The establishment of the Ba'ath regime - 1971Since World War I, Syria has been one of the world’s most contested territories. A significant turning point in this ongoing conflict was when Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad's father, came to power through a coup in 1971.The Ba'ath regime was an ideological movement that emphasized Arab unity with the slogan "Unity, Freedom, Socialism. " It was led primarily by military officers in the Arab world and adopted an anti-imperialist stance against external interventions in the region.Family and regime unity - 1971-2000As Hafez al-Assad consolidated his power, the Assad family and the Ba'ath regime became increasingly intertwined. New economic policies created a new social class surrounding the family and the government. At the same time, a sectarian approach was adopted within the military to build a strict pro-regime bureaucratic structure.By the 1990s, Hafez al-Assad's health started to deteriorate, and the regime had become tightly centered around the family. His son, Bashar al-Assad, who had been studying ophthalmology in London, returned to Syria during this period and was swiftly promoted to the rank of brigadier general.The rise of Bashar al-Assad - 2000-2011After Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, a constitutional amendment lowered the eligibility age for the presidency to 34, enabling his son, Bashar al-Assad, to be elected as the sole candidate.Bashar's rise to power marked the start of a reform period dubbed the "Damascus Spring," during which initiatives such as a general amnesty brought a brief sense of freedom. His tenure also witnessed a thaw in relations with Turkey. Hafez al-Assad's stance on the PKK had frequently strained ties with Turkey, but a new path was taken under Bashar alongside Turkey’s AK Party government.Return to authoritarian ruleHowever, the winds of reform in Syria were short-lived. Shortly after the Damascus Spring, many reforms were abandoned in the name of "national unity and stability," and an authoritarian governance approach under Assad-loyal actors and the establishment continued.Amid growing social unrest, the Assad regime leveraged sectarian conflicts in the region to its advantage. In 2007, Bashar al-Assad was re-elected in an uncontested election, solidifying his grip on power. But the winds of another spring were blowing across the Middle East.The Arab Spring - 2011The Arab Spring, swept across the Middle East in 2011, led to mass protests and regime changes in several Arab states. Though the changes in neighboring countries unsettled the Assad family, Bashar al-Assad did not believe such a transformation was possible in Syria.Peaceful protests in Syria met with a harsh crackdown from the regime. The brutal treatment of schoolchildren who wrote anti-government graffiti ignited widespread outrage. Despite severe repression, protests quickly spread across Syria.From reform to civil war - 2011-2015As the regime responded to protests with armed attacks, opposition groups escalated their struggle, leading to the first waves of mass displacement. International actors became involved, and while the Assad regime initially offered some concessions, it quickly abandoned them, intensifying its crackdown on opposition forces.Turkey, siding with the opposition, severed all ties with the Assad regime. The increasing militarization of opposition groups in response to the regime’s escalating repression turned the mass protests into a 15-year-long civil war. While the regime's violent suppression backfired, sparking mass displacement, it also led to the emergence of new armed factions.Russian intervention and the rise of ISIS - 2015-2021By 2015, the Assad regime had lost significant territory and was weakening. However, direct military intervention from Russia turned Syria into a stage for international power struggles. While the regime regained much of its lost territory, the number of actors involved in the conflict multiplied.The rapid rise of ISIS, whose foundations were laid during the Damascus Spring with the release of certain groups, caused global concern in 2014. In the north, the U.S. collaborated with the Syrian branch of the PKK, the PYD, to eliminate ISIS from the region, shifting the balance once again.The calm before the storm - 2021-2024Turkey’s intervention alongside the opposition Free Syrian Army to push back the PYD, coupled with Russia's support for Assad’s regime, created a temporary lull in the region. Assad regained some lost territories and began taking international steps toward regional stability.However, in 2023, Hamas’s attack on Israel reignited tensions. Israel's subsequent large-scale Middle Eastern offensive with U.S. support weakened Syria's key allies, Hezbollah and Iran. Meanwhile, Russia was grappling with a protracted war in Ukraine that began in 2022.The fall of the regime - 2024By late 2024, regional tensions had escalated dramatically. Amid this backdrop, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, broke a ceasefire in place since 2020 and launched a major offensive. Turkey-backed SMO forces joined in, capturing Aleppo within a short time.Facing minimal resistance, the Assad regime retreated, and by December 8, Bashar al-Assad fled the country, leaving Damascus under opposition control.How this regime change will affect Turkey will be explored in our upcoming posts.

Aposto World

The 14-year-long Syrian Civil War has entered a new phase. As the hot agenda in the region continues, we have compiled a brief history of the developments in Syria.

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