The Syrian government has lost control of its second largest city, Aleppo, for the first time since the country's civil war began in 2011. The Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the main force behind the drive which is still going on with forces pushing South towards Hama, another important city, and the capital Damascus.Important note:&nbsp;Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a coalition of northern Syria-based Sunni Islamist insurgent groups that evolved from Jabhat al-Nusrah, or “Nusrah Front,” al-Qaida’s former branch in Syria. HTS is designated as a terrorist group by the UN Security Council and countries including the US, the EU, Turkey and the UK.Russia–historically a supporter of the government–has launched strikes in Aleppo and Idlib along with regime forces. The strikes killed 372 people, including 48 civilians, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.Looking ahead:&nbsp;Syrian government has said that is preparing for a counter-offensive.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Context and why now?</h2>So much is still unknown as this unexpected break to the status quo favoring President Bashar al-Assad is unfolding. On the other hand, all this is not happening in isolation: regional and global dynamics are playing a huge part. Most notably, Assad's closest allies—and main source of the regime's military power— Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are seriously weakened and distracted by their own wars.With Assad weakened due to decreased support from allies, anti-regime rebels are seizing the opportunity to advance further.Another key global development that may be playing a part in the latest developments is Trump's election: the President-elect indicated that he would want to withdraw US soldiers from Syria. Trump's pick to run the country's health department, Robert F Kennedy Jr said on Wednesday that Trump wants to remove US troops from northern Syria rather than leaving them as "cannon fodder" if fighting broke out between Turkey and Kurdish fighters.The backstory:&nbsp;Since 2014, the US has provided support for the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fight against the Islamic State group (IS).The YPG, which controls much of northern Syria, is considered an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) by Turkey, which has repeatedly launched military incursion into Syria in an attempt to stop the group securing a continuous area of territory along the Syrian-Turkish border.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Turkey's involvement</h2>Another important aspect of this is Turkey. Most experts are in agreement that this week's developments are not independent of Ankara. This is natural as Turkey backs the anti-regime Syrian National Army (SNA) which is also taking part in the current fighting but focusing on YPG targets, which Ankara says may help Assad in exchange of regional influence over the region located on the Turkish border.Ankara is busy with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday, stressed that Türkiye opposes developments that would increase instability in the region and will never allow terrorist activities targeting Syrian civilians. Fidan has also discussed recent developments with his Russian and Saudi counterparts over the phone, Turkish state media reported.Furthermore:&nbsp;Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghci is visiting Turkey today.Another part of the story is that Ankara has been making more than a few moves to bring Assad to the negotiating table to normalize relations and discuss the return of "Syrians Under Protection (SUP)", a legal designation for the millions of Syrian refugees who fled the Assad regime. Just this week, President Erdoğan said: "We will speed up the process of voluntary return of the Syrian refugees to their homeland."However Turkish advances were not reciprocated by Assad, who refused to engage in talks before Turkish and Turkey-backed forces ended their presence in the country. A weakened Assad would be more willing to negotiate with and potentially capitulate to Ankara, meaning that Turkey does have some interest in the success of rebel groups' advance into Syria.Yet another aspect of the ongoing fighting that relates to Turkey has got to do with what's been happening in Turkey with respect to the Kurds. Recently, Erdoğan and his ultranationalist coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli have made statements saying that "Kurdish problem" should be resolved peacefully and by engaging with top PKK leadership—a complete reversal of years long policies.Recommended read:<a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/s/kurdish-problem-on-the-eve-of-a-new-peace-process" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">&nbsp;'Kurdish problem': On the eve of a new peace process?</a> | Aposto WorldIn short, Turkey welcomes the developments of the week that wealen Assad. But the prospect of US withdrawal triggers longstanding worries about YPG's influence in the region, as this could potentially push YPG to cooperate with Assad. This leads to Ankara's support for SNA's offensives into Kurdish-majority towns in Syria.

Aposto World

The dormant situation in Syria, with balance of power tilting toward the Assad government, has been rocked by a lightning offensive from anti-regime forces. Ankara is not just watching.

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