Greetings from the latest issue of The Freedom Observer,Here's what we've monitored for you this week:<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">From the Editor-in-chief: Turkey's reports on the rule of law,</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Constitution: Erdogan's presidential candidacy,</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Law: The conviction of the head of Turkey's Medical Association, Prof. Korur-Financı,</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Economy:&nbsp;Turkish Central Bank and inflation,</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Civil Society: Censorship and the new NGO law.</li></ul>We wish you a pleasant reading,Freedom Research Association

We monitor the ongoings of Turkiye in the fields of the rule of law, economics, civil society, and politics.

The Freedom Observer

Turkey's state of law report card.

Erdoğan’s Run for the Presidency for the Third Time, Fincancı Sentenced to Prison, ‘New NGO Law’ 

The Freedom Observer is a bulletin in which the Ankara-based think tank Freedom Research Association monitors the ongoings of Turkiye in the fields of the rule of law, economics, civil society, and politics.By subscribing to the bulletin, you will be able to catch the highlights on the fields of study while being able to witness the evaluations made by the experts in the fields of law, politics, and economics from a pro-liberty perspective.In the Freedom Observer, you will be welcomed by the section From the Editor-In-Chief and be able to monitor the general highlights of the ongoings in Turkiye from a pro-liberty perspective.Then, the keynotes on the issues regarding the rule of law, such as judiciary decisions, violations of basic rights, and legislative advances, will be shared with the readers.Further, the economic highlights of the last two weeks will be evaluated from a pro-liberty perspective.The political hot topics will be evaluated to provide the viewers with a pro-liberty perspective from the writings of competent analysts.And finally, the hot topics regarding civil society in Turkiye will be shared with the viewers.Welcome, again, to the Freedom Observer. We do believe that it will be a fun ride to share the highlights of the hot topics in Turkiye with dearest Aposto readers!

From Editor-in-Chief, Determination of the Provincial Election Board Members, İmamoğlu's Political Ban, Erdoğan's Election Economy

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The constitutional provision that came into force with the constitutional amendment made in 2017 clearly states that a person can be "elected as President twice at most" (art. 101/2). In this case, there appears to be a constitutional obstacle before Erdogan's candidacy for the third time. However, there is an opportunity in the constitution that makes it possible for Erdoğan to be a candidate for the third time at the end of his second term in office. Considering this possibility in the 2017 referendum, the government added a provision that paved the way for Erdogan's third presidential term. This opportunity, however, is limited by a provision in the constitution: “If the Parliament decides to renew the elections in the second term of the President, the President can be a candidate once again” (art. 116/3). Considering the current composition of the Parliament, this seems rather unlikely: in order to postpone the election to an early date, one has to secure the 3/5 majority of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, which is the affirmative vote of at least 360 deputies. However, this does not seem possible for the government without the support of the opposition parties.In this situation where a qualified majority is not achieved in the parliament, pulling the election forward on May 14th can only be realized with the direct decision of the President to dissolve the parliament. In this scenario, if the president, not the parliament, decides to renew the elections, it would be unconstitutional for Erdoğan to be a candidate for the third time.Another discussion about bringing the election date forward is about whether the changes made in the election law on April 6, 2022, will be applied in the elections planned to be held on May 14, 2023. Some jurists state that the election law is a law that regulates not only the election day but also the election process, so an election to which the current election law will be applied can only be announced in the Official Gazette after 6 April 2023. In this scenario, considering the 60-day election calendar, it is not possible for the elections to take place on May 14th. If the government insists on holding the elections on May 14th , the President must take the decision to renew the election on March 9th at the latest and publish it in the Official Gazette. In this case, the amendments made in the election law on April 6, 2022 will be illegal to apply in the elections to be held on May 14th.Although these reservations are expressed by opposition parties and many jurists, the ruling bloc does not take these criticisms seriously. As a matter of fact, AKP group vice chairman Turan replied, "Let the YSK discuss Erdogan's candidacy. You, above all, announce your candidate". It should be noted that it is the norm in democratic countries that such legal debates revolve around high judicial bodies. However, in the recent past, the decisions of many judicial institutions, especially the YSK, that serve the interests of the political power confine this issue to the axis of politics and damage the credibility of the decisions to be taken from now on.

Erdoğan’s Run for the Presidency for the Third Time

Following these words, a defamation campaign was launched against Fincancı in the media close to the government, and an investigation was launched against her by the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office. Fincancı, who participated in the said program while she was in Germany, returned to Turkey and, through her lawyers, stated that she was ready to give a statement to the prosecutor's office. Despite this, Fincancı was detained in Istanbul, taken to Ankara, and arrested on 26 October. In addition, an investigation has also been initiated on the Turkish Medical Association.The objections of Fincancı's lawyers against the detention on the grounds that the conditions of detention were not met, there was no strong suspicion of a crime against her, and there were no grounds for her detention were rejected. In the indictment prepared by the Prosecutor's Office, it was demanded that Fincancı be sentenced to up to 7.5 years in prison for "propagandizing for a terrorist organization". Ankara 4th High Penal Court gave a decision of lack of jurisdiction on the grounds that Fincancı's residence address is Istanbul. The first hearing of the trial held within the framework of the indictment accepted by the Istanbul 24th High Penal Court was held on 23 December. Due to Fincancı's wish to actually attend the hearing, her transportation from Ankara to Istanbul was carried out by land route. Fincancı's request to be transferred by plane due to her health problems was rejected by the Ministry of Justice.The Ministry of National Defense requested to participate in the proceedings as an intervening party, and the request for intervention was rejected by the court. The court's decision to limit the defense to a maximum of three lawyers was appealed, and this objection was rejected by the court. Following the defense against the indictment, the prosecutor's office requested punishment from the upper line. An additional time was requested by the defense against the prosecutor’s opinion, and the request for release was rejected by the court, and one week was given for the defense.In the second hearing held on December 29th, the court's dismissal was requested as all the requests were rejected without justification. In the defense on the merits, it was stated that the elements of the crime of propagating the force and violent methods of the terrorist organization did not occur and that Fincancı's statements as a forensic expert that the allegations regarding the use of chemical weapons should be investigated by independent bodies are in accordance with international law standards, thus could not be described as propaganda. It was also stated that Fincancı’s statements are protected within the scope of freedom of expression. The court dismissed the delegation's request for refusal and the request for release, and the hearing was adjourned to 11 January.At the third hearing on January 11, the court sentenced Fincancı to a conviction for making propaganda for a terrorist organization and was sentenced to 2 years, 8 months ,and 15 days in prison. Following the conviction, it was decided to release Fincancı. The decision is subject to the divisional court of appeal and supreme court of appeal’s review.In the second hearing held on 29 December, the court's dismissal was requested as all the requests were rejected without justification. In the defense on the merits, it was stated that the elements of the crime of propagating the force and violent methods of the terrorist organization did not occur and that Fincancı's statement as a forensic medicine expert that the allegations regarding the use of chemical weapons should be investigated by independent bodies in accordance with international law standards could not be described as propaganda, and it was protected within the scope of freedom of expression. The court dismissed the delegation's request for refusal and the request for release, and the hearing was adjourned to 11 January.At the third hearing on January 11, the court sentenced Fincancı to a conviction for making propaganda for a terrorist organization and was sentenced to 2 years, 8 months, and 15 days in prison. Following the conviction, it was decided to release Fincancı. The decision is subject to appeal and appeal review.Fincancı’s case, who is a forensic expert and the President of the Turkish Medical Association, is a clear indicator of Turkey's poor record of freedom of expression. This became crystal-clear when she was arrested and sentenced for her statements regarding the allegations of the use of chemical weapons should be investigated by independent bodies. It is also clear that the whole judicial process strengthens the concerns about the independence of the judiciary.

TTB President Prof. Korur Fincancı Sentenced to Prison

It is known by all economic circles that Turkey has developed a monetary policy to increase exports under the name of the "Liraization Strategy" for a long time. In his presentation, Kavcıoğlu strongly emphasized the example of energy prices to explain how successful this strategy was. We observe that the Central Bank has left the price stability issue, which has been its main task for a long time and has developed policies that will form the basis of the government's populist policies. However, claiming that the economy will have a current account surplus by saying that energy costs will decrease shows that the institution is moving away from rationality at an unprecedented pace.There are several problematic aspects to this discourse. First of all, the "Liraization" move has already been hampered by the artificial suppression of the US dollar. Due to the dollar, which has not appreciated at the rate of inflation in Turkey and has been kept constant for the last few months, Turkey has now lost its currency advantage in exports. Turkey's leading exporting sectors are knocking on Erdogan and his team almost every day to lower the value of the Turkish lira. Due to this situation, Turkey is faced with a growing current account deficit. Imports are increasing more than exports, and the current account deficit is growing day by day.This undermines the “Liraization” strategy. The reversal of this reality was the basis of the Liraization strategy. In other words, the Turkish lira would become so depreciated, and Turkish goods would become so cheap that Turkish manufacturers would be able to sell more goods and services abroad. But even when the Turkish lira was extremely depreciated, the current account deficit continued to increase. Now, due to the increase in inflation, the prices of Turkish goods have increased. In this situation, it is quite irrational to hope that the price advantage arising only from energy imports will be beneficial when the dollar-TL exchange rate is in its current situation.In addition, Kavcıoğlu gave another interesting information about energy: Domestic natural gas will come into operation in March, and thus the country’s energy imports will decrease even more. It goes to say without a doubt that this is a highly optimistic estimate. It is not yet clear how domestic natural gas will be distributed. Although it is said that the Filyos Port built on the Black Sea coast will be used for this end, it is not yet known whether its infrastructure is suitable for gas distribution.The problematic aspects in the presentation are, indeed, not limited to the energy issue. The fact that food inflation forecasts were not revised upwards as a result of the drought deserves further discussion. However, Kavcıoğlu made a very different prediction and mentioned that the rains would start after February.[1] &nbsp;I think we all have the right to find out which meteorologist got their opinion while making this forecast. On the other hand, there was a lot of talk about the fall in commodity prices. However, there was no mention of China leaving its "zero case" policy and setting its growth target of 5.5 percent for 2023. Even this situation will cause an increase in commodity prices.Emphasizing that the framework of monetary policy is a cheap access to finance is a clear indication that the Central Bank is quite confused about its own main policy target. In addition, no mention was made of what measures the Central Bank would take against election economy activities such as tax amnesties, high-rate hikes, credit taps, and early retirement plans. It was even said that the election economy would not have much effect on inflation. In summary, the Central Bank has completely put price stability, which is its main task, into a corner and has undertaken the task of supporting the populist policies of the government. The CBRT stands before us as the biggest example of the institutional collapse and democratic decline in the country.<a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn1' name="_ftnref1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title=""> </a><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;"> <a href='#_ftn1' name="_ftnref1" title="" target="_blank" fr-original-style="" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"></a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftnref1' name="_ftn1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">[1]&nbsp;</a><a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/-vEao09aZkj-?c=Pv_TWABvQRjrjzb99tUyi&s=web' style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ck1zP1gU96k</a>

Central Bank’s Inflation Presentation and Ignoring the Reality

Although we have not yet begun to experience its consequences widely, the Amendment of the Press Law No. 7418 of 13.10.2022 and Some Laws, which is known as the "censorship law," stipulates that those who spread "false information" will be punished from 1 to 3 years, seems to put civil society in a more difficult situation after the 2023 elections.<a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn1' name="_ftnref1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">[1] This Law, which we will talk about frequently this year, will be at the top of the civil society issues we will follow in the bulletins.</a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn1' name="_ftnref1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">Although the government argues that Law No. 7418 was not prepared with political concerns and did not contain any censorship regulations</a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn2' name="_ftnref2" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">[2], accompanied by Law No. 7262 on the Prevention of Financing the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (the new "NGO Law"), it becomes easy to understand how much the civil society in Turkey is currently under intense pressure.</a><a href='#_ftn2' name="_ftnref2" title="" target="_blank" fr-original-style="" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"></a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn2' name="_ftnref2" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">As a matter of fact, Law No. 7418 has exposed non-governmental organizations to the risk of being imprisoned for up to three years for allegedly disseminating "false information" due to the ideas expressed on their platforms and the data contained in the studies they publish. The Law No. 7262, on the other hand, with its vague definition of terrorism, uncertain sanctions, and controls, serves as a "Sword of Damocles" on non-governmental organizations. For this reason, non-governmental organizations have to continue their activities under the risk of being accused of supporting terrorism with the people and institutions they cooperate with, the reports they publish, or the grants they receive.</a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn2' name="_ftnref2" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">&nbsp;</a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn2' name="_ftnref2" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">These laws, which are clearly not "regulations that protect and develop rights and freedoms in related fields," can actually be described as initiatives that further erode the rule of law in Turkey. In the meantime, it should be noted that the Venice Commission also criticized the Law No. 7262 on the disproportionateness of the penal sanctions it envisaged as doubtful. Legislation processes that do not rely on impartial, concrete, and transparent data, do not take diversity and participation into account, as well as omnibus laws that cannot be discussed sufficiently have become ordinary legislative processes in the country. Suffice it to claim that his situation continues to cause irreparable wounds in liberal democracy, the rule of law, and social peace and reconciliation.</a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn3' name="_ftnref3" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">[3]</a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftn3' name="_ftnref3" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title=""> <hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;"></a><a href='#_ftn3' name="_ftnref3" title="" target="_blank" fr-original-style="" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"></a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftnref1' name="_ftn1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">[1]&nbsp;</a><a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/ICrAZkJ49l9E?c=Jw0WtgfuHKwpPioVObE8J&s=web' style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">https://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2022/10/20221018-1.htm</a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftnref2' name="_ftn2" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">[2]&nbsp;</a><a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/sSh3lE9b2e95?c=Jw0WtgfuHKwpPioVObE8J&s=web' style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">https://t24.com.tr/haber/akp-li-mahir-unal-dan-sansur-yasasi-elestirilerine-yanit-bes-kriterin-besi-de-varsa-suca-girer,1065907</a><a fr-original-style="" href='#_ftnref3' name="_ftn3" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title="">[3]&nbsp;</a><a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/0wp0eth5APbw?c=Jw0WtgfuHKwpPioVObE8J&s=web' style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">https://www.mlsaturkey.com/tr/sansur-yasasi-ve-stklerde-son-durum/</a>

‘Censorship Law’ No. 7418 and ‘New NGO Law’ No. 7262

The government has made changes in various electoral laws, in particular with the Law on Elections of Parliament through Law No. 7393 on Amendment of Certain Laws dated 31/3/2022*. With these changes made before the General Elections for the Parliament and the Presidential Elections to be held in 2023, important changes were made in some laws, especially Law No. 298 on Basic Provisions of Elections and Electoral Registers. One of the most important of these changes is the one regarding the formation of the Provincial Election Boards and the election of the District Election Board presidents. Accordingly, the principle of determining the members of the election board, previously determined on the basis of seniority, by drawing lots has been accepted. On the other hand, changes were made such as lowering the election threshold to 7%, taking the votes of the parties rather than the votes of the alliance as the basis in the distribution of deputies, accepting the application of election bans for the Ministers, and excluding the President from the scope of the bans.An action for annulment was filed by the deputies of the main opposition party on the grounds that some articles of the said law were unconstitutional.** In the request for annulment, it was stated that the new rules stipulating the fact that members of the Provincial Election Board and the chairmen of the District Election Board should be determined by drawing lots instead of seniority were not enacted for the sake of public interest. It is stated that new rules aim to ensure that new judges appointed after 2016 take part in the boards, thus prioritizing the ruling party’s interests. In addition, it has been argued that due to the fact that the election law is technical and complex, the judges who will take part in the boards should be composed of judges experienced in the field of election law, which is of vital importance for both the independence of the boards and the fair resolution of election disputes. Moreover, it was emphasized that why there was a need to change the rules, which had been implemented without any problems for 70 years and not encountered any problems. In the meantime, it has been argued that it is not clear whether the judges who will participate in the lot are all judges who meet the conditions specified in the law and who work in the province, or whether they include the bidders. For this reason, &nbsp;the opposition claims that the new rules are contrary to the Preamble and Articles 2, 5, 36, 67, 79 and 138 of the Constitution.The Constitutional Court examined the regulation in terms of Articles 2, 67, and 79 of the Constitution and decided that the said rules were not unconstitutional. According to the Constitutional Court, the legislature has judicial discretion in this area, as there is no provision in the Constitution on how election boards are to be formed. Therefore, the said rules are not in violation of the Constitution. Moreover, according to the Court, since the election boards do not have any organic ties with the legislative or executive organs, and the fact that they do not receive orders or instructions from them, the constitutional principle that elections to be held under judicial control cannot be violated. Stating that it is not a problem for the judges to be inexperienced, the Court emphasized that there is sufficient trained personnel in the election directorates.According to the Constitutional Court, the provisional Article 24 added to Law No. 298, which terminated the duties of all members of the board elected in January 2022 to serve for two years on the basis of seniority and stipulates that those new elections to be held within three months by lottery procedure (with the 12th article of Law No. 7393) was unanimously decided that it was not contrary to the Constitution. Stating that the rule in question is not an “election law” within the meaning of Article 67 of the Constitution, the Court further stated that “there is no constitutional obstacle to the formation of electoral boards in a structure that does not include an element of the judiciary” (§ 127). Stating that the rule in question aims to ensure uniformity in the formation of election boards, the Court has determined that there is no purpose other than the purpose of public interest and has concluded that there is no interference with the impartiality and independence of the boards.&nbsp;Thus, the Court has declared that the government's intervention in the election boards is not unconstitutional.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">* <a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/M5Crois_FWqG?c=aoE1Z72gbcaMDmd0QfgRx&s=web' style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">https://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2022/04/20220406-1.htm</a> ** AYM, E.2022/50, K.2022/107, 28/09/2022 <a fr-original-style="" href='https://link.apos.to/c/xcnoHvzUTVuP?c=aoE1Z72gbcaMDmd0QfgRx&s=web' style="color: rgb(64, 169, 255); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: 0px; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">https://normkararlarbilgibankasi.anayasa.gov.tr/ND/2022/107</a>

Determination of the Provincial Election Board Members by Lot is Not in Violation of the Constitution, says the Constitutional Court

The case against Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu for allegedly insulting Turkish High Election Board (YSK) members has been decided. In the decision of the Istanbul 7th Criminal Court of First Instance dated 14 December 2022, İBB Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was sentenced to 2 years, 7 months, and 15 days in prison for insulting the members of the YSK, and a political ban from public activities was imposed on him. Later, in the reasoned decision announced on December 28, the court stated that İmamoğlu’s remark "fool” against the members of the YSK is an act considered a crime under Article 125 of the Turkish Penal Code and that İmamoğlu also committed the crime of insult in front of the press in an aggressive manner and offended the members of the high judiciary. It should be noted that if this decision is approved by the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court, it will become final.This decision met with a great reaction from different segments of society, especially the opposition parties. On the day the decision was made, İmamoğlu, İYİ Party Chairman Meral Akşener, and the vice presidents of other opposition parties held a rally in front of Saraçhane to protest the decision. The next day, the leader of the 6 opposition parties organized a rally under the banner of "The nation stands by their will". They emphasized that the decision is highly political and that they stand with İmamoğlu.First of all, it should be noted that this decision was made through political motives. Since the March 2019 local elections, the government has been trying to narrow down İmamoğlu's field of activity, both as a mayor and as a political figure, through the courts and administrative methods. Behind the pressure exerted by the AKP government lies the rising political visibility of İmamoğlu after he won the İBB Presidency and the opposition's possible presidential candidate in the elections scheduled for June 2023. As it has tried many times before, the AKP government seems to have based its main winning strategy before the 2023 elections on suppressing the opposition on many axes and encouraging them to align in its own direction through various methods.It is not acceptable in liberal democracies that the government changes the rules in order not to lose the elections or put pressure on the courts to exclude their opponents from the game. Instead of confronting its opponents in public debates and elections, the government’s illegal and anti-democratic ways of suppressing the opposition not only seize the rights of the politician in question but also restrict our freedom of choice as citizens. One of the necessary conditions for holding the elections on the fairground and not questioning the legitimacy of the election results is possible if the parties and politicians are exempt from such pressures. However, the AKP government casts a shadow over the legitimacy of an election and harms Turkish democracy in the long run.

Imprisonment and Political Ban Decision Against İmamoğlu

The economic steps taken by governments in competitive authoritarian regimes have only one goal: to win elections. It is not surprising that this is the only goal in any system that does not depend on a certain set of rules, foresight, and long-term interests. Although the problems that we will scrutinize below overturn the free market rules, such populist practices will lead to only a short-term increase in the welfare of Turkish citizens in the current economic environment. However, the fact that all these moves, which temporarily increase the welfare of citizens, come before the elections show us that they are only aimed at creating an electoral economy.Populist moves will result in a permanent deterioration in the budget balance and an increase in foreign debt interest rates in order to meet the short-term welfare increase of citizens. In addition, the efforts to provide resources for all these populist economic moves are disrupting not only the labor market but also the job market, and the foreign investment figures that Turkey needs lag far behind expectations.The implementation of populist economic moves is almost the golden rule in competitive authoritarian regimes. However, how these moves will change voting behavior is not as such strict as one. In other words, although the changes in economic voting behavior require economic reasons, it should be considered that the result may be different from the one envisaged by the government. On the other hand, however different it may be for political power, the result does not change in terms of citizens’ long-term economic interests. The only result to be obtained from populist economic policies is backsliding on democracy and economic collapse.Erdogan's electoral economy practices are numerous and varied. For this reason, we will refer to this subject frequently in future bulletins. These illiberal economic moves may even form part of our newsletter. Since this is an introductory part, it will suffice to mention the most basic move below.

An Introduction to Erdoğan’s Election Economy

Along with the change in retirement conditions after the legal change on September 8, 1999, the retirement age requirement (EYT) had been on the political agenda for a long time. Political leaders from all parties were making statements on the issue, especially at election times. Most prominently, President Erdoğan claimed that "Even if I lose the election, I will not pass the early retirement law". Yet, for those who are familiar with Erdoğan’s erratic U-turns in many cases, due to the decline in vote rates, the President later brought this law to the parliament's agenda by presenting it as great good news.Before the law in 1999, people who would only work for 20-25 years (20 for women, 25 for men) and retire could only do so between the ages of 55-65 with a gradual retirement age application after this date. But for a long time, they have made the government lift the age restriction for them by establishing associations and doing social media activities. Yet, this opened the door to a new debate. As of September 9, 1999, people who started to work as registered with the Social Security Institution (SGK) will retire at the age of 55-60, while those who started work the day before, on September 8, will be able to retire at the age of 38-43 and receive a pension. This will appear again in the future as an imbalance that disrupts work peace.Indeed, the only imbalance that has been created has not been in earning pension entitlements. In countries such as Turkey, where the social security system is not managed properly, the employee-retired balance constitutes a serious contestation. In a standard, normal, ordinary pension system, the employee pays the system, a fund is formed there, and the value collected in the fund gradually increases with the management of that fund. The fund reimburses people who are due to retire. That is, the fund evaluates the employee's money. If there is a social aspect of the pension system here, some of the shares paid by the citizens working at that time are transferred to the people who are already retired. While this approach claims that the pension system in Turkey is also a social one, it is calculated that as a result of the situation created, there will be 1.4 to 1.6 employees per pensioner in Turkey. Normally, this number is expected to be at least 4 so that the pension system becomes sustainable. However, while Turkey's pension system is already unsustainable, it will not take long for it to collapse completely after the new regulation.

The Freedom Observer

The Freedom Observer

The Freedom Observer

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18 Oca 2023