Hello everyone from Spektrum,&nbsp;This week, Deniz Kaptan from the University of Minnesota wrote about the talks at the Davos 2023&nbsp;Summit, where the inadequacy of the global economic system against today's problems was on the agenda. He evaluated the outputs of the summit.&nbsp;Also this week, we summarised public opinion polls on politics and Turkey's changing sociology. &nbsp;Hope to see you in the next issue,Bartu Özden&nbsp;

Weekly politics publication focusing on Turkey, city agendas, and international policy.

Spektrum

AK Party's increase in votes, the public's perception of SADAT, global polarisation and pessimism.

Weekly insights: Talks at Davos 2023 and Turkey's Trends

Hello everyone from Spektrum,Today, I have discussed the debates that arose over Gelecek (Future) Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu's words regarding the authority to sign that the leaders of the parties in the Six Party Table will have during the transition process. I focused on overcoming the environment of uncertainty and ensuring justice in representation. In addition, we also summarised the polls on the election agenda and the economy.Hope to see you in the next issue,Bartu Özden&nbsp;

The 2023 election turns into a referendum on Turkey's administrative system.

Weekly insights: Authority to sign, uncertainty, and fairness in representation

Hello everyone from Spektrum,In this issue, Abdullah writes about the changes in the Turkish defence industry in the last 20 years and the restructuring process. He also examines the relationship between the change in the defence industry and the authoritarian regime created by the AK Party, and summarises the rent that the established structure provided to the government.Hope to see you in the next issue,Enjoy!&nbsp;-İlkim Emirler

The changes in the defense industry in Turkey, its restructuring process and its relationship with the authoritarian regime created by the government.

Weekly insights: Turkish Defence Industry: Rent and Capital

Hello everyone,In this issue, Deniz Kaptan from the University of Minnesota discusses the political change in Brazil, where leftist Lula da Silva took over the presidency.We also compiled public opinion surveys and reports on the election agenda, citizens' livelihoods, and the government's moves towards the economic crisis.Hope to see you next week,Bartu Özden

While Lula da Silva took office, Bolsonaro, who lost the election, left the country.

Weekly insights: Things have calmed down in Brazil: President Lula

Hello everyone,In this issue, I have summarised Turkey's political agenda in 2022. In the year when political tensions were quite high; bans, corruption, and poverty were on the agenda again. Opposition parties, on the other hand, were trying to offer a way out to society.&nbsp;We wish that the 100th anniversary of our Republic will bring democracy, justice, freedom, and development to Turkey.&nbsp;Happy New Year!Bartu Özden

We have gathered together the political agenda of Turkey in 2022.

🎄Turkey in 2022

Hello everyone,In this issue,, Abdullah discusses the outputs of the Sino-Arab Summit, which is significant to the international politics and shows China's growing interest in the Middle East.&nbsp;We also summarized surveys on the economic crisis, the status of cemevis and the government system.&nbsp;Hope to see you next week,Bartu Özden

Spektrum discusses the outputs of the Sino-Arab summit

Weekly insights: International political balances

Hello everyone,Today, I discussed the approaches of the ruling AK Party and MHP to foreign policy in their programs. While trying to catch some contradictions between programs and policies, I gave my comments on the decisive influence of the MHP in Turkey’s foreign policy.Moreover, we summarized the latest public opinion polls on the mining disaster in Bartın, the right to free food in public schools and discrimination in society.Hope to see you next week,Bartu Özden

Spektrum discussed the approaches of the ruling AK Party and MHP to foreign policy in their programs.

Weekly insights: Foreign policies of ruling parties

Hello everyone,Today, Abdullah shares his thoughts that the improvements proposed by the Turkish opposition will not be enough for the exit from the crisis, and that a new vision is needed which will redefine the role of the state.In addition, we have compiled the latest opinion polls on the desired characteristics of the opposition's presidential candidate and the feelings of the citizens about the course of the country.Hope to see you next week,Bartu Özden

The opposition's view of political economy and what needs to be improved

Weekly insights: The opposition's perspective

Hello everyone,AK Party government plans to make a constitutional change, in order to underline that a family can only be consisted “by a male and a female”. This means a constitutional obstacle in front of homosexual marriage is being constructed. Today, İlkim tells about the equality of marriage.Then, I tell about the increasing conflict in the Middle East. While Turkey is planning for a ground operation in Syria, the most far-right government in Israel’s history is coming to power. Moreover, the secular rebellion in Iran is still going on. The mullah regime’s disproportionate use of force risks the country’s territorial integrity and the region’s stability.&nbsp;We also summarized the recent opinion polls regarding to the current politics.Hope to see you next week,Bartu Özden

Spectrum first looks at the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and then examines gender dynamics in Turkey and around the world.

Weekly insights: Gender debates and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East

Hello everyone,Election time is approaching. However, we do not think that the values of the parties and their views on fundamental issues are adequately understood and discussed. Politics is shaped by daily discussions and becomes incapable of creating solutions.In this issue, I analyze the perspective of the People's Alliance, which consists of the AK Party, MHP and BBP, on fundamental rights. I try to highlight the overlaps or contradictions between programs and practice.Then, we summarized some latest opinion polls on the voter behaviour. These polls demonstrate the increasing popularity of imprisoned leader Selahattin Demirtaş among the HDP voters, the vote share of the alliances and the reputation of Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.Hope to see you next week,Bartu Özden

İn this issue discussed the approach of political parties in Turkey to fundamental rights.

Weekly insights: approaches to fundamental rights in Turkey

Politics related articles and publications

Politics

Social issues related articles and publications

Social Issues

Organised with the slogan of Cooperation in a Fragmented World, the 53rd Davos Summit brought together approximately 2,500 leaders from 130 countries on the basis of states, companies, and international organisations, 52 of which are heads of state/prime ministers. In this article, I will examine the prominent themes of the meeting that took place between 16-20 January.The World Economic Forum (WEF) was founded in 1971 as an international foundation headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. The foundation, which has more than a thousand member companies, is financed by the contributions of these companies. While developments affecting the world economy, such as Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, continued; this year, country and company leaders came together under the risk of economic recession.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Main themes of the year</h2>Interrelated themes included new energy, climate change, employment, tourism, health, technology, and banking.In addition to the rising climate crisis, the need for a sustainable and affordable new energy source&nbsp;was one of the most important items on the agenda in terms of protecting both companies and individuals, especially with the effect of the recent changing discourse and sanctions against countries, such as Russia and Iran. On the other hand, young people who had the chance to speak at the session on climate change stated the need to act globally and drew attention to the changes that must happen.Especially the continuation of the effects of Covid-19, as well as the interrupted production chain as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, makes the issue of employment crucial from different perspectives. While the theme of tourism readdressed the problems related to Covid-19, women's health&nbsp;and what could be changed globally this year were discussed with the theme of health. Under the theme of technology, the innovations of artificial intelligence in predicting and preventing large-scale fires were emphasised. Finally, under the theme of banking, the digitalisation of trade and its ability to meet the world's needs were discussed.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The ineffectiveness of the Biden government drew attention</h2>In addition to the absence of President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken from the US government, which manages the economy of the world's 1st or 2nd country according to different calculations, three Council of Ministers Advisors who attended the forum did not make opening speeches. It was said that Davos 2023 was greeted with silence by the Biden government. Bloomberg columnist Saleha Mohsin noted that former US President Donald Trump is the only US President to attend Davos twice, writing that Biden received support from the American working class and ‘made clear to his supporters that Davos, an elite forum, is not his style.’ .On the other hand, the participation of only Chancellor Olaf Scholz from Germany, among the G-7 countries other than the USA, was one of the issues that were emphasised. Former political advisor Ed Owen noted that despite citing the busy agendas of most government representatives, in fact, politicians in many countries cannot afford ‘being seen hobnobbing with a global financial elite’ while the public is struggling to make ends meet.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Rising powers came to the fore at Davos, as well</h2>Although companies, banks, and participants from major international organisations have shown the influence of western states in the forum, countries such as China and India, which have recently resolutely reflected their economic and political powers, seem to have created a wider sphere of influence in the forum, especially with the low participation from the governments of the G-7 countries.Speeches on topics that will affect the economy and social transformation, such as India-focused energy transformation and gender equality, were among the prominent topics of the forum. India, which is predicted to be the world's third economy with more than 10 trillion dollars in 2035, has been recorded as one of the important country economies where most of this year's themes are discussed together.On the other hand, Xinhua, a Chinese government affiliated news agency, wrote that China had an impact as an important participant while underlining that there was no participant from Russia in Davos 2023 and that policies that would isolate Russia were advocated by European countries, representatives, and companies. Observing that the focus has shifted from economic growth to resilience in Davos 2023, Xinhua news also once again stated that it is a lesson learnt from the forum that ‘only in unity can the global community make steady progress and achieve its long-term goals’.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Ukraine did not fall wide from the agenda</h2>One of the important topics was the latest situation in Ukraine. It was noted that President Volodymyr Zelenski 's wife, Olena Zelenska, gave a letter to the Chinese delegation at the Davos Summit, which was ‘an invitation to dialogue with Beijing’. It is thought that China, which has become one of the important actors in shaping international public opinion and politics, may turn the balance against Russia. Thus, during the Davos Summit, we observed the importance of unity not only in global disaster scenarios, such as the climate crisis, but also in regional crises.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Can Davos 2023 offer a solution?</h2>If we go beyond the perspectives of individual countries, the most important point that Davos 2023, attended by DEVA Party leader Ali Babacan from Turkey, revealed, was that the global economic system was insufficient and created problems for today's political economic conjuncture. Therefore, what Davos 2023, where we have witnessed many conversations about the worrying issues of the last period, such as renewable energy, energy security, and climate change, can and will not change in practice is an issue that needs to be talked about.The forum, which creates a platform for both short-term and long-term policy recommendations, also continues to deal with these issues in its following publications, stating that we have entered a major global transformation, targeting 2030. However, Davos Summits, speeches, and publications, which are criticised as ‘meeting of the elite’, are often not enough to affect the practice.&nbsp;One reason is that the participants are representatives from countries and big companies that are already destroying nature for economic development. UN Secretary-General Guterres pointed to this issue and stated that ‘fossil fuel producers and their enablers are still racing to expand production, knowing full well that their business model is inconsistent with human survival.’. With these words, Guterres underlined the limits of the World Economic Forum. After the Davos Summit, which is a platform where ideas are put forward and discussed, we will observe the changes that will take place in practice and therefore the sincerity of the participants in the upcoming period.

Davos 2023: What was talked about at the ‘meeting of the elite’?

‘The leaders at the Six Party Table will have the same signing authority as the President.’ said Gelecek (Future) Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu last week. The statement was very controversial.Claiming that if the candidate of the Six Party Table is elected president and acts against the will of the general presidents, a ‘crisis’&nbsp;will arise and re-elections will be held, Davutoğlu said, ‘If I am at that table, I will have the right to speak.’. The former prime minister announced that the leaders will be vice-presidents, each party at the table will receive a ministry, and the remaining ministries will be shared according to the votes of the parties.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Reactions were quick</h2>It was claimed that the other parties in the Six Party Table were disturbed by the ‘a crisis would breakout’ discourse. Davutoğlu's statement that says six party leaders will be given the authority to sign on the actions of the president has also been interpreted as ‘a new tutelage system’&nbsp;that will stand against a president who will be elected with the support of more than half of the voters. İYİ Party spokesperson Kürşad Zorlu made the following statement on the subject:&nbsp;<blockquote fr-original-style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(37, 44, 60); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px;" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(37, 44, 60); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px; margin: 0px 0px 1em; border-left-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box;">‘Such an evaluation has not been made under the aforementioned title in the Six Party Table. But there is one thing, in the framework I mentioned, a President will combat Turkey's deep-rooted and chronic problems. In doing so, it will act within the framework of the transition process roadmap and government program that we will probably launch on January 30th. To prepare the conditions for the President to work more healthily by putting the common mind of the Six Party Table into action there. Yes, the İYİ Party supports this, but within the framework you mentioned, we do not find an approach such as 'The President will do this because we said so, they will not do this because we told them not to' right and our nation does not find it right either.’</blockquote>Minister of Justice Bekir Bozdağ said,&nbsp;‘Executive power/duty cannot be delegated, a partner cannot be used, and a partnership cannot be accepted unless the Constitution is amended. Despite these clear provisions of the Constitution, the decisions or practices to be taken by the leaders of the Six Party Table would be the de facto partial abolition of the Constitution, the civil coup against the executive organ, the usurpation of the powers and duties of the President, the tying of the President's hands, feet, and mouth.’.President Erdoğan, on the other hand, blamed the opposition on Davutoğlu's words, ‘While everyone is waiting for a candidate, it has been decided that they will rule the country with six people. My brothers, six captains sink a ship. A ship sails with a single captain. Two drivers make a car crash for sure. They invented a system that is unique in the world to switch to the parliamentary system. The president they chose would be responsible to six people at the table, not one of the two people who voted for them.’ he said.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Davutoğlu: 'No tutelage'</h2>Making a statement again on these discussions, Davutoğlu stated that he said ‘something principled’. ‘We will never bring a president who will work under tutelage to work. They will be a strong president; but the current president cannot decide on their own. We agreed that the party leaders should be vice presidents. In other words, there is no picture saying that the party leaders will sit outside, they will be the tutelage of the President.’ he said.Davutoğlu said that those who interpret his statements as tutelage are ‘those who surrender to the logic of the Presidential System of Government, in which only one person has all the authority with one mind’, and that a common mind will work like the old coalition periods.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Reassurance to conservatives?</h2>The Six Party Table claims to defeat the authoritarian Cumhur Alliance by bringing together social democrats, nationalists, centre-rightists, and conservatives who stand for democracy. In order to realise this claim, it feels the obligation to arouse confidence in all these social segments.&nbsp;In line with this goal, it is of great importance to overcome the distrust of the conservatives towards the CHP from years ago and to believe that the Six Party Table will provide Turkey with a healthy transition period. The way to accelerate the disintegration in the Cumhur Alliance and to convince the indecisive conservatives passes through this. The CHP administration, who is aware of this, also draws attention to the discourse of saying goodbye, its self-criticism about the past of the party and its attempts to provide legal guarantee for the headscarf.Therefore, it is possible to interpret Davutoğlu's words as a guarantee to conservatives that the joint Presidential candidate of the opposition will not follow policies other than the promises made today after the election. Davutoğlu is striving to create a base made up of former AK Party voters with the excitement of not being able to catch the exit he hoped for in the polls.On the other hand, Davutoğlu's words reveal two main problems that the Six Party Table is facing.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Overcoming uncertainty</h2>The 2023 election turns into a referendum on Turkey's administrative system. Although some think that if the AK Party loses the election, it will take a stand in favour of not continuing the current system, but it is a big risk for the opposition parties to prepare for the elections by relying on this.For the Strengthened Parliamentary System, which is the biggest common promise of the opposition, to come into effect, it needs to reach a majority in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey that will change the constitution, or at least take the constitutional amendment proposal to a referendum.Whether this majority will be achieved, how the system change calendar will work, and what kind of policies the next President will follow before the system change, despite all the policy sets announced by the Six Party Table, creates uncertainty in the minds of the vast majority of the people for now. It does not seem possible to resolve this uncertainty without the joint government program expected to be announced in February, the roadmap for the transition and the presidential candidate. Even if they are not satisfied with the stability and every step of the government, it is not possible to convince the voters, who are likely to support the predictability of the system, to a change full of uncertainties.The emphasis on&nbsp;‘a crisis will arise’ in Davutoğlu's statements, while trying to reassure conservatives, magnifies this uncertainty, brings to mind bad scenarios and harms the efforts of the opposition, which is currently struggling to increase its votes. It increases the recipients of the ruling party's communication strategy, which underlines doubts about the opposition's ability to manage and disagreements among themselves.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Ensuring fairness in representation</h2>The Six Party Table, while promising to form a coalition of a size that is rare in the history of world democracy, also creates confusion about how it will provide justice in representation. Of course, every party sitting at the table has to contribute to the government program and is expected. However, an administration in which the parties have an equal voice regardless of their vote share, that is, their response in the public, also brings with it the danger of violating the principle of fairness in representation.The fact that the CHP and İYİ Party, which are likely to receive the support of more than 40% of the voters, will not be able to decide on any policy without the signatures of the parties, which are expected to remain in single digits, not only undermines justice in representation, but also has the possibility of lowering the motivation&nbsp;of party organisations and voters.In order to increase the chances of success, the Six Party Table should eliminate the question marks about uncertainty, detail how it will ensure fairness in representation, and ensure social consensus by starting a joint communication campaign in which it explains what and how it will do in a language that everyone can understand, without wasting any more time, and by announcing its candidate. In today's environment, every day that passes harms the opposition, highlights the rivalry between the opposition parties and reduces the possibility of total change.

Authority to sign, uncertainty, and fairness in representation

Turkish Defence Industry: Rent and Capital

Jair Bolsonaro, who has never fallen from the list of authoritarian rulers, lost by a margin of 2 million votes in Brazil's second round of presidential elections. His replacement, former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, assumed the presidency again on January 1. On December 30, Bolsonaro traveled to Florida on a Brazilian Air Force plane.&nbsp;As Bartu Özden points out in his article on the subject, the election results in October created a new period of uncertainty regarding Bolsonaro's reaction and possible statements. Before the elections, Bolsonaro called on his base to take up arms and stated that he would not recognise the elections if Lula da Silva won. In this respect, it was a matter of curiosity whether Bolsonaro, who showed an attitude similar to Trump's attitude towards the elections in the US, would accept the election results.Bolsonaro vs. LulaIn 2018, Bolsonaro, the presidential candidate of the Social Liberal Party, made headlines with the amount of donations he raised during his campaign, but one of the factors in his election was the jailing of Lula da Silva on corruption charges. Lula da Silva, President from 2003-2010, was <a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/JYs4mLHnZ-QU?c=AAsB31I77Agt1YLpy0BqQ&s=web' rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">released</a> by court order after serving 580 days of a 12-year prison sentence. On the other hand, the imprisonment of the leader, who was the head of one of the mainstream parties and former President of the Republic has further increased polarisation between left-wing supporters of Lula da Silva and right-wing supporters of Bolsonaro.Bolsonaro traveling to FloridaOn January 1, the day of Lula da Silva's inauguration, Bolsonaro had already arrived in Florida, thus canceling the handover ceremony. ‘I’m on a flight, I’ll be back soon.’&nbsp;Bolsonaro told CNN Brazil. ‘Brazil will not end on January 1, you can be sure about that.’ he told his supporters in a recording, referring to Lula's presidency, while the rest of Bolsonaro's government <a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/jDzI17Xsu2vQ?c=AAsB31I77Agt1YLpy0BqQ&s=web' rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">announced</a> that they would work with the new team in the process of changing the government.&nbsp;On the other hand, Bolsonaro supporters went to military barracks to protest the election results without providing evidence and called on the military to take action. The new Minister of Justice and Public Security, Flávio Dino, responded to the protesters who received no answer from the military. Dino declared the protesting groups terrorists and said there would be no amnesty for terrorists, their supporters, and financiers.Brazil under LulaThe people and the economy of Brazil, which went through the pandemic under the Bolsonaro administration, suffered heavy blows. Lula da Silva, one of whose most important promises is to ‘bring back the good times of steak and beer’, has a tough road ahead of him.According to the <a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/4gRSxWy5VM7M?c=AAsB31I77Agt1YLpy0BqQ&s=web' rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, compared to the period of economic growth and poverty reduction between 2003 and 2010, under Lula's current administration the country's economy is shrinking due to both internal and external factors. Among the most prominent problems are the losses caused by the pandemic, problems in production, the environment damaged by the Amazon fires, and social polarisation.&nbsp;Agenda of the new governmentLula's messages indicate that he is aware of the biggest problems from which the people suffer. In his first speech to Congress, Lula promised to ‘build a new nation in Brazil with and for everyone, without revenge’, and in several speeches he announced to take actions to end the destruction of the Amazonas, and <a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/RAfMsKcy3HWS?c=AAsB31I77Agt1YLpy0BqQ&s=web' rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">appointed&nbsp;</a>Marina Silva, one of Brazil's most important activists, as Minister of Environment and Climate.&nbsp;On the other hand, underlining that the country has lost at least 680 thousand citizens as a result of Bolsonaro's pandemic-era policies, he stated that they will follow the necessary legal procedures in this regard. Lula also <a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/2KTmrxHM8m5i?c=AAsB31I77Agt1YLpy0BqQ&s=web' rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">announced</a> that he would transform Brazil from the world's food producer into a ‘green superpower’.&nbsp;These promises and the first steps that follow, which are greeted with enthusiasm by at least half of the population, may be hampered by the economic and social difficulties the country is facing. How far the new government will follow its agenda remains to be seen.Most importantly, Bolsonaro's electoral defeat offers a new perspective on the analysis and expectations of Bolsonaro, painting a portrait of an autocrat, who loses power through elections while trying to gather political and economic power around him.&nbsp;

Things have calmed down in Brazil: President Lula

Turkey in 2022

Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, hosted the 1st China-Arab Summit on December 9. The Summit, attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the leaders of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Tunisia, Kuwait, and Sudan, was closely watched to monitor China's growing influence on the Middle East and the course of the US-China struggle. In addition to the Arab Summit, Xi Jinping also attended the African Summit with the leaders of African countries.<img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1671352437462.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" width="550" ratio="1.92" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">APChina’s President Jinping received an official welcome in Saudi Arabia, a country of great importance for his Middle East and energy policy, and described his visit as ‘the beginning of a new era’ that will further deepen cooperation between the two countries in various areas. Jinping said that China aims to cooperate with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries in the fields of nuclear energy, nuclear security, and space exploration, signaling that his country will invest more in the Middle East in the following period.Projects that articulate with one anotherChina's Middle East policy is centred on Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, and the Gulf countries, which are critical to the flow and security of energy supply. On December 8, one day before the China-Arab Summit, Jinping traveled to Riyadh, where he signed the ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement’ between China and Saudi Arabia with King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia.In this context, 34 investment agreements were signed between the two countries, and it was agreed that Saudi Arabia's vision for the future, called ‘Vision 2030’, which aims to expand the sectoral diversification of its economy, and China's ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ project, which stretches from Asia-Pacific to Europe, will be developed in tandem with each other. Commenting on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Investment Khalid Al Falih announced that his country signed a 50 billion-dollar investment agreement with China.Cooperation between China and the Arab countries has increased in recent years, ranging from the defense industry to technology transfer. China's arms sales to the Middle East and Gulf countries have increased dramatically in recent years, while China-based construction companies have undertaken massive infrastructure and new settlement projects in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.On the other hand, the Chinese government, which sells ‘facial recognition technologies’ to Gulf countries, especially to the UAE and Bahrain, is also conducting joint research projects in the field of artificial intelligence with these countries. Seeking to further increase its share and importance in world trade, China is continuously expanding its port and logistics investments in the Middle East, Gulf and African countries as part of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.China's growing interest in the Middle EastThe Chinese Communist Party, which rules the world's most populous country with an authoritarian system, sees securing energy supplies as one of the main goals of its foreign policy &nbsp;to maintain high growth rates and job creation for the stability of the system. Energy and transportation are the main sectors of the Belt and Road Initiative, with 44% of the project budget allocated directly to energy investments. Fossil fuels account for 91% of the energy investments made by Chinese banks in target countries under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, the Middle East countries are the largest suppliers of the oil supply that China needs, and therefore, both politically and economically, the countries of the region have become a focal point for the Chinese government.The table below shows the Middle Eastern countries have a great share in China’s oil imports. China’s huge dependence on the Middle East’s oil reserves has led China to become more economically and politically active in the region and to strengthen its existing cooperation and alliances. <img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1671362535952.png" width="550" height="156" ratio="3.53" style="width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" fr-original-style="width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">Middle East crude oil export statistics to ChinaAt the December 9 summit, Xi Jinping also pledged greater use of the yuan for gas and oil imports from Gulf countries. Jinping has long placed the use of the yuan in bilateral trade as an alternative to the dollar, an important symbol of US hegemony, at the centre of his foreign trade policy. By increasing the strength and share of the yuan in international trade, Jinping wants to show China's rise as a new superpower to the whole world.Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, China has invested more than 123 billion dollars in the Middle East and North Africa. Meanwhile, it has greatly increased its trade volume with Middle Eastern countries, becoming the leading trading partner of many countries in the region.China, Saudi Arabia's number one trading partner, signed a partnership agreement in 2017 to build a drone manufacturing factory there. Today, it is steadily increasing its military cooperation and investments with Saudi Arabia.On the other hand, the trade volume between Iraq and China increased by 1000% between 2008-2018, reaching 30 billion dollars. Iraq has become China's third largest oil supplier, while China has become Iraq's largest trading partner and foreign investor.Moreover, Iran, which has a strategic importance for China politically, militarily, and economically, signed a ‘25-Year Cooperation Agreement’ in March 2021. Iran has a strategic position in China's energy imports, both because it has huge oil reserves and because around 40% of China's oil imports are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, it has a key role in the Eurasian leg of the Belt and Road Initiative, as it has land access to Azerbaijan and Central Asian states with large oil and natural gas resources. Like many Middle Eastern countries, Iran's primary trading partner is China, and according to EU Commission data, Iran exchanges 28.6% of its imports and 40.4% of its exports with China.China is as dependent on foreign suppliers of natural gas as it is on crude oil, and Qatar, the world's largest exporter of liquid natural gas along with Australia, is of great importance to China. Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports to China account for 28% of China's domestic consumption, giving Qatar a strategic significance for China's energy security.China fills the gap brought on by the USDuring Xi Jinping's visit to the Gulf countries in 2018, important agreements were made with the countries in the region in the fields of defense and telecommunications. The UAE signed a deal to use US-sanctioned Huawei's 5G infrastructure and bought Chinese-made L-15 jets after the Biden administration halted the purchase of US-made F-35 fighter jets.&nbsp;Saudi Arabia, which remains heavily dependent on the United States in the fields of defense and security, is also deepening its defense cooperation with China, especially the import of drones, while transferring know-how from Chinese companies in nuclear energy, which is of great importance for the Vision 2030 plan. The Gulf states' deepening cooperation with China in the areas of defense, energy, and telecommunications is fundamentally aimed at creating the necessary resources to move away from the US and pursue an independent foreign policy.The US Congress has conditioned investment, cooperation, and sales in both military technology and nuclear energy on its own foreign policy priorities, forcing Gulf states to seek alternative alliances. In this sense, authoritarian countries such as Russia and China, with their realistic foreign policy, offer an important alternative to authoritarian Gulf monarchies seeking ‘unconditional’ interlocutors in defense industry, nuclear energy, and communication technologies.In China's case, the main motivation for its massive economic investments and bilateral agreements in the Middle East is energy supply, which is vital to maintain stable growth rates.The US withdrawal from the Middle East, which started with Donald Trump and continued with Joe Biden, is creating political and economic opportunities in the region for China. In addition to cooperation and trade agreements, China has signed astronomical arms deals with Iran and Saudi Arabia, and conducts joint military exercises and intelligence sharing with Iran. Especially given the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for oil supplies, Iran's strong military presence in the region and ensuring the security of sea routes is highly crucial for China.In order to take bilateral relations to a higher level and secure energy imports and trade agreements, China has signed cooperation and partnership agreements with many Middle Eastern countries, and with the China-Arab Summit, these relations have been institutionalized and bilateral partnerships have been extended to a wide range of fields, especially nuclear energy. It can be said that the Iranian factor is the biggest obstacle to the deepening of China-Gulf relations in the following period. The regional conflicts and leadership struggle between Iran and the Gulf states will force China to develop relations that stabilize the region and satisfy both sides.

China and the Middle East: Institutionalisation of relationships

Foreign policy in the AKP programThe AKP states in its program that Turkey's location is a magnet for many collaborations and that the use of this potential ‘depends on the wise use of geopolitics.’ Turkey needs to reorganise its relations with power centres in an ‘alternative, flexible, and multi-axis’ manner while claiming that ‘the quality of military alliances and blocs as the determining factor of international relations has significantly diminished’, even though the opposite is true today, especially after Russia invading Ukraine and the NATO’s role getting bigger.The governing party promises ‘a realistic foreign policy based on mutual interest relations.’ Instead of relying solely on the bureaucracy for foreign policy decision-making and implementation, the party also aims to involve parliament and society. Turkey, ‘an element of regional stability with its democracy, economy, and respect for human rights,’ will take more initiative to resolve crises and increase efforts to maintain good relations with its neighbours, based on dialogue.Good relations with European countries and the European Union will be established, ‘the conditions for EU membership will be met as soon as possible, and the agenda will be prevented from being occupied with artificial problems.’ It is stated that cooperation with the US will continue, with an emphasis on defense, and that there will be more cooperation in the fields of economy, investment, science, and technology, and that ‘friendly relations based on cooperation rather than competition’ will be established with Russia. ‘In addition to the traditional Atlantic and European dimensions of Turkish foreign policy, efforts to develop a Eurasian-oriented policy will continue.’ It is said that closer relations will be established with China and the dynamic economies of Asia.<img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670749479822.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.51" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">Daily SabahWith Greece, it is stated that ‘relations based on economic interests will continue to increase, and the environment of trust that these relations will create will prepare the ground for the solution of more complex political problems.’ It is argued that the solution in Cyprus should be based on a compromise between the two states.The AKP advocates the development of relations with the Central Asian Turkic Republics. It is said that ‘special importance’ will be given to relations with Islamic countries and that efforts will be made for the Organization of the Islamic Conference to gain a more reputable place in the international arena.It is stated that new areas of cooperation have emerged in the Black Sea and the Caucasus with the end of the Cold War. Some say that Turkey will try to contribute to the economic integration of the Caucasus, which has underground and aboveground resources, with the Middle East and the Balkans.Efforts will also be made to further protect the rights of Turkish citizens living abroad.Practical differences&nbsp;Although the AKP claimed to have a realist foreign policy vision, it pursued an anti-realist idealist foreign policy at the expense of not maximising Turkey's national interests, especially in the process that started with the Arab Spring. This ‘pan-Islamist’ idealism became unsustainable when the coup that overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt turned into a permanent government, and the Assad regime in Syria did not fall. Turkey has become an isolated country in its region due to the AKP's idealistic foreign policy that is detached from reality. It has become so hard to protect its rights and interests, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean.President Erdoğan's demand for a meeting with Bashar al-Assad, whom he criticised with harsh words years ago, and severed all diplomatic relations with, or with Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, with whom he recently shook hands, or his role as a mediator in the invasion of Ukraine by differentiating himself from Western countries and pursuing a policy that does not put his interests at risk, can be considered as the clearest indicators of the return from idealism to realism.&nbsp;<img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670749512908.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">BBCTurkey has become the country with the highest inflation rate in Europe under the AKP rule. It ranked 147th out of 179 countries in the latest Democracy Report of the Gothenburg University Institute for Varieties of Democracy. In 2021, 22% of all applications to the European Court of Human Rights for human rights violations were related to Turkey. As a result, Turkey has moved far away from the AKP program's claim to be ‘an element of regional stability with its democracy, economy, and respect for human rights’ and to take the initiative in regional crises.While it is possible to say that the AKP's foreign policy towards Russia, the Caucasus, and Eurasia is consistent in practice, it is impossible to talk about an effort to complete the EU membership requirements. On the contrary, relations between the EU and Turkey are experiencing one of the coldest periods in history. Opposing the program, it is also difficult to talk about an effort to improve relations with the US and Greece. On the other hand, given the attitudes of the EU, the US, and Greece towards Turkey, it would be unfair to the ruling party to explain this situation solely by the AKP's policies.Foreign policy in the MHP program&nbsp;The MHP program also emphasises the importance of Turkey's geostrategic position. It advocates a ‘realistic, Turkey-centred, and multifaceted foreign policy based on a national strategy based on mutual interest.’Addressing the issue of foreign policy in more detail than the AKP in its program, the MHP defines the goal of its foreign policy as ‘protecting and developing Turkey's national security and national interests; creating a belt of peace, stability, and security around us; establishing relations based on mutual respect and mutual benefit with all countries, especially our neighbours; finding fair and lasting solutions to existing problems within the framework of international law by protecting Turkey's rights and interests.’While aiming for Turkey to be a strong, respected, trusted, listened to, and sought-after country, it is emphasised that ‘respect for national culture, territorial integrity, and unitary state structure’ is a red line. It underlines the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, and demands ‘a foreign policy with personality that takes into account not only commercial but also historical and cultural dimensions’.Like the AKP, the MHP advocates Turkey's leadership in increasing cooperation between the Caucasus, the Balkans, and the Middle East, while opposing ‘global projects that destabilise the region and bring blood and tears.’ What these projects are is not explained in the program.The party advocates a deterrent foreign policy within the framework of legitimacy ‘against countries that carry historical enmities against Turkey into the present and target Turkey's national interests.’ However, the party does not explain which countries are hostile to Turkey, nor what deterrent foreign policy means.The priority area of interest of the foreign policy is defined as the Turkic world, and it is aimed to develop and deepen economic, social, political, and cultural relations with Cyprus, the Caucasus, Central-Asian Turkic Republics, and Balkan countries.<img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670749552156.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">TürkgünUnlike the AKP, the MHP characterises Cyprus as Turkey's ‘most important national cause.’ It argues that the only realistic solution on the island is a two-nation, two-state structure and closes the door to the idea of federation.The party sees the need for a redefinition of relations with the EU but opposes the idea that the issue is a ‘question of identity and destiny’ for Turkey. It underlines that Turkey ‘does not need to be dragged into the EU orbit’. However, if the EU observes Turkey's sensitivities on national unity, terrorism, separatism, Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia; it would be reasonable to continue partnership negotiations.It is advocated that relations with the US should be ‘carried out based on equality and reciprocity in a way to serve the mutual interests of both sides in economic, political, and security dimensions,’ and that joint economic projects should be developed with Russia, Iran, Balkan, and Middle Eastern countries based on peace, stability, and regional cooperation and that a dynamic economic cooperation environment should be created with African, Far East, and South East Asian countries. The MHP calls this approach a ‘multilateral foreign policy.’Special emphasis is placed on the territorial integrity of Iraq, and the importance of ‘protecting the rights of the Turkmen presence in Iraq and preventing Iraqi territory from posing a security threat to Turkey’ are underlined. In the face of the terrorist threat to Turkey from Iraqi territory, it is stated that ‘Turkey will use its rights arising from international law to eliminate terrorist elements.’MHP's decisive influenceIt is evident from the programs of the two parties that the fact that the MHP, which has a comprehensive foreign policy program, has become a partner in the government has led to changes in Turkey's foreign policy. It can be said that the MHP, which emphasises a ‘realist’ foreign policy, has been instrumental in bringing the government back to a realist line.<img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670749577085.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.88" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">İHAMoreover, the MHP, whose sensitivity to the Cyprus issue is reflected in its program, can also be interpreted as having played a role in the AKP's insistence on a two-state solution, which had once supported the establishment of a federative structure in Cyprus with the Annan Plan. The MHP also played a role in the AKP's pursuit of a deterrent foreign policy in the Middle East through cross-border campaigns, its failure to advance EU accession negotiations, and its strong support for Azerbaijan in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.Finally, it is significant to note that neither party has included the Syria policy, which closely concerns Turkey's national security, nor the Libya policy, which concerns Turkey's interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, in its programs. &nbsp;

How do the AK Party and MHP view foreign policy?

On January 24, 1980, the economic reform program prepared by Turgut Özal, then-Undersecretary of the Prime Ministry, and adopted by the Nationalist Front government headed by Süleyman Demirel, was a public announcement of a structural transformation that went down in history as the ‘January 24 Decisions’.Neoliberalism instead of the import-substitution systemThe import-substitution system, which had offered a development strategy to developing countries, particularly in Latin America, since the 1960s, was implemented in Turkey for about 20 years. However, it collapsed after a major currency crisis. Turgut Özal, who wanted to implement in Turkey the neoliberal economic policies pioneered by Ronald Reagan in the US and Margaret Thatcher in the UK in line with the global economic and political system, implemented a radical economic reform package which was prepared in this direction.<img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670149773990.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">AAThe new political order and ideological doctrine created by the military coup of September 12, 1980, together with the restructuring of the economy in line with neoliberal reforms, created a new political-economic order that is still valid in 2022. One of the most prominent features of this new system, which has many goals and consequences, such as the systematic contraction of workers' rights, the suppression of trade union activities, the continuous growth of capital at the expense of labour, and the domination of labour, and the reduction of real wages, has been the redefinition of the duties and responsibilities of the state.Since 1980, the state apparatus, which was supposed to serve as a mediator, arbitrator, and bridge between workers and employers, or between the constitution and citizens, has allied with capital in almost every field against workers, citizens, and disadvantaged segments of society, while all institutions and law regulating the economy, politics, and social life have been designed by this job description.Patching instead of reformingIn this period, when we are about to enter the 100th anniversary of the Republic, the opposition parties that want to overthrow the authoritarian AKP government, which has been in power for 20 years, and rebuild a ‘democratic-secular-egalitarian’ Turkey have failed to produce a vision that would radically change the dominant ideology and political-economic order established in 1980, even though they have produced policies to reorganise the economy, politics and social life and prepared a constitutional amendment package for a radical reform, especially the opposition alliance. This blockage is most prominent in economic policies.<img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670149810539.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.77" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">HabertürkThe policies proposed by the opposition parties to get out of the economic crisis, which has been going on since 2018, but has been dragging the middle and lower classes of society towards the hunger line since last year, do not fundamentally change the system. No reform package would reorganise the distribution of both income and wealth, revive the collapsing welfare state, and act as a mediator/arbitrator between labour and capital rather than siding with capital against labour. The economic reform packages and crisis exit prescriptions proposed by the CHP, İYİP, and DEVA Party do not propose a new economic model, but emphasise the idea that the current system is not working due to the wrong policies of the government and that the system can be put back on track with the right policies proposed by them.For example, Ali Babacan, the leader of the DEVA Party, states that during his ministerial term there was a large inflow of foreign resources into Turkey, but as a result of the authoritarianism of the government and the elimination of the rule of law, the inflow of foreign resources stopped and outflows began. While this proposition is partially true, Babacan's proposals for solutions and reforms for the Turkish economy do not go beyond suggesting that once his party comes to power, capital inflows to Turkey will increase again and per capita income will rise.Likewise, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu thinks that he can solve Turkey's chronic unemployment problem by ‘appointing a university graduate assistant to every muhtar’ or finding the solution to Turkey's low savings rate or current account deficit problems by attracting foreign investors from London to Turkey.These examples demonstrate that the opposition parties that want to overthrow the AKP government, which has ruled Turkey for 20 years, and build a new Turkey are unable to move even one step away from the dominant political-economic order and ideological domination that was put in place in 1980 and which experienced both its peak and collapse with the AKP. Created 42 years ago, we have repeatedly experienced that it is not possible to make a fundamental reform and create a new political, social and political-economic order with the existing institutions that regulate economic life in Turkey, one of the most advanced countries in the world in terms of income inequality, in a vicious and narrow political arena whose borders have been narrowed day by day during the AKP rule.Lessons to take from the Swedish modelPrevious experience shows how difficult it is to make a fundamental reform, build consensus among social actors, and create a new balance between capital and labour. But there are many examples to show that these are not impossible. In this sense, the political and economic transformations that took place in Sweden from the 1920s to the 1990s, even though the country is socially, politically, geographically, and economically very different from Turkey, will give us an idea of how it is possible to build a new system.The egalitarian and inclusive economic model created in Sweden, which has one of the strongest welfare systems in the world, is based on a long-standing state-capital-labour coalition. The state, which plays the role of mediator/arbitrator between capital and labour, is also the guarantor of the Swedish welfare model.The SDP (Social Democratic Party), which wanted to find a solution to the economic crisis of the late 1920s and to create an economic model targeting full employment, organised public hearings, and forums across the country to ensure that the ideas on which this new model was based were accepted by the society as well as politicians and bureaucrats. In this economic model, which emphasised full employment, strong social welfare mechanisms, and capital incentives; the state, which acted as a mediator between workers and employers, also reformed institutions and created new ones by this economic and political order.The point to highlight here is that, to fix the old system that was in a crisis, first of all, an idea to implement a new system should be put forward, and forums, meetings, and open sessions should be organised to ensure that it is accepted by all components of society, and then the existing institutions should be reformed according to the new order. To carry out a fundamental reform, it is necessary, first of all, to generate the ideas on which a new system is to be built, and for this to be accepted and adopted by society.Another important role of the state was to formalise and protect the informal agreement between workers and employers in the new economic model. In the economic order created with the goal of stable economic growth for employers and full employment for the working class, institutions were structured in line with these objectives. After about 20 years of institutional transformation and establishment of order, by the 1950s, the institutions that created the welfare state model in Sweden were in a stable state of functioning. The Swedish model of social democracy was based on the ideas of full employment, equality, and welfare.‘Without these ideas, the construction of such an institutional order would have been impossible.’ says Prof. Mark Blythe, who has done important work in the field of political economy, about the social democracy implemented in Sweden. Today, we see that the CHP claims to create an ‘equal and just economic order’ by emphasising its social democratic identity. However, the implementation of social democracy in Turkey can only be achieved if the existing institutions and the political and economic system undergo a radical change and the idea of social democracy is embraced by social actors. Therefore, it does not seem possible to change the current economic system based on deep inequalities by making small changes to the existing system or adding new ones to the existing institutions.<img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670149857879.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">Sverige RadioIn the 1970s, as the working class demanded greater rights and employers saw their profits decline, the social democratic system that had been established in Sweden in the 1930s began to slowly break down. Although major developments in the global economy, particularly the oil crisis, had an impact on the Swedish economy, it was the breakdown of the consensus between workers and employers that started the transformation of the system. While the employers had reached a consensus among themselves to change the existing system, in 1976, a pro-capitalist centre-right coalition came to power by overthrowing the Social Democratic Party. Under normal circumstances, the centre-right coalition was expected to make a radical transformation of the economy, taking into account the demands of the owners of capital.In a political and economic system in which the institutional structure established in the 1930s was functional, the right-wing parties failed to implement the reforms expected of them and faced a strong reaction from the owners of capital. The prime minister of the time is quoted as saying ‘Because we are still bound by the ideas of the working class.’ when asked, ‘Why do we still produce policies in favour of the working class despite having a pro-capitalist government?’. To overcome this intellectual and institutional entrapment, employers pursue long-term policies, creating a new economic model that will produce results in favor of capital through think tanks and sharing it with the public, while at the same time carrying out promotional activities with large advertising budgets so that the ideas of the new model are accepted by both politicians and society. They fund academia in the same way, constantly funding studies on the effects and benefits of neoliberal policies. As a result, both the establishment and the transformation of social democracy in Sweden are only possible if strong ideas about a new economic order are created and accepted by society, politics, and economic actors.Being able to go beyond the current boundariesIn the 2023 general elections, we see that the opposition alliance, which set out with the goal of rebuilding a democratic Turkey, could not go beyond the political and economic boundaries established in the 1980s, which are still dominant today. In an economic order where social income inequality is increasing day by day, the establishment of a system based on social democracy, as the CHP claims, can only be possible by producing a new idea, reaching a consensus between workers, employers, and the state, and reforming the entire institutional structure according to this new consensus.We can say that the same change is valid for the constitutional amendment package. The constitutional amendment package, which was prepared only by reaching a consensus among the party staff, will not be more than a small patch on the existing system unless it reflects a social demand and a social consensus is reached. If we want to redraw the boundaries of politics and build a new economic model based on equality, prosperity, and production, we need to come up with a strong and new idea to build these elements upon.

Political economy, social democracy and the power of ideas

Following the terrorist attack in Taksim, Turkey launched a military campaign against the terrorist organisation PKK and its extension YPG in the northern regions of Iraq and Syria ‘to eliminate terrorist attacks, ensure border security, and eliminate terrorism at its source.’ Pençe-Kılıç (Claw-Sword) organised the air campaign. President Erdoğan said ‘It will not be limited to an air campaign’ and signaled that a ground campaign is on the way.While the terrorist organisation threatened Turkey after the campaign, two people, including a child, were killed in rocket attacks in Gaziantep and Kilis. Many people were injured.Impending dangers in Afghanistan and IsraelClashes broke out on Sunday night in the border region between the Taliban, who took control of Afghanistan last year, and Pakistan, where Imran Khan's government was ousted in April. Although tensions have been reduced, it is obvious that the two administrations, which cannot agree on the control of the area called the Durand Line, will face each other again.In Israel, former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is expected to form the most nationalist government in the country's history with the support of the far right, who do not recognise Palestine's right to exist and think that Israel should annex all of Palestine.The revolt continues in IranAlthough all this suggests that the Middle East is rapidly moving towards a conflictual process, the real storm is brewing in Iran, where anti-regime protests have spread throughout the country.The anti-regime protests, which started more than two months ago after the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, who was detained by the morality police for not wearing her headscarf ‘properly’, continue. Political scientist Arif Keskin argues that ‘the loss of hope for reform in the country has given all protests an anti-regime character.’In the country where student boycotts in high schools and universities and shopkeepers' strikes in the cities, security forces have been trying to suppress the revolt with increasingly harsh methods in recent days.Activists confirm that the number of people killed in the demonstrations has exceeded 400, including at least 47 children. In the country, where the funerals of the killed citizens also turned into anti-regime demonstrations, it is seen that the religious leader Ali Khamenei, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the US, or other symbols of the regime were destroyed and police stations were burnt. The turbans of the mullahs continue to be the target of the demonstrators. It is stated that more than 15 thousand arrests have been made so far, and six demonstrators have been sentenced to death.There were clashes in some regions, and security forces were killed. The funerals of the killed security forces are also turned into pro-state demonstrations by the mullah regime. The regime continues to see the protests as ‘provocation of the West and acts of terrorism.’While there are resignations in Iranian state media, national team athletes support the protests by not singing the national anthem in competitions, and artists make anti-regime statements. The Iranian anti-regime diaspora scattered around the world continues to spread the protests around the world.The uprising, which has made history with the slogans of ‘women, life, freedom’ and ‘death to the dictator,’ is for now melting ethnic and ideological differences and uniting the society in secularism against the mullah regime. On the other hand, in regions where Azeri Turks and Kurds are the majority, the uprisings have the potential to take on a separatist character.Iran-Azerbaijan tensionIran had adopted a position supporting Armenia in Azerbaijan's war to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenian occupation. In addition to the impact of the planned opening of the Zangezur corridor on Iran's trade, Tehran was reportedly concerned about Turkey's growing influence in the region, the rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Israel, and the development of relations between Azeri Turks in Iran and Azerbaijan.&nbsp;Earlier this month, an ‘illegal armed group’ established by Iranian intelligence in Azerbaijan was deciphered, and Azerbaijan decided to open an embassy in Israel. Today, in the city of Tabriz, where Azerbaijani Turks live in large numbers, the slogans ‘Azerbaijani nation, it cannot bear this weakness’ and ‘freedom, justice, the national government’ are becoming increasingly audible.While the northwest of Iran is called ‘South Azerbaijan’, the number of Azeri Turks living in the country is estimated to be 25 million. The total population of Azerbaijan is just over 10 million.Iran's attack on Northern IraqIn Iran's Kurdistan province, violent protests and separatist slogans have been heard since Amini was killed. The fact that Amini was a young woman of Kurdish origin increases the anger in the region even more. Especially in the city of Mahabad, it is stated that the intervention of the regime forces in the demonstrations has reached the level of ‘massacre’.In addition, Iran has announced that it targets the headquarters of the armed Iranian Kurdistan Democratic Party (IKDP) and the Komele Labourers' Party in the northern Iraqi cities of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah with missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles ‘to ensure border security’, which it claims are fuelling protests in the country. On 28 September, 14 November, and 20 November, some people lost their lives in the attacks. While Iran is demanding the Iraqi government disarm these groups, it is stated that the clashes may escalate if the Peshmerga forces respond.Although it is stated that PJAK, the Kurdish separatist PKK-linked terrorist organisation in Iran, supports the anti-regime demonstrations, it is commented that ‘the recently increasing Iran-PKK rapprochement has enabled the terrorist organisation PKK to gain a blackmail trump card over Iran through PJAK.’ Iran, in turn, sends its message to the separatist Kurdish movement by attacking the IKDP, which ‘competes with PJAK in its claim to represent, lead and protect the Kurdish community.’With its disproportionate use of force against the democratic reaction of the people, the mullah regime in Iran jeopardises not only its territorial integrity but also the stability of the entire Middle East.

Days of conflict in the Middle East

Justice Minister Bekir Bozdağ announced last week that ‘We will probably submit the constitutional amendment proposal to the Presidency of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey next week’ and stated that the proposal will be submitted to parliament this week. Another title of the constitutional amendment, which also includes the ‘legalisation of the headscarf’, is ‘protection of the family'.At the beginning of this month, President Erdoğan said, ‘Strong families give birth to strong nations. Let us create strong families so that we can be a strong nation. A weak family weakens a strong nation. We do not want to give this opportunity.’&nbsp;One step behind: President Erdoğan responded to CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu's call for ‘legalising the headscarf’ with a call for a ‘constitutional amendment’. Erdoğan said, ‘Let's not stop there, let's make additional amendments that will strengthen our family institution, which consists of the union of men and women, and enable us to look to our future with confidence.’Why? There have been anti-LGBTQIA+ discourses in Turkey for a long time. In recent months, a rally called ‘Big Family Meeting’ was organised, banners with anti-LGBTQIA+ statements were carried and slogans were chanted. Minister of Interior Süleyman Soylu has made opposing discourses many times, and in a statement he made in August, he said, ‘This is why they want to unleash LGBTI or what is it, sexlessness on this country. First they will acclimatise, and then they will take our children away from us. We see all of these.’ In October, Minister of Industry and Technology Mustafa Varank said, ‘You can do whatever you want, but if you impose sexlessness, if you continue to undermine the concept of family, we will not say goodbye to anyone.’What will happen?&nbsp;Minister of Justice Bozdağ stated that paragraphs will be added to Article 24 of the Constitution, and the first paragraph of Article 41 will be amended. While Article 24 is expected to be amended regarding the headscarf, Article 41 is expected to be amended to read ‘The family is the foundation of Turkish society and is based on equality between spouses.’ It is believed that the word ‘spouses’ will be replaced with ‘men and women.’&nbsp;It is stated that with this word change, it is planned to constitutionally prevent marriage equality. Currently, no same-sex unions are recognised in Turkey, nor are marriages or similar unions outside the country. Marriage is restricted between a man and a woman by the article in the Civil Code which reads: ‘The man and woman who are to marry each other apply together to the marriage registrar's office in the place where one of them resides…’.&nbsp;How is it in other countries?&nbsp;In the image below, you can see the latest status of legal regulations on marriage equality and homosexuality.Today, marriage equality is recognised in the USA and most European countries. Although there are discourses against LGBTQIA+s in almost every country, countries acknowledge their existence in legal status and approve of their marriage rights. Of course, this process has not been going on for a long time but has been developing rapidly, especially in the last 10 years. If we look at a few countries:&nbsp;Netherlands:&nbsp;The Netherlands was the first country to legalise marriage equality. With the decision taken on 1 April 2001, homosexual couples were granted the same rights as heterosexual couples, including adoption.&nbsp;Belgium:&nbsp;In Belgium, where marriage equality was legalised in 2003, same-sex couples were granted the right to adopt children in 2006.&nbsp;Spain: In Spain, where marriage equality was legalised in 2005, couples can adopt whether they are married or not.&nbsp;Canada: Marriage equality in the country entered national law in July 2005 and was legalised nationwide. Before this period, it was legal in some provinces.South Africa:&nbsp;The first African country to allow marriage equality, South Africa legalised adoption in November 2006.Norway: the country's 2009 law paved the way for same-sex couples to marry and adopt, but for the past 20 years same-sex couples have enjoyed many of the same legal rights as unmarried heterosexual couples, under the term 'civil partnership'.Sweden: Since 1995, civil partnerships have been recognised, and in 2003 couples were granted the right to adopt a child. In May 2009, it was legalised for couples to marry in a civil or religious ceremony.&nbsp;France:&nbsp;In April 2013, a bill allowing marriage equality and adoption was approved by the parliamentary plenary and signed into law by the president.Argentina:&nbsp;On 14 July 2010, Argentina became the first South American country to have marriage equality and adoption rights after the law was passed by parliament.USA:&nbsp;In 1996, a federal law called the Defence of Marriage Act (DOMA) defined marriage as ‘the union of one man and one woman’. The law was canceled by the Constitutional Court in 2013. However, marriage equality had previously been legalised in several states, including Massachusetts, California, Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire, and New York. In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that marriage equality is a legal right and legalised it across the country. Justice Anthony Kennedy, who wrote the judgment, said, ‘No union is deeper than marriage.’United Kingdom:&nbsp;Marriage equality is now legal in all parts of the United Kingdom, although it was recognized at different times in different regions.&nbsp;Switzerland:&nbsp;Same-sex marriage became legal as of 1 July 2022 after it was approved in a referendum held in September 2021.Taiwan:&nbsp;Taiwan's Parliament passed the legalisation of marriage equality in 2019. Taiwan became the first Asian country to take this decision, and approved the right to adoption, albeit in a limited way, with the same law.Mexico: In Mexico, same-sex marriages became legal throughout the country, with the northeastern border state of Tamaulipas also approving marriage equality.&nbsp;On the other hand, especially in Middle Eastern countries, it is seen that LGBTQIA+ persons are not recognised for their fundamental human rights and are subjected to criminal sanctions due to their sexual orientation.&nbsp;Is family unity achieved by men and women?&nbsp;Stating that a strong family constitutes a strong society, President Erdoğan had stated that with the regulation to be made, ‘They will set a barrier against threats to the family institution and human nature.’&nbsp;Just the other day, AKP Deputy Chairman Hayati Yazıcı said about the regulation on the institution of the family, ‘Family unity consists of the marriage of a man and a woman, it is as clear as that. Can there be a citizen against this?’However, when compared to the rest of the world, it is possible to see that marriage is guaranteed as a constitutional right in many countries, and that the union between two people and sexual orientation is also recognised as a fundamental right and freedom. It would not be wrong to say that all countries attach importance to family and family unity and regard it as the basic building block of society. In this context, when we evaluate the changes and decisions taken by countries over the years, we can say that family unity and strength can be achieved through free and equal rights rather than marriage between men and women. &nbsp;<blockquote fr-original-style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(37, 44, 60); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px;" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(37, 44, 60); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px; margin: 0px 0px 1em; border-left-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box;">‘Homosexuals must also be legally secured within the framework of their rights and freedoms. We do not find the treatment they are subjected to from time to time on some television screens humane.’ -Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, 2002</blockquote>

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