Bashar Assad’s regime, which ruled Syria for 24 years, has fallen. Much of his tenure was marked by brutal repression of regime critics following the 2011 protests that ignited a deadly civil war. Although Assad’s regime didn’t control all of Syria, it had appeared stable until its sudden collapse. The regime fell within days after rebel forces, led by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a lightning offensive. This offensive shook the international community when HTS captured the critical city of Aleppo with little resistance. Following the initial shock, it took anti-regime forces just eight days to seize the capital, Damascus.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Assad seems to have fled the country, and is reportedly taking refuge in Russia.&nbsp;</li></ul>Important note:&nbsp;HTS is a coalition of northern Syria-based Sunni Islamist insurgent groups that evolved from Jabhat al-Nusrah (the Nusrah Front), al-Qaida’s former branch in Syria. HTS is designated as a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council and several countries, including the US, the EU, Turkey, and the UK.Zoom out:&nbsp;Regional and global dynamics played a significant role in setting the stage for the offensive’s success. Assad’s closest allies—and primary sources of military power—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, are severely weakened and distracted by their own conflicts. With Assad’s support base diminished, anti-regime rebels seized the opportunity to advance further.<h2 dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The Turkey connection</h2>What has happened in Syria relates to Turkey on both the level of cause and effect. Turkey is a key regional actor and has taken an active role in supporting anti-regime forces, notably the Syrian National Army (SNA). While the SNA did not directly participate in the HTS-led offensive, it launched concurrent attacks on regime targets in the north.In recent months, Turkey had been trying to negotiate with Assad, seeking security guarantees and a plan to repatriate some of the millions of Syrians in Turkey who are legally designated as Syrians Under Temporary Protection (SUTP). Assad, however, refused to engage, prompting Turkish President Erdoğan to remark, “You should have listened.”The quote: Erdoğan had on Friday voiced support for the rebel advance in Syria and said the Assad government failed to "grasp the value of the hand extended by us," referring to his earlier calls for face-to-face talks.Now, there are major questions for and from Ankara regarding what’s next for: Syrians in Turkey; Ankara’s relations with the new Syrian government—once it emerges; Israel’s increased control in the region, the territorial unity of Syria—which hasn’t existed in practice for some years now; the possibility of an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria…<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Recommended read:<a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/s/syrian-civil-war-enters-new-stage-implications-for-turkey" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">&nbsp;Syrian civil war enters new stage: implications for Turkey</a> | Aposto World</li></ul>And an important reminder is that concurrently to Ankara’s attempts to engage with Assad and the following collapse of the regime, Turkey is internally launching—with debatable success and sincerity—a peace process with the Kurds, even attempting to establish dialogue with the imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.<h2 dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Image change, good PR, or transformation?</h2>HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani underwent a serious image change and enjoyed plenty of favorable coverage by the Western media in the past weeks. HTS leader is the founder of the al-Nusra Front, Syria’s branch of Al-Qaida. Al-Jolani coordinated in those early years with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, head of al-Qaeda’s “Islamic State in Iraq”, which later became ISIL (ISIS). He later distanced himself from Baghdadi and Al-Qaida to found HTS and join forces with other groups fleeing Assad regime forces in Aleppo.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">The stated aim of HTS is to liberate Syria from Assad’s autocratic government, “expelling Iranian militias” from the country and establishing a state according to their own interpretation of “Islamic law”, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think-tank in Washington, DC.</li></ul>But he managed to spare time during the lightning offensive to give interviews to the media where he essentially said that he and the organization have changed, whereas he was a fanatic revolutionary in the past, he was now a statesman who valued a polycultural society and would respect the rights of all Syrians, regardless of sectarian identity.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2024/11/0/1733688990028.png" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" width="550" ratio="1.45" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">CNN's coverage of Jolani's "transformation" | CNNHis, and HTS’s, rebranding was further enforced through the group’s official <a fr-original-style="" href="https://x.com/azelin/status/1865457733094576177?s=48&t=XauZzsAoOVOcyiQ7cFjOYA" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">announcements</a> that carried a cool-headed tone that seeks friendly relations with foreign powers—including Assad-allied Russia. HTS also said during the siege of Damascus that any regime officials who defected or denied to cooperate with the government would not be harmed. After taking the city, HTS assured citizens that all were safe as long as they do n0t take actions against the group.<h2 dir="ltr" fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">International reactions</h2>Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran was never supposed to replace the Syrian army in confronting the opponents and that Iran's military presence in Syria was to fight ISIS.Turkey's FM Hakan Fidan told the press that Turkey "wanted to see a Syria that gets along with its neighbors" and was "willing to give the needed support". He added that "Turkey will play its part to ensure Syria's territorial integrity, security and stability.France's caretaker foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot said they would support the transition and added that events in Syria were a stunning defeat for Russia.The US&nbsp;"strongly supports" a peaceful transition of power to an accountable Syrian government "through an inclusive Syrian-led process," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Sunday.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">The quote:&nbsp;"We have taken note of statements made by rebel leaders in recent days, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions."</li></ul>“After 14 years of brutal war and the fall of the dictatorial regime, today the people of Syria can seize an historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a statement.Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the fall of al-Assad, a major ally of Iran, as an “historic day” and said it was a direct result of blows dealt to Hezbollah and Iran by Israel.The Russian Foreign Ministry said Assad had resigned from the presidency after talks with the sides involved in the conflict and had left the country, without saying where he has gone.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">The quote:&nbsp;“As a result of talks between B. Assad and a range of participants of the conflict on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic, he took the decision to resign from his presidential post and leave the country, giving instructions to proceed with the peaceful transfer of power. Russia did not take part in these talks.”</li></ul>

Aposto World

We are on the eve of a major change in the Middle East. The suddenness and significance of the past few days' events are difficult to overemphasize. Great power politics are at play, regional shifts rooted in the October 7 attacks are unfolding, and there are likely to be major implications for every actor involved—and they are numerous.

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