<a fr-original-style="" href="https://twitter.com/AbdullahEsin" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Abdullah Esin</a>The opposition's transition to a parliamentary system, announced by DEVA Party spokesperson Idris Sahin on a television program, has sparked many debates. Although this transition scenario, also referred to as a "de facto parliamentary system," has not yet been officially announced and accepted by the opposition alliance, it has already been expressed as the opposition's strategy for transition to a parliamentary system.The basis of this transition strategy is that if the joint presidential candidate, nominated by the opposition parties wins the elections, he/she will hand over some of his/her duties and powers and act as a symbolic president. Habertürk's Kübra Par summarizes this strategy as follows:<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">The opposition parties will change the presidential system through a referendum if they get more than 360 deputies in the parliamentary elections, or without a referendum if they get more than 400 deputies. However, they will not hold another general or presidential election. In the 2023 general elections, the leader of the party with the highest votes number will be given the task to form a government. If this person receives a vote of confidence in parliament, he/she will become prime minister. If not, the party leader with the most votes will have the chance to form a government. At the same time, the President elected in the 2023 elections will continue to be the President of the Republic even if they move into a parliamentary system.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">In the second scenario, where the opposition parties win the presidential elections but fail to gain a sufficient majority in the parliament, the "de facto government" formula will come into play. The President elected in the general elections will not exercise all of his duties and powers, and one of his vice-presidents will practically assume the role of Prime Minister.</li></ul>In other words, the opposition alliance plans a transition to a parliamentary system de jure or de facto, even if it fails to win 360 parliamentary seats in parliament if it wins the presidential elections. The fact that the strategy for the transition to a parliamentary system has not been made public by all opposition parties in a unified manner has led to various debates and speculations.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Risks are great</h2>The most important question regarding this strategy is: If the opposition parties plan to delegate the President's powers to a symbolic figure in case they win the elections, will the joint presidential candidate for the 2023 elections also be a symbolic figure?A symbolic presidential candidate can be nominated consonant with the transition strategy to a parliamentary system. But then, it should not be ruled out that this would create a great deal of indecision among the voter.Considering that many opinion polls show that undecided voters have the majority to change the fate of the election, nominating a symbolic name as the Presidential candidate may harm winning the votes of these undecided voters. In a scenario where the opposition candidate wins the presidential election, the elected President's transfer of their duties and powers to the leader of the party that received the highest number of votes would create a crisis of legitimacy.The "de facto parliamentary system" formula, which comes into play in the second scenario where the opposition parties fail to win 360 parliamentary seats, causes great confusion as its details are not fully explained. In this scenario, the joint candidate of the opposition parties who wins the presidential elections would again not exercise his/her duties and powers, and one of the vice-presidents would become the de facto Prime Minister. As in the first scenario, the powers of the popularly elected President to govern the country and initiate the transition to a parliamentary system would be transferred to a person without electoral legitimacy.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The task of the opposition</h2>It should be taken into account that both scenarios envisaging a transition to a parliamentary system would create a significant legitimacy problem in the eyes of voters. Especially when we face the fact that undecided voters can determine the fate of the election, the most significant strategy of the opposition parties should be a joint candidate who will win the trust of both the voters who support the opposition parties and the undecided voters.The presidential government system is one of the most important causes of the current political and economic crisis in Turkey. Return to the parliamentary system after the 2023 elections could provide long-term solutions to vital problems such as the 20-year-long institutional erosion and the destruction of checks and balances. However, to restart Turkey's long-term institutional construction, it is crucial for the opposition to base its electoral strategy on realpolitik and to nominate a common candidate who can win the votes and trust of both swing voters and the entire opposition bloc.

Idris Sahin ile ilgili hikayeler