<span fr-original-class="customBullet" fr-original-style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 12px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block;" style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 12px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;">•&nbsp; 'It's getting late':&nbsp;Germany's Federal Office for Migration and Refugees has announced that it will freeze all asylum applications from Syrians due to the uncertain situation in Syria. Over 47,000 asylum applications are affected by the decision.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Furthermore:&nbsp;Austria's conservative-led government said on Friday it is offering Syrian refugees a "return bonus" of 1,000 euros to move back to their home country after the fall of Bashar al-Assad.</li></ul><ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Zoom out:&nbsp;Deporting people against their will is not possible until it becomes clearer what direction Syria is taking. For now, Austria's government has said it will focus on voluntary deportations. It has also stopped processing Syrians' asylum applications, as have more than a dozen European countries.</li></ul>

Aposto World

<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2024/11/1/1734345650608.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.39" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">The 1,500km long pipeline would transport gas from Qatar to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Türkiye and finally to Europe, which has been struggling to adequately replace Russian gas since the Ukraine war | AA<span fr-original-class="customBullet" fr-original-style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 12px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block;" style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 12px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;">•&nbsp; Post-Assad Pipeline:&nbsp;A natural gas pipeline project between Türkiye and Qatar could be resumed following Bashar al-Assad's fall, according to Turkish energy minister Alpraslan Bayraktar.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">A step back:&nbsp;The pipeline, which would pass through Syrian territory, was rejected by Assad back in 2009.</li></ul>

The establishment of the Ba'ath regime - 1971Since World War I, Syria has been one of the world’s most contested territories. A significant turning point in this ongoing conflict was when Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad's father, came to power through a coup in 1971.The Ba'ath regime was an ideological movement that emphasized Arab unity with the slogan "Unity, Freedom, Socialism. " It was led primarily by military officers in the Arab world and adopted an anti-imperialist stance against external interventions in the region.Family and regime unity - 1971-2000As Hafez al-Assad consolidated his power, the Assad family and the Ba'ath regime became increasingly intertwined. New economic policies created a new social class surrounding the family and the government. At the same time, a sectarian approach was adopted within the military to build a strict pro-regime bureaucratic structure.By the 1990s, Hafez al-Assad's health started to deteriorate, and the regime had become tightly centered around the family. His son, Bashar al-Assad, who had been studying ophthalmology in London, returned to Syria during this period and was swiftly promoted to the rank of brigadier general.The rise of Bashar al-Assad - 2000-2011After Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, a constitutional amendment lowered the eligibility age for the presidency to 34, enabling his son, Bashar al-Assad, to be elected as the sole candidate.Bashar's rise to power marked the start of a reform period dubbed the "Damascus Spring," during which initiatives such as a general amnesty brought a brief sense of freedom. His tenure also witnessed a thaw in relations with Turkey. Hafez al-Assad's stance on the PKK had frequently strained ties with Turkey, but a new path was taken under Bashar alongside Turkey’s AK Party government.Return to authoritarian ruleHowever, the winds of reform in Syria were short-lived. Shortly after the Damascus Spring, many reforms were abandoned in the name of "national unity and stability," and an authoritarian governance approach under Assad-loyal actors and the establishment continued.Amid growing social unrest, the Assad regime leveraged sectarian conflicts in the region to its advantage. In 2007, Bashar al-Assad was re-elected in an uncontested election, solidifying his grip on power. But the winds of another spring were blowing across the Middle East.The Arab Spring - 2011The Arab Spring, swept across the Middle East in 2011, led to mass protests and regime changes in several Arab states. Though the changes in neighboring countries unsettled the Assad family, Bashar al-Assad did not believe such a transformation was possible in Syria.Peaceful protests in Syria met with a harsh crackdown from the regime. The brutal treatment of schoolchildren who wrote anti-government graffiti ignited widespread outrage. Despite severe repression, protests quickly spread across Syria.From reform to civil war - 2011-2015As the regime responded to protests with armed attacks, opposition groups escalated their struggle, leading to the first waves of mass displacement. International actors became involved, and while the Assad regime initially offered some concessions, it quickly abandoned them, intensifying its crackdown on opposition forces.Turkey, siding with the opposition, severed all ties with the Assad regime. The increasing militarization of opposition groups in response to the regime’s escalating repression turned the mass protests into a 15-year-long civil war. While the regime's violent suppression backfired, sparking mass displacement, it also led to the emergence of new armed factions.Russian intervention and the rise of ISIS - 2015-2021By 2015, the Assad regime had lost significant territory and was weakening. However, direct military intervention from Russia turned Syria into a stage for international power struggles. While the regime regained much of its lost territory, the number of actors involved in the conflict multiplied.The rapid rise of ISIS, whose foundations were laid during the Damascus Spring with the release of certain groups, caused global concern in 2014. In the north, the U.S. collaborated with the Syrian branch of the PKK, the PYD, to eliminate ISIS from the region, shifting the balance once again.The calm before the storm - 2021-2024Turkey’s intervention alongside the opposition Free Syrian Army to push back the PYD, coupled with Russia's support for Assad’s regime, created a temporary lull in the region. Assad regained some lost territories and began taking international steps toward regional stability.However, in 2023, Hamas’s attack on Israel reignited tensions. Israel's subsequent large-scale Middle Eastern offensive with U.S. support weakened Syria's key allies, Hezbollah and Iran. Meanwhile, Russia was grappling with a protracted war in Ukraine that began in 2022.The fall of the regime - 2024By late 2024, regional tensions had escalated dramatically. Amid this backdrop, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda, broke a ceasefire in place since 2020 and launched a major offensive. Turkey-backed SMO forces joined in, capturing Aleppo within a short time.Facing minimal resistance, the Assad regime retreated, and by December 8, Bashar al-Assad fled the country, leaving Damascus under opposition control.How this regime change will affect Turkey will be explored in our upcoming posts.

The 14-year-long Syrian Civil War has entered a new phase. As the hot agenda in the region continues, we have compiled a brief history of the developments in Syria.

What exactly happened in Syria?

The Syrian government has lost control of its second largest city, Aleppo, for the first time since the country's civil war began in 2011. The Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the main force behind the drive which is still going on with forces pushing South towards Hama, another important city, and the capital Damascus.Important note:&nbsp;Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a coalition of northern Syria-based Sunni Islamist insurgent groups that evolved from Jabhat al-Nusrah, or “Nusrah Front,” al-Qaida’s former branch in Syria. HTS is designated as a terrorist group by the UN Security Council and countries including the US, the EU, Turkey and the UK.Russia–historically a supporter of the government–has launched strikes in Aleppo and Idlib along with regime forces. The strikes killed 372 people, including 48 civilians, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.Looking ahead:&nbsp;Syrian government has said that is preparing for a counter-offensive.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Context and why now?</h2>So much is still unknown as this unexpected break to the status quo favoring President Bashar al-Assad is unfolding. On the other hand, all this is not happening in isolation: regional and global dynamics are playing a huge part. Most notably, Assad's closest allies—and main source of the regime's military power— Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are seriously weakened and distracted by their own wars.With Assad weakened due to decreased support from allies, anti-regime rebels are seizing the opportunity to advance further.Another key global development that may be playing a part in the latest developments is Trump's election: the President-elect indicated that he would want to withdraw US soldiers from Syria. Trump's pick to run the country's health department, Robert F Kennedy Jr said on Wednesday that Trump wants to remove US troops from northern Syria rather than leaving them as "cannon fodder" if fighting broke out between Turkey and Kurdish fighters.The backstory:&nbsp;Since 2014, the US has provided support for the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fight against the Islamic State group (IS).The YPG, which controls much of northern Syria, is considered an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) by Turkey, which has repeatedly launched military incursion into Syria in an attempt to stop the group securing a continuous area of territory along the Syrian-Turkish border.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Turkey's involvement</h2>Another important aspect of this is Turkey. Most experts are in agreement that this week's developments are not independent of Ankara. This is natural as Turkey backs the anti-regime Syrian National Army (SNA) which is also taking part in the current fighting but focusing on YPG targets, which Ankara says may help Assad in exchange of regional influence over the region located on the Turkish border.Ankara is busy with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday, stressed that Türkiye opposes developments that would increase instability in the region and will never allow terrorist activities targeting Syrian civilians. Fidan has also discussed recent developments with his Russian and Saudi counterparts over the phone, Turkish state media reported.Furthermore:&nbsp;Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghci is visiting Turkey today.Another part of the story is that Ankara has been making more than a few moves to bring Assad to the negotiating table to normalize relations and discuss the return of "Syrians Under Protection (SUP)", a legal designation for the millions of Syrian refugees who fled the Assad regime. Just this week, President Erdoğan said: "We will speed up the process of voluntary return of the Syrian refugees to their homeland."However Turkish advances were not reciprocated by Assad, who refused to engage in talks before Turkish and Turkey-backed forces ended their presence in the country. A weakened Assad would be more willing to negotiate with and potentially capitulate to Ankara, meaning that Turkey does have some interest in the success of rebel groups' advance into Syria.Yet another aspect of the ongoing fighting that relates to Turkey has got to do with what's been happening in Turkey with respect to the Kurds. Recently, Erdoğan and his ultranationalist coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli have made statements saying that "Kurdish problem" should be resolved peacefully and by engaging with top PKK leadership—a complete reversal of years long policies.Recommended read:<a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/s/kurdish-problem-on-the-eve-of-a-new-peace-process" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">&nbsp;'Kurdish problem': On the eve of a new peace process?</a> | Aposto WorldIn short, Turkey welcomes the developments of the week that wealen Assad. But the prospect of US withdrawal triggers longstanding worries about YPG's influence in the region, as this could potentially push YPG to cooperate with Assad. This leads to Ankara's support for SNA's offensives into Kurdish-majority towns in Syria.

The dormant situation in Syria, with balance of power tilting toward the Assad government, has been rocked by a lightning offensive from anti-regime forces. Ankara is not just watching.

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