Hello,In today's issue, &nbsp;former Israeli foreign minister, and Vice President of the Toledo International Center for Peace Shlomo Ben-Ami writes about what to expect from Turkish foreign policy in President Erdoğan's third term.Enjoy your reading.

Best articles covering international politics and developing stories.

Aposto Politics

What to expect from Turkish foreign policy in President Erdoğan's third term.

Turkey's Pragmatic Islamist

<div dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" itemprop="abstract" style="box-sizing: border-box;">If the Sino-American relationship was a card game, one could say that America and its longstanding allies have been dealt a good hand, especially in light of China’s growing economic, demographic, and political challenges. But even a good hand can lose if it is badly played.</div><div data-page-area="article-body" dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" itemprop="articleBody" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Enjoy your reading,</div><div data-page-area="article-body" dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" itemprop="articleBody" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Aposto editorial team</div>

Even a good hand can lose if it is badly played.

Popping China's Balloon

Hello,In this issue, Billy Melo Araujo examines how the Stormont brake could block new EU laws from Northern Ireland.Enjoy,Aposto editorial team

How the Stormont brake could block new EU laws from Northern Ireland

Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal

Hello,In this issue, you can find Ekin Tümer's article "Claiming anger" on the events following the two earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, Turkey.

How can we successfully become a “real” people?

Claiming anger

<div dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" itemprop="abstract" style="box-sizing: border-box;">From Tchaikovsky’s harmonies to Pushkin’s verses, Russian culture has been besmirched by people whose atrocities have negated their ancestors’ achievements. Russia has been dragged back to the barbaric customs of Muscovy, as if the nineteenth century had never happened.</div>Enjoy your reading,Aposto editorial team

Russia has been dragged back to the barbaric customs of Muscovy, as if the nineteenth century had never happened.

A Farewell to Russia

<blockquote fr-original-style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(255, 206, 20); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px;" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(255, 206, 20); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px; margin: 0px 0px 1em; border-left-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box;"><div dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" itemprop="description" style="box-sizing: border-box;">"As the atrocities and costs stemming from Russia’s war show, the international order certainly does not need revisionism. However, it does urgently need a “re-envisioning” of key institutions, processes, and frameworks, so that it can better uphold the liberal principles upon which it was founded."</div></blockquote><div dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" itemprop="description" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Article by Tobias Bunde and Sophie Eisentraut.Enjoy your reading,&nbsp;Aposto editorial team</div>

"The international order urgently needs a “re-envisioning” of key institutions, processes, and frameworks, so that it can better uphold the liberal principles upon which it was founded."

Re-Envisioning the Liberal International Order

Hello,In this issue, you can find the latest on France's pension reforms. For background on the issue, Mathias Bernard's article 'Pension reform in France: Macron and demonstrators resume epic tussle begun over 30 years ago.' So who will prevail, the people out in the streets or the government? &nbsp;Enjoy your reading,Aposto editorial team

Macron and demonstrators resume epic tussle begun over 30 years ago.

Pension Reform in France

Hi,In this issue, we focus on the devastating earthquakes of Feb. 6, 2023 in Turkey. We share two articles originally published by <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> and <a fr-original-style="" href="https://globalvoices.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Global Voices</a>, respectively.

Two days after a devastating earthquake struck, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited one of the worst affected areas and declared that it was “not possible to be prepared for such a disaster.”

Earthquakes in Turkey, Twitter Censorship

Politika hakkında yayımlanan makaleler ve yayınlar

Politika

Haber

By Joseph S. Nye, Jr.CAMBRIDGE – When US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, met in Bali last November, they agreed to hold high-level meetings to establish “<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.dw.com/en/us-and-china-strengthen-guardrails-as-xi-and-biden-meet-in-bali/a-63740823" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">guardrails</a>” for the Sino-American strategic competition. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/17/politics/blinken-china-visit/index.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">scheduled to visit</a> Beijing to inaugurate that effort last month. But when China sent a surveillance balloon (visible to the naked eye) over American territory, Blinken’s visit was&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.npr.org/2023/02/04/1154473950/u-s-cancels-blinkens-visit-to-china-after-the-appearance-of-a-spy-balloon" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">shot down</a> even faster than the balloon.Though this certainly was not the first time that China deployed a balloon in such a fashion, the poor timing was remarkable. Still, it might have been better if Blinken had followed through with his visit.Yes, China claimed, dubiously, that the device was a&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/03/how-a-suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-over-montana-has-thrown-a-wrench-in-us-china-relations/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">weather balloon</a> that had gone astray; but intelligence cover-ups are hardly unique to China. Last month’s incident had echoes of 1960, when US President Dwight Eisenhower and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev were scheduled to meet to establish&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/u-2-spy-plane-incident" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Cold War guardrails</a>. But then the Soviets shot down an American spy plane that Eisenhower initially tried to dismiss as an&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/05/us/politics/balloon-china-u2-soviet-union.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">errant weather flight</a>. The summit was&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/u-s-soviet-summit-meeting-collapses" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">canceled</a>, and real guardrails were not discussed until after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.Some analysts liken the current US-China relationship to the Cold War, since it, too, is becoming a prolonged strategic competition. But the analogy can be misleading. During the Cold War, there was almost no trade or talks between the US and the Soviet Union, nor was there ecological interdependence on issues like climate change or pandemics. The situation with China is almost the opposite. Any US strategy of containment will be limited by the fact that China is the major trading partner to&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-u-s-worlds-trading-partner/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">far more countries</a> than the US is.But the fact that the Cold War analogy is counterproductive as a strategy does not rule out the possibility of a new cold war. We could still go down that path by accident. The appropriate historical analogy for the current moment therefore is not 1945 but 1914, when all the great powers&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/how-the-world-went-to-war-in-1914" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">expected</a> a short Third Balkan War, only to end up with World War I, which lasted four years and destroyed four empires.Political leaders in the early 1910s did not pay enough attention to the growing strength of nationalism. Today, policymakers would do well not to repeat the mistake. They must remain alert to the implications of rising nationalism in China, populist nationalism in the United States, and the dangerous interplay between these two forces. Given the clumsiness of China’s diplomacy and the longer history of standoffs and incidents over Taiwan, the prospects for an inadvertent escalation should worry us all.China regards Taiwan as a renegade province. Ever since US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1971,&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30341.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">US policy</a> has been designed to deter both Taiwan’s declaration of de jure independence and China’s use of force to bring about reunification. But now, some analysts argue that the double-deterrence policy is&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/will-us-china-tensions-boil-over" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">outdated</a>, on the grounds that China’s growing military power may tempt it to strike now while it has the chance.Other analysts are skeptical. They warn that an outright&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/26/taiwan-us-security-guarantee-defense-china-ukraine-war/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">US security guarantee</a> for Taiwan would provoke China to act, rather than deter it, and they worry that high-level official visits to the island are&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.energyintel.com/00000183-c6f9-d252-abaf-dfffa27b0000" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">inconsistent</a> with the “one-China policy” that America has proclaimed since the 1970s.Even if China eschews a full-scale invasion and merely tries to coerce Taiwan with a blockade, or by taking an offshore island, a single ship or aircraft collision in which lives are lost could be enough to trigger a broader escalation. If the US were to react by freezing Chinese assets or invoking the Trading with the Enemy Act, for example, the two countries could slip quickly into a real cold war – or even a hot one.A recent&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">war game</a> staged by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, suggests that the US might win such a contest, but at an enormous cost to both sides (and to the world economy). The best solution to the Taiwan issue therefore is to prolong the status quo.Former Australian Prime Minister&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/kevin-rudd" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Kevin Rudd</a> has argued that the West’s objective should not be to achieve a total victory over China, but rather to manage the competition with it. The sound strategy is to avoid demonizing China and instead frame the relationship in terms of “<a fr-original-style="" href="https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/avoidable-war-case-managed-strategic-competition" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">competitive coexistence</a>.” If China changes for the better in the long term, that will simply be an unexpected bonus for a strategy that aims to manage great-power relations in an era of traditional as well as economic and ecological interdependencies.A good strategy must rest on careful net assessment. Whereas underestimation breeds complacency, overestimation creates fear – either of which can lead to miscalculation. China has become the&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.citeco.fr/10000-years-history-economics/contemporary-world/china-becomes-the-world-s-second-largest-economic-power-by-gdp-in-current-dollar-terms" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">second-largest national economy</a> in the world; but even if its&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN-US" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">GDP</a> seems on track to exceed America’s someday, its&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN-US" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">per capita income</a> is still less than one-quarter that of the US, and it faces a number of economic, demographic, and political headwinds.Not only did China’s&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-population-decline-will-mean-economic-geopolitical-decline-by-yi-fuxian-2023-02" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">working-age population</a> already peak in 2015, but its economic productivity growth has been slowing, and it has few committed political allies. If the US, Japan, and Europe coordinate their policies, they will still represent the largest part of the world economy, and they will retain the capacity to organize a rules-based international order that can help shape Chinese behavior. These longstanding alliances are the key to managing China’s rise.In the near term, given Xi’s increasingly assertive policies – including foolish acts such as the ill-timed balloon – we will probably have to spend more time on the rivalry side of the equation. But if we maintain our alliances and avoid ideological demonization and misleading Cold War analogies, we can succeed.If the Sino-American relationship was a card game, one could say that we have been dealt a good hand. But even a good hand can lose if it is badly played. Seen against the historical context of 1914, the recent balloon incident should remind us why we need guardrails.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Joseph S. Nye is a professor at Harvard University and the author of&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/do-morals-matter-9780190935962?cc=cz&lang=en&" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump</a>&nbsp;(Oxford University Press, 2019).<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023. <a fr-original-style="" href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a>

If the Sino-American relationship was a card game, one could say that America and its longstanding allies have been dealt a good hand, especially in light of China’s growing economic, demographic, and political challenges. But even a good hand can lose if it is badly played.

By Billy Melo Araujo<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">After years of tensions and negotiations, the EU and the UK have announced their proposed solution to the problem of trade barriers between Northern Ireland, Great Britain and the EU.The <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-windsor-framework" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Windsor framework</a> is a political agreement which sets out amendments to the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840230/Revised_Protocol_to_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol</a>. The protocol, a part of the EU-UK withdrawal agreement, was put in place to avoid border checks on goods traded between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It did this by keeping Northern Ireland subject to EU customs and internal market law on goods.But it has been highly contentious since its inception. Because Northern Ireland is subject to a separate regulatory and customs regime to the rest of the UK, goods entering from Great Britain are subject to checks. In addition to potential trade disruptions, the “Irish Sea border” is seen by some in the unionist community as an affront to their identity and place within the UK.The Windsor framework does not get rid of the protocol, but proposes to change it significantly. While barriers to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland are not removed entirely, the Windsor framework proposes reducing checks on goods not at risk of being sent on to the EU, as well as parcels, food products and pets. Crucially, medicines manufactured in Great Britain would no longer require EU authorisation to be lawfully placed in the Northern Ireland market.The Irish Sea Border is still there, just less visible and less onerous for those involved in trade. But there are strings attached for the UK, including strict data sharing and labelling requirements, and putting in place reinforced surveillance and enforcement mechanisms.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The Stormont brake</h2>Another key issue with the protocol has been that Northern Ireland remains subject to EU rules in which it has no say. Critics, in particular Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2023/02/15/protocol-deal-must-address-democratic-deficit-in-ni-dup-mp-insists/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">have argued</a> that the protocol created a democratic deficit in Northern Ireland.To address these concerns, the Windsor framework introduces a mechanism called the Stormont brake.Currently, the protocol requires Northern Ireland to comply with a number of EU laws. It also allows for changes: if an EU act listed in the protocol is amended, replaced or deleted, this automatically also applies to the protocol.The protocol’s content has therefore changed significantly since it came into force, and is likely to continue changing in the future. This is a problem as it requires Northern Ireland to comply with evolving EU rules without having any input.The Stormont brake seeks to rectify this democratic deficit by <a fr-original-style="" href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1003951/CP_476_The_Third_Report_on_the_Use_of_the_Petition_of_Concern_Mechanism_in_the_Northern_Ireland_Assembly__1_.pdf" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">establishing a procedure</a> allowing the Northern Ireland assembly to block the application of new EU rules in Northern Ireland.The UK can apply a “brake”, within two months from the publication of an EU act, provided it has received a petition to do so from at least 30 members of the assembly representing at least two parties. The brake system incorporates a number of requirements and restrictions intended to avoid frivolous petitions.Members must show that their petition for a rule to not apply is a measure of last resort, and a matter of exceptional circumstance. They must also show that they carried out substantive prior consultations between the UK and the Northern Ireland executive, and sought to engage with the EU and other relevant parties before requesting to pull the brake.If the UK government accepts that these conditions have been met, the UK can notify to the EU of its intention not to apply the rule in question. It is then up to UK to assess whether to proceed.The UK must provide the EU with a detailed account of how the rule differs significantly from whatever rule it is amending or replacing, and why this would significantly impact everyday life in Northern Ireland.The Stormont brake attempts to strike a balance between Stormont having a greater influence on how EU law applies in Northern Ireland, and the need to avoid a scenario where the system is abused for political purposes. Whether the right balance has been struck is perhaps open to discussion, not least because the strict conditions might make it very difficult to use the system in practice.Importantly, the Stormont brake relies on the restoration of power sharing in Northern Ireland. This would require the DUP to end its boycott on power sharing, which it began as a protest against the Northern Ireland protocol.For both the EU and the UK, the Windsor framework can be seen as a considerable achievement. If adopted, it should reduce barriers to trade while increasing the democratic legitimacy of rules applied in Northern Ireland.Detractors will likely point to the things that the framework does not do. One point of complaint is the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Under the protocol, the court has notable jurisdiction over the EU laws that apply in Northern Ireland. This has been considerably controversial, as the DUP wants the ECJ completely removed from Northern Ireland’s affairs.But contrary to what <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/06/negotiators-make-breakthrough-in-northern-irish-protocol-dispute" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">some reports</a> initially suggested, the framework does not affect the ECJ’s status under the protocol. Only the ECJ can rule on the validity and interpretation of EU law. Therefore, as long as EU law applies in Northern Ireland, the ECJ will remain a feature.The UK government argues that by giving the UK a right to veto EU legislation, the brake system reduces the role of the ECJ under the protocol. In reality, while the right of veto could (if used) limit the EU law obligations under the protocol, the court’s jurisdiction remains the same as it is currently.Some may also argue that the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.shearman.com/perspectives/2021/09/uk-proposed-revisions-to-article-10-of-northern-ireland-protocol" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">continued application of EU state aid law in the UK</a> is a problem. And some may not be satisfied as long as EU law continues to apply – in any capacity – in Northern Ireland.This should not detract from the significant efforts and concessions made to secure an agreement. Despite its potential weaknesses, the Windsor framework addresses many of the practical difficulties associated with the operation of the protocol, and could represent a compromise solution both sides can live with.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Author:&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/billy-melo-araujo-278705" rel="author" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Billy Melo Araujo</a>, Senior Lecturer in EU and International Economic Law, Queen's University BelfastThis article is republished from <a fr-original-style="" href="https://link.apos.to/c/-05KVy1t_3lN?c=BNDYq4PmbgErb1Tj_JmEg&sub=62b033905d379200061d8935&s=web" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/rishi-sunaks-brexit-deal-how-the-stormont-brake-could-block-new-eu-laws-from-northern-ireland-200773" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">original article</a>.

By <a fr-original-style="" href="https://link.apos.to/c/oYP1BiglItrj?c=5ecRMLmqzT551T-qBW0-w&sub=62b033905d379200061d8935&s=web" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Ekin Tümer</a>In her book explaining how populism transformed democracy, Me the People, political theorist Nadia Urbinati defines “people” as such: “In its modern configuration, the category of the people has three key meanings: (1) persona ficta, or the collective sovereign that acts as one, and in whose name laws are made and enforced; (2) the sociohistorical body that lives in a specific territory and is sometimes identified with the nation; and (3) the political collective or constituency that claims and achieves political agency through movements of opinions, parties, and representatives.”Populism can be defined as a set of political positions that emphasize a particular idea of "the people" and pits this group against "the elite" or, more simply, as "popular self-interest". Moreover, it is most pronounced in the third case when the people become a political subject which constitutes a field of competition for the rulers. Mario Tronti, a former member of the Senate of the Italian Republic from the Democratic Party, explains this by saying: "We have populism because there is no people."More than an idea, the people is always there, in all its tangibility. However, the populist leader doesn’t perceive the people as a polyphonic whole, but chooses the “part” of the public that reflects his ideology. The only people with whom the populist leader has a dialogue is the "right people" who support him under all circumstances, whom he makes dependent on him through unrealizable promises and intense, primitive emotions. Those who don’t conform to the “right people” are marginalized, and dispensable. Because they are the “wrong people”, who betrayed the leader in some way by stepping out of line. The leader tries to replace the people he finds wrong with the right people; he pits the two against each other with divisive words and actions when necessary. This is like dividing the people into teams for a kind of ethical/moral match. While the leader watches what is going on in his box seat, the people stop focusing on the root of the problems and compete to win, to be the "right people".The people, who should be treated as an inseparable whole, is divided into obedient "real" parts and questioning "unreal" parts. This is precisely what the populist leader wants, to find the ground on which he can fictionalize his own narrative of reality. In The Origins of Totalitarianism, Hannah Arendt explains this in a striking way: “Before mass leaders seize the power to fit reality to their lies, their propaganda is marked by its extreme contempt for facts as such, for in their opinion fact depends entirely on the power of man who can fabricate it.” When the people is polarized, there is no longer a people, there are those who tell the truth and those who fabricate lies.A populist leader doesn’t like people “that acts as one” as established in the first definition of Urbinati. If there are no separated, decomposed parts, reality becomes unbendable. The leader's voice is drowned out by a powerful crowd that speaks a single truth, and cannot be silenced. In this case, the leader loses the power to soothe the people with excuses such as "it was such a disaster that no one could have overcome it" or simply, "it was fate". The people include everyone and they are empowered, so they have the right to demand accountability when those they empower fail to take responsibility. The people need to remember their right to do that.The state is not, and cannot be, by any definition, a shouty father figure at the top. Because this is against its nature. The purpose of the state's existence arises from the people’s demand to live freely, with equal rights in secure territories and to remain safe from harm. The state is not a person who can be hurt by the people’s dissatisfaction, nor is it a person to fear. The state is accountable to the people and doesn’t possess the luxury of not apologizing.The power of a people united in their demand for accountability exceeds the power of the populist leader, it frightens him. Today, there is a healthy anger that lies within the people's demand for accountability. Because what we are seeing now, we are seeing it completely bare: those who are failing to understand the extent of our anger, those who are failing to understand that this anger will not blow over in a year or two as it is demanded of us, those who are offended by our mourning, the hastily cleaned areas so the governing powers don’t have to see the damage, the men who lined children up for a press statement, the men who yanked down the hood of a freezing child’s coat so his face would show on the TV screen, the men pushing and shoving each other in a race to get in the frame, those who silenced the ones who were saying “No help came here”, those who cast a shadow over support efforts, those who displaced students at the first opportunity, those who tried to demolish the single-storey construction inspection building while the rubble has not yet been removed, those who detained earthquake victims, those who are occupied with cleaning criminal records…Unity of the real people who are forced to appease the frail and shameless hearts that are triggered by every reality, every insurgence, every life, who are threatened and pitted against each other if they don’t comply, who have very little left to lose, surpasses this system. This is exactly why we need to remember, there is no “right people” or “wrong people”, we are all the real and the only people, and we can stand as a grand, polyphonic voice.

By Anastasia EdelBERKELEY – It has now been a year since Russia, my birthplace, invaded Ukraine. For 365 days, we have been waking up to news of Russian missile strikes, bombings, murders, torture, and rape. It has been 365 days of shame and confusion, of wanting to turn away but needing to know what is happening, of watching Russians become “<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/22/magazine/ruscism-ukraine-russia-war.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">ruscists</a>,” “<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/over-200-invaders-killed-or-wounded-by-ukraines-strike-on-occupied-melitopol/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Orks</a>,” or “<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/editorial-cartoons/jack-ohman/article266451061.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">putinoids</a>.” For 365 days, the designation “Russian-American,” previously straightforward, has felt like a contradiction in terms.For those in my situation, some methods of adapting to the new circumstances have come easier than others. Russian books still crowd my bookcase, but I no longer have any wish to re-read them. Chekhov and Nabokov cannot be blamed for the aggression against Ukraine, but it nonetheless has stolen their magic and their capacity to teach. These authors were my friends, as were the old-country rituals like Russian Easter vigils and New Year’s screenings of the Soviet classic&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073179/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Irony of Fate</a>. I feel the loss acutely, but perhaps it is for the better. It helps me concentrate on the present.Other changes have required more soul-searching. Every Russian in the West used to feel like an envoy of a great culture and a great country. Though things had gone badly wrong with&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt130jsp1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Bolshevism and the Gulag</a>, Russia had managed to straighten itself out and rejoin civilization by the end of the twentieth century, offering its own “special” virtues for everyone else to behold. In the West, the romantic appeal of Russia’s stated priorities – communal over individualistic, socialist over capitalist, spiritual over material, heart over head – was so strong that I, too, became convinced of Russia’s hidden goodness, even though I had left the country as soon as I could in the 1990s.Now, I am reminded why. Russia&nbsp;is&nbsp;special, but mainly in the sense that it is uniquely capable of destroying, in a matter of days, what took centuries to build. From Tchaikovsky’s harmonies to Pushkin’s verses, Russian culture has been besmirched by people whose atrocities have negated their ancestors’ achievements. Russia has been dragged back to the barbaric customs of Muscovy, as if the nineteenth century had never happened.As someone who was shaped by Russian and Soviet literature, I have been made to feel like an unwilling partner to Russian crimes. That is why, since last February, I have abandoned any pretense of being a cultural envoy. I have been an envoy of nothing – just another immigrant who came to America in search of a better life. In some ways, it has been liberating. I now know that one’s search for meaning need not – and sometimes&nbsp;must not – be confined to any cultural tradition.Still, it isn’t easy questioning your own past. Flipping through family albums, we used to see our grandfathers as heroes who had survived the great terror, won the great war, and built a great country. Their lives were the stuff of legends – a perfect twentieth-century tale of sacrifice and fortitude. They suffered so that their grandchildren could live in peace (and “they,” of course, included Ukrainians).But those sacrifices have been squandered. We now must consider the possibility that our grandparents’ achievements merely extended the life of a totalitarian monster, imparting to it the legitimacy that it craved. How should we think about the 23-27 million Soviet citizens who&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-05-10/a-message-to-putin-from-42-million-dead" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">died</a> in the twentieth century’s war against fascism? Many of them were the grandparents of the twenty-first century’s own fascists.This answer wasn’t so straightforward just a few years ago. After the end of the Cold War, Russia seemed like the freest country in the world. It was also believed to be a country capable of repentance. The fact that nobody was called to answer for the communist regime’s crimes was viewed as proof of our collective desire for national healing, rather than as a deliberate effort by the new authorities to clear themselves of any blame.Today, Putin’s war on Ukraine is being directed, supplied, and supported by Russians who, like me, lived through&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://time.com/5512665/mikhail-gorbachev-glasnost-perestroika/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">perestroika and&nbsp;glasnost</a>. They have wasted that era’s promise and built another prison “<a fr-original-style="" href="https://russianlegacy.com/poetry-pushkin-to-chaadayev" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">on the ruins of despotism</a>.” What felt like a conscious national choice in the 1990s turned out to be an aspiration of the few. The very idea of “national choice” seems like a hollow concept now. Russians exist only as subjects, their society an atomized mass where some just try to survive, and others cheer on the regime’s crimes so that they can forget about their own misery for a while. Those brave few who stand up to defy the system end up being swallowed by it.To be Russian today is to be culturally hollowed out. For those of us with half our lives behind us, it is not as though we can simply adopt a new set of favorite books, movies, or holiday traditions. You can read Gogol and explore Ukrainian folk songs, but you cannot adopt a Ukrainian identity, because it would feel immoral even to try. All you can do is dissolve into the background and hope nobody asks where you got your accent. When you cheer for Ukraine, you do it quietly from the sidelines.What are we to do with our memories, family sagas, and earlier exalted perceptions of our place in the “<a fr-original-style="" href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/marx/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">historical process</a>” (as the Marxists used to put it)? Since the past cannot be canceled, it must be either repressed or deglamorized for the sake of the present and the future. Everything now hinges on the outcome of the war. If Ukraine wins and Putin’s regime falls, it may still be possible for Russia to rehabilitate itself someday – as Germany once did.That will be a task for every decent person – Russians and everyone else – to advance when the time comes. But even with a hoped-for Ukrainian victory, there will be no return to the past, when Russia existed as a unique civilization. That Russia, real or imagined, expired on February 24, 2022. Let us drink to the departed.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Anastasia Edel is the author of&nbsp;Putin’s Playground: Empire, Revolution, and the New Tsar (Callisto Media, 2016).<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023. <a fr-original-style="" href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a>

From Tchaikovsky’s harmonies to Pushkin’s verses, Russian culture has been besmirched by people whose atrocities have negated their ancestors’ achievements. Russia has been dragged back to the barbaric customs of Muscovy, as if the nineteenth century had never happened.

By Tobias Bunde &amp;&nbsp; Sophie Eisentraut&nbsp;MUNICH – While the world’s powers may not agree on much these days, most recognize that the world is at a critical juncture. US President Joe Biden’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">National Security Strategy</a> calls this the “decisive decade” in the contest for the future of the international order. Similarly, Russian President Vladimir Putin <a fr-original-style="" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69695" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">argues</a> that the world is entering “the most dangerous, unpredictable, and at the same time most important decade since the end of World War II.” For German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Russian invasion marks a <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/policy-statement-by-olaf-scholz-chancellor-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-and-member-of-the-german-bundestag-27-february-2022-in-berlin-2008378" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Zeitenwende</a> (watershed), which means “that the world afterwards will no longer be the same as the world before.”But despite the widely shared perception that the international order is at a turning point, no one yet knows what it is turning toward, or which fault lines and strategic visions will most decisively shape it in the future.Among liberal democracies, Russia’s brutal war against its democratic neighbor (and China’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/china-russia-alliance-double-danger-or-limited-partnership" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">tacit support</a> for Russia’s aggression) has reinforced the impression that autocratic revisionists represent the most serious threat to the rules-based international order. Democracies in the Indo-Pacific region fear that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” as Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has <a fr-original-style="" href="https://japan.kantei.go.jp/101_kishida/statement/202206/_00002.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">put it</a>. Autocrats are not only trying to establish new spheres of influence; they are also posing new challenges to international rules and norms concerning human rights, global infrastructure and development, energy security, and nuclear stability.But the dynamics within and between each of these domains are far more complex than a simple democratic-autocratic dichotomy would suggest. Many developing countries harbor deep grievances against what they see as an economic order that has failed to serve their interests. Open trade (and the infrastructure that facilitates it) has come under pressure from many directions as major powers weaponize trade links and resort to protectionism. Even on human rights – an issue intimately tied to the liberal rules-based international order – democracies do not always see eye to eye, and have often failed to vote together on United Nations resolutions.These complexities are further reflected in new data from the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2023/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Munich Security Index 2023</a>, developed by the Munich Security Conference and Kekst CNC, which is based on public-opinion surveys from across the G7, Brazil, India, China, South Africa (the BRICS except Russia), and Ukraine. When asked about the main fault line in global politics today, the greatest share of respondents (23-46%) do indeed point to the divide between democracies and dictatorships. But other geopolitical cleavages also feature prominently, including those between rich and poor countries and between states that support a rules-based international order and those that do not.Autocrats are not alone in feeling deep dissatisfaction with existing international norms and institutions. Many people in Asia, Africa, and Latin America associate the Western-led order with post-colonial domination, double standards, and neglect for developing countries’ concerns, rather than with liberal principles and multilateralism. Still, notwithstanding many states’ alienation from the existing international order and its de facto guardians, these societies do not necessarily view the world through the lens of “the West against the rest.”While revisionist autocrats have portrayed contemporary geopolitical struggles in these terms, many respondents in Brazil, India, and South Africa do not. Nor does alienation with the global order necessarily translate into support for autocratic revisionism. When asked to rate the attractiveness of rules shaped mostly by Russia and China, as opposed to the United States and Europe, respondents in India, Brazil, and South Africa show a <a fr-original-style="" href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2023/introduction/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">clear preference</a> for the latter. To <a fr-original-style="" href="https://blogs.fcdo.gov.uk/petermillett/2014/03/05/the-worst-form-of-government/#:~:text=Winston%20Churchill%20once%20said%20that,winning%20the%20Second%20World%20War." style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">paraphrase</a> Winston Churchill, many countries seem to see the liberal, rules-based international order as the worst type – except for all the others.With such a diversity of concerns and cleavages, simply defending the status quo is not an option for those who want liberal-democratic rules and principles to prevail. Liberal democracies urgently must refine their own vision of the international order.To make the liberal order more attractive to a broader global constituency, its advocates must look beyond the narrow lens of <a fr-original-style="" href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2023/introduction/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">systemic competition</a>. Though the contest between democracies and autocracies is one defining feature of global politics today, the many other divides that are shaping public opinion must not be overlooked. Only by accounting for them can liberal democracies clarify how their revised international rulebook would address people’s legitimate concerns.The Munich Security Report points to some of the key questions. How can the world <a fr-original-style="" href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2023/global-infrastructures/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">trade system</a> be reformed both to foster mutual prosperity and mitigate the vulnerabilities that come with global interdependencies? How can <a fr-original-style="" href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2023/human-rights/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">human-rights norms</a> and enforcement mechanisms better square the protection of individual freedoms with more collective notions of well-being? And, most important, how could the liberal international order <a fr-original-style="" href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2023/development-cooperation/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">better represent</a> the many countries that have hitherto been consigned to the status of rule-takers?As the atrocities and costs stemming from <a fr-original-style="" href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2023/spotlight-ukraine/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Russia’s war</a> show, the international order certainly does not need revisionism. But it does urgently need a “<a fr-original-style="" href="https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2023/introduction/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">re-envisioning</a>” of key institutions, processes, and frameworks, so that it can better uphold the principles upon which it was founded.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Tobias Bunde, Director of Research and Policy at the Munich Security Conference, is a researcher at the Hertie School’s Centre for International Security and co-editor (with Benedikt Franke) of&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ullstein-buchverlage.de/nc/buch/details/the-art-of-diplomacy-9783430210775.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">The Art of Diplomacy: 75 Views Behind the Scenes of World Politics</a>&nbsp;(Ullstein, 2022).Sophie Eisentraut is Head of Research and Publications at the Munich Security Conference.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023. <a fr-original-style="" href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a>

As the atrocities and costs stemming from Russia’s war show, the international order certainly does not need revisionism. However, it does urgently need a “re-envisioning” of key institutions, processes, and frameworks, so that it can better uphold the liberal principles upon which it was founded.

By&nbsp;Mathias BernardMore than <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2023/01/19/french-strikes-against-pension-reform-bring-trains-buses-schools-to-close_6012131_5.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">1 million people</a> poured onto the streets in France on Thursday to protest the government’s plans to reform the pension regime. The bill, which was presented to the Council of Ministers on Monday, aims to raise the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64 years old starting from 2030. It would also bring an end to some of the country’s specialised retirement regimes, whereby certain workers get bigger pension pots and to retire earlier than others (rail or post workers, for example). It is due to be debated at the French assembly on 30 January.Pension reform is one of the defining issues of Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term, as he looks to become the president who resolves a quandary that has troubled French presidents since the early 1990s. The policy was one of <a fr-original-style="" href="https://avecvous.fr/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Emmanuel-Macron-Avec-Vous-24-pages.pdf" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">the central pledges</a> of his 2022 presidential campaign, after he postponed it due to the double pressure of the streets and the Covid pandemic.It is set to be hotly contested by trade unions, activists and politicians from the left and centre. In this regard, Thursday’s massive turnout was but one of a series of actions in what is expected to be a long tug of war between the government and the streets. The next strike is slated for 31 January, and in the days running up to it, trade unions have announced plans to disrupt the railway network, ports infrastructure, and the oil and nuclear sectors.So who will prevail, the people out in the streets or the government? As a historian specialised in French social movements, I can attest the evolution of the past 30 years does not play in the strikers’ favour, notwithstanding some notable victories.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">1995: the great showdown against pension reform</h2>Many of those taking to the streets today will be hoping to replicate the spectacular demonstrations of November-December 1995 – the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.persee.fr/doc/espat_0339-3267_1997_num_64_1_4010" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">largest in the country since May 68</a>. At the time, the right-wing government led by Jacques Chirac (1995-2007) sought to impose an austerity package known by the name of its then prime minister, Alain Juppé. Intended to tighten to public purse’s strings ahead of France’s adoption of the euro currency, Plan Juppé‘s reforms would have – among others – raised employees’ contribution to retirement funds and aligned specialised retirement regimes with that of the general public.Things didn’t work out as the government hoped. Public-sector workers and students turned out en masse to oppose the plans, and for over three weeks, trade unions brought the country’s transport network to a halt. In Paris, one takes hours to go anywhere by car, bike, foot or hitchhiking. Some commuters are left with no option but to sleep at their offices. At the movement’s apex, more than 2 million people took part in the demonstrations of the 12 December, one out of six national strike days.Despite the disruptions they created, the 1995 protests enjoyed considerable public support –- so much, in fact, the media talked about a <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.lesinrocks.com/actu/reforme-des-retraites-pourquoi-la-mobilisation-sociale-de-1995-reste-lune-des-grandes-victoires-du-mouvement-syndical-192793-09-12-2019/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">“strike by proxy”</a>. On 15 December, Alain Juppé had no choice but to call an end to the pension-reform project.The failure dealt a blow to Jacques Chirac at the start of his first seven-year term. It was also one of the factors that contributed to the right’s defeat in the elections held after the president <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ina.fr/ina-eclaire-actu/21-avril-1997-le-president-jacques-chirac-annonce-la-dissolution-de-l-assemblee-nationale" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">dissolved the National Assembly in 1997</a>.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Political prudence</h2>Just as the memory of May 1968 fuelled a phobia of student movements within the political class, the 1995 strike and the failure of the Plan Juppé lent credence to the idea the pension reform presented high political risks. This likely explains the extreme caution with which successive French governments have approached the subject.In 2003, still under the Chirac presidency, it was the Minister of Social Affairs, François Fillon, and not the prime minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, who carried out a pension reform. While careful not to touch the special pension regimes, he still had to reckon with a <a fr-original-style="" href="https://enseignants.lumni.fr/fiche-media/00000000488/la-reforme-des-retraites-en-2003.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">major strike movement</a>, which saw a turnout of <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/archives/article/2003/05/14/mobilisation-massive-du-13-mai-lendemains-de-greve-incertains_320034_1819218.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">nearly 1 million people</a>. But unlike the 1995 strikes, the trade unions failed to gain public backing, allowing Fillon to pass his reform.In the autumn of 2007, only a few months after his presidential inauguration, Nicolas Sarkozy introduced a bill that would have also upped the contribution period for beneficiaries of special retirement schemes from 37 to 40 years. Like Macron’s pension reform today, the policy was one of Sarkozy’s main <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.cairn.info/revue-gouvernement-et-action-publique-2017-3-page-85.htm" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">campaign pledges</a>. Faced with a well-supported social movement in the transport and electricity sectors, he gave his Minister of Labour, Xavier Bertrand, a great deal of latitude to negotiate, making some economists say that this reform was one of <a fr-original-style="" href="https://editions.flammarion.com/les-reformes-ratees-du-president-sarkozy/9782081238022" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">“failed reforms of President Sarkozy”</a>.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The state vs. the street</h2>In truth, the impact of social reforms is of little importance. They are above all a matter of conveying an impression of change and symbolically affirming the power of the state over that of the street. This is perhaps more than ever the case with incoming presidents. When starting his mandate, Sarkozy was only too aware how a large-scale student movement had just forced the preceding government to backtrack on plans to introduce a “first employment contract” – a framework that would have essentially made it easier to fire employees under 26.Even in cases where it is symbolic, this victory of the state emboldens successive governments to push their reform projects, as modern day protests multiply, radicalise and even occasionally escape the control of trade unions. In this instance, one can think of the civil disobedience movement <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/are-frances-nuitdebout-protests-the-start-of-a-new-political-movement-57706" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Nuit debout</a>, which has been compared to the Occupy Wall Street movement in the United States, 15M in Spain, and the more recent <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/why-frances-gilets-jaunes-protesters-are-so-angry-108100" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Gilets Jaunes</a> protests.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Governments’ increasing show of force</h2>The past years have seen French governments increasingly turn a blind eye to demonstrators. Thus in 2010, labour minister Eric Woerth pushed back the retirement age from 60 to 62 years old, notwithstanding strikes that brought more <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2010/06/24/retraites-pres-de-2-millions-de-manifestants-selon-les-syndicats_1378302_3224.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">than one million people in the streets (2 million, according to trade unions)</a>. In 2016 and 2017, presidents Hollande and then Macron also ignored protests and did not hesitate to resort to <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/gouvernement-de-limpossible-compromis-au-49.3-185879" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Article 49.3</a> – a legislative device enabling the government to bypass parliament for measures relating to social security – to relax labour regulations.More than protest, it is the Covid crisis that has undermined efforts to adopt the pension reform began under the government of Édouard Philippe (2017-2020). However, the tussle between the state and the street that started on 19 January could well see Macron succeed, particularly now that the government has negotiated a parliamentary majority with the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/politique/video/sur-la-reforme-des-retraites-les-lr-obtiennent-une-concession-sur-ce-point_212671.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">right-wing party Les Républicains</a> to pass it.Beyond the issue of pensions, Macron is betting on his ability to assert himself in the face of opposition in many forms. This is a major test, the outcome of which will inevitably influence <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2023/01/18/reforme-des-retraites-emmanuel-macron-de-nouveau-a-l-epreuve-de-la-rue_6158285_823448.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">his entire second term in office</a>.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Mathias Bernard is the&nbsp;president of the University of Clermont Auvergne, which receives public funding.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">This article is republished from <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/pension-reform-in-france-macron-and-demonstrators-resume-epic-tussle-begun-over-30-years-ago-198354" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">original article</a>.

So who will prevail, the people out in the streets or the government? 

Pension reform in France: Macron and demonstrators resume epic tussle begun over 30 years ago

More than 2.5 million people in France <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/more-than-25m-in-france-protest-controversial-pension-reforms-union/2817326" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">protested</a> the government's pension reform plans on Saturday, according to media reports citing the General Labor Confederation union. Workers from all sectors are objecting to reform plans which were announced in January.The reform plans include raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 in 2030 and requiring at least 43 years of work to be eligible for full pensions. These terms have triggered public outrage since the governmen's annoucement.According to the CGT, figures for Saturday are fewer than those from a 31 January protest with 2.8 million recorded participants. However the protest was bigger than 19 January and 7 February protests.Le Figaro reported that the police and demonstrators clashed in Paris and that the police arrested 10 people as one officer was injured.Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin tweeted that 10,000 police officers would ensure security during the protests, including 4,500 in Paris.