• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-64656900" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">UK's Labour Party leader Keir Starmer</a> said his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn, who led the center-left opposition while stained by allegations of antisemitism, will not be allowed to run for the party in the next national election. Starmer said the part had changed and that they are "not going back," as a reason why the ex-part leader will not be a Labour candidate in the next election.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2023/1/3/1676491742599.png" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" alt="Corbyn and Starmer" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">via BBC<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">A step back: Jeremy Corbyn, a long-time supporter of Palestine and an Israel critic, was suspended from Labour party in 2020 after a UK watchdog found party officials had committed acts of "<a fr-original-style="" href="https://apnews.com/article/united-kingdom-government-jeremy-corbyn-387f693198bc574489b57ec57464130f" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">harassment and discrimination</a>" against Jewish people.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">The response: Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn condemned Starmer's decision to bar him from standing for the party at the next general election, calling it a "flagrant attack" on democracy. Corbyn said it was up to local party members to choose their candidate, not Labour leaders.</li></ul>

Aposto World

Just a few months ago, the AKP government, led by President Erdoğan, could not find concrete solutions to the economic crisis in Turkey and take any action to improve the living conditions of its citizens. It was challenging to convince the public of its growth-oriented economic model based on low-interest rates. Although different polling companies reported different percentages, they all showed a growing group of undecided voters who were breaking away from the government.In this period, the opposition, which had the psychological vantage in politics, was announcing principled positions through six-party meetings. The opposition's collaboration was exalting the society. CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was striking the agenda with the corruption-related videos he posted on social media in the middle of the night. Although Kılıçdaroğlu's economic promises, which resonated with the public, were implemented by the government, Kılıçdaroğlu was taking the credit.İYİ Party leader Meral Akşener was highlighting the vital problems of citizens with her visits to shopkeepers and setting the agenda with her speeches at group meetings. The rallies organised by the CHP and the İYİ Party, as well as the DEVA Party, brought together masses in different Anatolian cities demanding a change of government and boosted the morale of those in favour of a change. In the eyes of the society and international public, it was almost certain that the government would change in the 2023 elections, and there were even warnings to the opposition not to get complacent.The change in the government's position and the return of swing votersPresident Erdoğan shifted for the first time from the position of a leader who denied hardship in June to a leader who acknowledged the problems and took steps to solve them. In this period, which started with an interim increase in the minimum wage, steps such as increasing social benefits and starting a social housing project were taken. The EYT (retirement age victims) regulation and ‘salary increases that will not crush the inflation’ were promised.Opinion polls do not show that opposition voters are turning toward the government, but they do show that swing voters who broke away from the AKP have started to turn toward the AKP again. In June 2022, a Metropoll Research poll showed that 55% of voters who voted for the AKP in the last election thought that the economy was poorly managed. The percentage of AKP voters who said ‘the economy is being managed well’ was 42.1%. The same poll shows that only three months later, in September 2022, the percentage of AKP voters who were satisfied with the management of the economy rose to 68.7%, while the percentage of those who were not dropped to 27.3%.Meanwhile, the opposition, which had been on the rise for a long time, seems to have entered a period of stagnation.The six-party alliance appears to be stagnatingThe six parties that have agreed on a transition to a strengthened parliamentary system have repeatedly expressed their intention to field a joint candidate, but have not named one. The opposition, which has voiced the problematic aspects of the system and prepared an alternative model, has not clarified how the country will be governed under the new system. Under the current system, the president, who will be elected as the head of the executive, is the key to how the country will be governed, but there is no candidate; therefore, no governing program. There are no common and definite policies on foreign policy, social policies, or economic management, only statements of principled consensus.The fact that there is no consensus on a candidate just months before the election, and that the parties are sending implicit or explicitly harsh messages to one another, may raise questions about the opposition's capacity to jointly govern the country, especially among the decisive group of voters characterised as swing voters. There is uncertainty about what Turkey would look like if the opposition wins the elections. It is difficult to convince people who are not already convinced of change to accept a risky and uncertain change.The İYİ Party climbed up in the polls for a long time and moved to the centre-right. However, to maintain its claim to govern, it needs to reach out to new voter groups. The DEVA Party, the Gelecek (Future) Party, the Saadet (Felicity) Party, and the Democrat Party are not yet getting as many votes from the ruling electorate as they target.The CHP, which has made a meaningful effort to break the ice with conservatives with Kılıçdaroğlu's halalisation policy, has not yet achieved its goal of becoming the first party. While the disinformation law, which was interpreted as an attempt to silence the social opposition before the last elections, was passed by the Turkish Grand National Assembly, Kılıçdaroğlu met with scientists and students in the US instead of making a speech from the rostrum of the Turkish Grand National Assembly, leading to comments that the CHP is way off beam. While it would be possible to reach the increasingly impoverished people with social democratic promises from a class perspective, Kılıçdaroğlu is stuck in identity politics with promises such as legal guarantees for headscarves. He is competing with the government on identity. Despite his theoretical criticism of neoliberalism, he has yet to make the CHP the first party in the provinces and shantytowns.Kılıçdaroğlu also shows that he does not ignore these critiques with his message ‘Wait for November. Wait for Mr. Kemal.’ And explains in detail why he was in the US while the disinformation law was being discussed in the Turkish Grand National Assembly, Kılıçdaroğlu shows that he does not ignore these critiques.A joint candidate may already be announcedIf the six-party alliance wants to turn the wind back in its favour, it can try to announce a common name as a candidate and a common governance program with a big campaign. If all six parties can be seen to be united around both the candidate and the program, it may be possible to talk about a tangible change for people.A joint communication strategy can already send clear and strong messages to all segments of the society on economy, security, freedoms, and foreign policy. If the opposition is serious about nominating a common candidate and governing the country together, it should be able to remove the question marks in the minds of the public about the change.However, time is being wasted with principled position papers and confusing messages against an opponent with a clear name and program. The MHP's use of the slogan ‘The right candidate is clear, the decision is clear’ in its Anatolian rallies shows that the People's Alliance (Millet İttifakı) will try to consolidate its voters with the argument that the opposition will bring uncertainty. &nbsp;According to the results of the research conducted by Yöneylem, the most common answer to the question ‘Which party can solve Turkey's problems?’ is ‘none’ with 36%. In other words, society oscillates between despair and conviction.As Bekir Ağırdır writes, ‘Most of the society is waiting for the opposition, they want to hear a voice, a word, but we will see if the opposition wants to listen to a new voice, a new word first, and then establish a new voice.’

Spektrum

The opposition, which has recently lost the psychological vantage, can convince the society to change with a joint program.

Joint candidate, joint program, right now

Opinion pollsAccording to the Metropoll Research survey, the rate of those who approve of President Erdoğan's performance increased by 5 points compared to the previous month and reached 46.6%. The rate of those who disapprove of Erdoğan's performance in office decreased to 48.5%.&nbsp;Vote rates: Metropoll's poll showed that the AKP received 29% of the votes, CHP 21.4%, HDP 12%, İYİ Party 10.5%, MHP 7.9%, while 8% of the voters are still undecided.&nbsp;Vote transitivity: 72.5% of those who voted for the AKP in 2018 remained with their party, 4.3% switched to the MHP and 8.2% remained undecided. While 82.3% of CHP voters sticked with their party, 3.4% switched to İYİ Party and 5.1% remained undecided. It was observed that 8.2% of those who voted for MHP in the last election switched to İYİ Party, while 15.4% were undecided. Among those who voted for the Saadet (Felicity) Party in the last election, 36% preferred CHP, and 12% preferred AK Party.&nbsp;&nbsp;According to the Turkey Report, 20% of the respondents found the decision to cancel festivals in recent months to be correct. The rate of those who argued that the cancellations amounted to ‘interference in lifestyle’ was 51%. Another 29% of the respondents stated that they had no opinion on the issue.&nbsp;

<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Opinion Polls</h3>The Turkey Report's research showed that the segments of society perceived to be the freest in terms of expressing their opinions are those who support the government (66%), those in high-income groups (63%), and religious conservatives (51%).&nbsp;Those who are not free According to the survey, 60% of the society think that low-income groups, 42% of the opposition, and 36% of the secular/moderns cannot express their opinions freely.&nbsp;In the survey conducted by Metropoll Research, 51.5% of the respondents answered "yes" to the question "Do you think the ongoing tension between Greece and Turkey is an attempt to create an agenda for the elections?". The rate of those who think that the tension is not an effort to create an election agenda was 26.2%, the rate of those who said "I don't know" was 18.6%, and the rate of those who said "I have no idea" was 3.7%.&nbsp;Distribution according to parties: The majority of CHP, İYİ Party, HDP, Felicity Party, DEVA Party voters, and hesitant voters said that the tension was "an effort to create an agenda for the elections."&nbsp;"There is no hostility": To the question "Do you think there is hostility between the people of Greece and our people?" 31% of the respondents answered "yes" and 64% answered "no." Only a majority of Saadet Party voters stated that there is hostility between the two peoples.&nbsp;Metropoll Research's survey showed that the rate of hesitant voters, which was on a downward trend, decreased to 13.7%. Without distributing the undecided voters, AK Party has 28.7%, CHP 20%, İYİ Party 11.9%, HDP 11.5%, MHP 6.1%, DEVA Party 2.7% and Zafer Party 2.2%.&nbsp;Those whose votes increased: While the rate of hesitant voters has decreased in the recent period, AK Party, HDP, MHP, DEVA Party, and Zafer Party were found to have increased their votes.&nbsp;Political preference of Kurds: 51.7% of the voters who participated in the survey and stated that they are of Kurdish origin preferred HDP. The rate of hesitant voters among Kurds was 15.6%, while CHP and AK Party had 12.8% and 10.9% support, respectively.&nbsp;On the other hand:&nbsp;In the survey conducted by the Yöneylem Social Research Center, 35.3% of the respondents answered "Erdoğan in any case" and 21.3% answered "the opposition candidate in any case" to the question "Who will win the presidential election, regardless of your preference?". The rate of those who said that the opposition would win if the "right candidate" is nominated was 43.3%.&nbsp;&nbsp;In Aksoy Research's survey, 81.4% of the respondents stated that they had debts, while 18.6% said they had no debts. Among those who have debts, 78% stated that they had difficulty or had great difficulty in paying these debts.&nbsp;What will happen if the government changes? The rate of those who think that they will have even more difficulty in paying their debts if the government changes were 15.9%, while this rate rose to 29.2% even among AK Party voters. The rate of those who said, "If the government changes, I will be able to pay my debts more easily" was 42.9%.&nbsp;

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/u-k-tory-accuses-johnson-s-team-of-blackmailing-rebel-mps" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Members of UK PM Boris Johnson's Conservative Party</a> have accused the government of "blackmailing", intimidating and threatening lawmakers who voiced support for the leader's resignation.<blockquote fr-original-style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(255, 225, 68); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px;" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(255, 225, 68); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px; margin: 0px 0px 1em; border-left-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box;">"I have seen no evidence [and] heard no evidence." – Boris Johnson</blockquote><ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">The backstory: Johnson has been under fire for the past couple of weeks after reports emerged of him having attended a lockdown party, with one of his party members telling him to "In the name of God, go," but the PM has said that he intends on leading his party in the next elections.</li></ul>

Party ile ilgili hikayeler