<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Assad regime collapsed: celebrations and worry</h2><img src="https://images.aposto.com/2024/11/1/1733743621321.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.50" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">We are on the eve of a major change in the Middle East. The suddenness and significance of the past few days' events are difficult to overemphasize. Great power politics are at play, regional shifts rooted in the October 7 attacks are unfolding, and there are likely to be major implications for every actor involved—and they are numerous.By: Alp AkişBashar Assad’s regime, which ruled Syria for 24 years, has fallen. Much of his tenure was marked by brutal repression of regime critics following the 2011 protests that ignited a deadly civil war. Although Assad’s regime didn’t control all of Syria, it had appeared stable until its sudden collapse. The regime fell within days after rebel forces, led by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a lightning offensive. This offensive shook the international community when HTS captured the critical city of Aleppo with little resistance. Following the initial shock, it took anti-regime forces just eight days to seize the capital, Damascus.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Assad seems to have fled the country, and is reportedly taking refuge in Russia.</li></ul>Important note:&nbsp;HTS is a coalition of northern Syria-based Sunni Islamist insurgent groups that evolved from Jabhat al-Nusrah (the Nusrah Front), al-Qaida’s former branch in Syria. HTS is designated as a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council and several countries, including the US, the EU, Turkey, and the UK.Zoom out:&nbsp;Regional and global dynamics played a significant role in setting the stage for the offensive’s success. Assad’s closest allies—and primary sources of military power—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, are severely weakened and distracted by their own conflicts. With Assad’s support base diminished, anti-regime rebels seized the opportunity to advance further.<h2 dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The Turkey connection</h2>What has happened in Syria relates to Turkey on both the level of cause and effect. Turkey is a key regional actor and has taken an active role in supporting anti-regime forces, notably the Syrian National Army (SNA). While the SNA did not directly participate in the HTS-led offensive, it launched concurrent attacks on regime targets in the north.<p contenteditable="false" fr-original-class="custom-button-wrapper fr-deletable" fr-original-style="text-align:center" style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><a bgcolor="#ffe144" color="#090909" contenteditable="false" fr-original-class="custom-button-link" fr-original-style="background-color:#ffe144 !important;color:#090909 !important" href="https://aposto.com/s/assad-regime-collapsed-celebrations-and-worry?a=customButton" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: rgb(255, 225, 68) !important; color: rgb(9, 9, 9) !important; text-decoration: none; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">FULL ARTICLE</a>

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