<a fr-original-style="" href="https://twitter.com/bartuozden" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Bartu Özden</a>Brazil, led by scandal-plagued President Jair Bolsonaro, will hold a crucial presidential election on October 2. In the US, Donald Trump's unsubstantiated allegations of electoral fraud and th armed raid on Congress during his handover of power to Democratic President Joe Biden have led to a debate on the difficulty of removing authoritarian populist leaders from power through free elections.In Brazil, which does not have as institutionalized a democracy as the US, the course of the election period and the possible transition period afterward will be followed with interest by those who are concerned about the electoral transition of power from authoritarian/populist governments.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Bolsonaro's arrival</h2>In Brazil, where leftist ideology dominated for many years, the failure to meet the economic demands of the middle class and the impeachment of socialist President Dilma Roussef in 2016 as a result of corruption investigations created a rupture in the country. This rupture was interpreted as empowering the populist right against left populism, which had historically been monopolized by the left in South America. And the far-right Jair Bolsonaro won the 2018 presidential elections with 55% of the vote.Bolsonaro, a former soldier, has moved increasingly to the right ideologically since he entered local politics in 1988. In his presidential campaign, he declared that he would "save Brazil from political correctness, immorality, and socialism." Criticizing the dictatorship for "not having enough murders," Bolsonaro opposed abortion, equal pay for women, and social rights for homosexuals while advocating a license for the police to kill, individual armament, the continuation of religious tradition, and a broadening of the definition of terrorism.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Bolsonaro's record</h2>While quarantine measures have been taken over the world at the beginning of the pandemic, Bolsonaro, who pursued a policy of "gaining herd immunity through infection," was heavily protested by the public. Investigations had opened against him for "spreading false news" for his comments that COVID-19 vaccines increase the likelihood of contracting AIDS, and for "committing crimes against humanity" for turning down early vaccination opportunities and endangering public health. Brazil was the highest number of COVID-19 deaths after the United States, with more than 672,000 deaths.The dollar exchange rate, which was 3.64 when Bolsonaro took office, fell by nearly 45% to 5.31. Inflation also surpassed 12%, the highest level in 26 years. In a country of 212 million people, the number of citizens below the poverty line exceeded 125 million, and the number of starving people exceeded 33 million. The support's 68 million people receiving social assistance was cut.On the other hand, during the Bolsonaro era, 10% of the Amazon rainforest in the country was destroyed and logging accelerated by 88% due to road construction and oil exploration in forests known as the world's vital point. Bolsonaro has been trialed for "crimes against humanity" at the International Criminal Court.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">It's coming: Lula wind</h2>Lula da Silva, the leftist Workers' Party leader who served as President of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, was sentenced to nine and a half years in prison in 2017 for bribery allegations against him. He was released after two years when the Supreme Court ruled that the verdict was unfair.With promises to fight racism, inflation, an economy based on employment, production, and agriculture and the resumption of social assistance, the 76-year-old Lula has become the greatest hope of poor Brazilians. For now, polls show that Lula is ahead of Bolsonaro by at least 10%. And Lula will be easily elected in the second round with the support of centrist candidates.Lula has commented that "leadership is not learned at the university" about the candidates who continue to try to create a third alternative in the center but fail to reach double digits in the polls. However, he appears to have softened the revolutionary tone of his first term and is moving forward with a program that includes the center and even the center-right against Bolsonaro.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Concerns about the transition</h2>Having failed to achieve the success he wanted in the economy, Bolsonaro is looking for a solution to Lula's rise by increasing the tone of identity politics and polarization. He wants to retain the religious, especially the evangelicals who made a difference in the previous election. "God put him in office, and only God can remove him from office," he says.He says he is fighting against the "centers of tutelage" and needs to be elected for another term "to establish real power."In an interview with FOX News host Tucker Carlson, known for his provocative comments, Bolsonaro tries to pump distrust and fear into the public by saying that a leftist victory would turn the country into Venezuela and that he would never leave if the left took power. He calls on his supporters to arm themselves.Bolsonaro, who accused the electronic voting system of being unreliable and the electoral boards of privileging leftists, is already setting up a discourse in which he will claim that the election results are rigged, just like Trump. His campaign director son Flavio Bolsonaro's statement that "his polls show a victory in the first round. Otherwise the response will not be within the jurisdiction" reinforces concerns of internal conflict and a state of emergency.

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