Dünyanın önde gelen yayınlarından başka makaleler için yayınlarımızı keşfedebilirsiniz:💹&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/n/finans" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Finans</a>&nbsp;yayınımızda Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs Asset Management'ın eski başkanı, İngiltere'nin eski hazine bakanlarından Jim O'Neill; Uluslararası Çevre Hukuku Merkezi İklim ve Enerji Programı Direktör Yardımcısı Lili Fuhr; Harvard Kennedy School'da Uluslararası Politik Ekonomi Profesörü Dani Rodrik&nbsp;gibi isimleri ağırladık.🌍&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/n/politika" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Politika</a>&nbsp;köşemizde Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center'da Orta Doğu Girişimi'nin ortağı olan Djavad Salehi-Isfahani; Yale Üniversitesi Felsefe Profesörü ve&nbsp;How Fascism Works: The Politics of Us and Them kitabının yazarı Jason Stanley; Sağlık ve Çevre Adalet Desteği Eş Direktörleri Olga Speranskaya ve Alexandra Caterbow'un İran'dan Elon Musk'a uzanan düşünce yazılarını yayımladık.💰&nbsp;<a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/n/is-dunyasi" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">İş Dünyası</a>&nbsp;köşemizde, eski Dünya Bankası baş ekonomisti ve Uluslararası Para Fonu'nun eski birinci genel müdür yardımcısı Prof. Dr. Anne O. Krueger; The Economist’in eski genel yayın yönetmeni ve Küresel Pandemi Sonrası Politika Komisyonu eş direktörü Bill Emmott; Yale Üniversitesi öğretim üyesi ve Morgan Stanley Asya'nın eski başkanı Stephen S. Roach, değerlendirmeler yaptı.⚽ <a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/n/spor" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Spor</a>&nbsp;köşemizde Princeton Üniversitesi'nde profesör olan ödüllü Filistinli gazeteci Daoud Kuttab'ın Dünya Kupası üzerinden kültürel ve politik analizini okuduk.

Aposto Playground

Yazan: Bill EmmottLONDRA - Şirketler uzun zamandır "kilit kişi riskini" yönetmek, hatta üst düzey yöneticilerini ölüm, hastalık veya yaralanma yoluyla kaybetme olasılığına karşı sigorta yaptırmak zorunda. Ancak kripto borsası FTX'in <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/dramatic-collapse-of-the-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-contains-lessons-for-investors-but-wont-affect-most-people-194692" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">çöküşü</a>, Meta'nın <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/27/1131705422/facebook-meta-earnings-stock-price-fall-metaverse" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">düşen</a> hisse fiyatı ve Elon Musk tarafından devralınmasının ardından Twitter'da yaşanan <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/how-elon-musk-s-twitter-twtr-takeover-turned-into-chaos-quicktake" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">kaos</a>, "kilit kişilerin" çok daha farklı bir tehlike oluşturabileceğini gösteriyor. Buna "Napolyon kurucu" riski diyelim. Belki de yatırımcılar ve kredi verenler, yıldız bir girişimcinin bir gün benmerkezci bir diktatöre dönüşmesi ve bu yolda para yakması riskini karşılamak için bir prim talep etmeliler.Tabii, bu yeni bir risk değil. İş dünyası tarihi, şirket fonlarını kötüye kullanan yöneticiler ve olgun, halka açık şirketlerin kendi oyuncakları olmadığını fark edemeyen başarılı girişimcilerle dolu. Ancak her iş döngüsünde, eski derslerin yeniden öğrenilmesi gerekiyor gibi görünüyor.Bu yüzyılın başında yaşanan dot-com çöküşünün ardından, ünlü ABD’li yatırımcı Warren Buffett, "Kimin çıplak yüzdüğünü ancak sular çekildiğinde anlarsınız." şeklinde bir <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">esprili bir yorum</a> yapmıştı. Modern iş döngüsü işte böyledir: İyimserlikten kötümserliğe ve yükselişten çöküşe doğru sonsuza kadar akar. Yine de Buffett, iyimser gelgitlerin önlem alınması gereken anlar olduğunu da eklemiş olabilir. Çıplak gerçekle yüzleştiğinizde, paranız çoktan gitmiş olabilir.Bu durum Sam Bankman-Fried ve bu yılın başlarında 32 milyar dolar değer biçilen FTX için de <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/11/17/the-failure-of-ftx-and-sam-bankman-fried-will-leave-deep-scars" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">geçerliydi</a>. Çok az kişi şirketin çöküşünden para kaybedenlerle aynı acıyı paylaşacaktır. Bankman-Fried'in olgun bir kripto versiyonu sunma iddiasına rağmen, ilgili herkes bunun bir kumar olduğunu bilmeliydi. Bankman-Fried'in <a fr-original-style="" href="https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/11/22/sbf-ftx-bahamas-house-lifestyle/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">savurgan yaşam tarzına</a> dikkat eden herkes onun bir Buffett olmadığını görmeliydi.Yatırımcıların bu tür vurgunculara karşı önlem alması elbette zor. FTX gibi bir şirketi destekleyenler, büyük ödül potansiyeli olan yüksek riskli bahisler arıyor. Yine de akıllı bir yatırımcı, bir vurguncunun adeta bir korsana dönüştüğüne dair işaretleri tespit edebilmeli. Bankman-Fried ile ilgili ipuçları ise her yerdeydi: Şirketini Bahamalar'daki bir çatı katından birkaç yakın arkadaşıyla birlikte <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/14/sam-bankman-fried-bahamas-penthouse-ftx-crypto" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">yönetiyordu.</a>Aynı şekilde, eski Birleşik Krallık Başbakanı <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/david-cameron-1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">David Cameron</a> da Greensill Capital'daki yüksek ücretli danışmanlık pozisyonunda bir şeylerin <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/28/business/greensill-capital-collapse.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">ters gittiğini</a>, şirket 2021'de iflas etmeden çok önce görmüş olmalıydı. Her şeyden önce, şirketin Avustralyalı vurguncu kurucusu Lex Greensill'in, hepsi şirket hesabında tutulan <a fr-original-style="" href="https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/is-billionaire-lex-greensill-building-an-airline" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">dört özel jetle</a> ne işi vardı ki?Yatırım tamamen bilinmeyen bir gelecek üzerine bahis oynamakla ilgili olduğundan, güven, itimat ve satıcılık oyunun büyük bir parçası. Yatırımcılar görünürde iş planlarını destekliyor olsalar da, bu plana olan inançları genellikle bir kişiye olan inançlarına bağlı. Theranos'un dolandırıcılık suçundan <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63685131" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">hapis cezası alan</a> kurucusu Elizabeth Holmes, firmasının tanı testi endüstrisinde devrim yaratacak bir teknoloji geliştirebileceğine inanmış ya da inanmamış olabilir. Ancak önemli olan, yatırımcıları mucizevi vizyonunun yeterli parayla gerçekleşebileceğine ikna edebilmesiydi.Dolandırıcılık veya hayalperest düşüncelerden kaynaklanan kayıplara karşı temel savunma geniş bir portföydür. Tüm risk sermayesi endüstrisi, yeterince dişli start-up’lar üzerine bahis oynarsanız, nadir başarı hikâyelerinden elde edilen kazançların, tüm fiyaskolardan ve sahtekârlardan kaynaklanan kayıplardan çok daha ağır basacağı fikrine dayanır. Ultra ucuz sermayenin uzun dönemi boyunca- teknoloji firmalarına sunulan potansiyel küresel pazarlarla birlikte - satış konuşmaları daha çekici ve bahisler çok daha büyük hâle geldi. Ancak temel ilkeler her zaman aynı olmuştur.Meta'nın Mark Zuckerberg'i ya da Twitter'ın Elon Musk'ı gibi savaşta katılaşmış süperstar girişimciler söz konusu olduğunda meselenin içinden çıkmak daha zor bir hâle gelliyor. Son yirmi yılda kendilerini kanıtlamış olan bu kişiler, artık start-up kurucularından çok kıdemli CEO'lara benziyorlar. Yine de Napolyon Bonapart'ın 1812'de Rusya'nın felaketle sonuçlanan işgalini başlattığında da siyasi ve askerî bir gazi olduğunu hatırlamakta fayda var.Başarı başarı üzerine eklendikçe, milyarlar biriktikçe ve imparatorluklar büyüdükçe iki şey gerçekleşir. Birincisi, iş -ya da Musk'ın durumunda iş imparatorluğu- profesyonel yöneticilere, resmî yapılara ve denge mekanizmasına ihtiyaç duyacak kadar büyük ve karmaşık hâle gelir. Ancak ikinci olarak, sıfırdan milyarlarca dolarlık şirketler kuranlar genellikle bir hak ve dokunulmazlık duygusu sergilemeye başlarlar ve sanki tüm bu durum sadece vizyonlarını engellemiş gibi davranırlar.Uzun yıllar süren ucuz sermaye -ve görünürdeki sürekli yükseliş- bu eğilimi gizledi. Güzel zamanlar o kadar uzun sürdü ki, birçok yatırımcı temel bilgileri unuttu; yeni sektörlerde istihdam yaratıldığını ve büyüme sağlandığını görmekten mutlu olan politikacılar ise, kampanya bağışlarının ana kaynağı hâline gelen teknoloji milyarderlerine karşı fazla hoşgörülü davrandılar.Meta bunun tam bir örneği. Şirketin hisselerini elinde bulunduran herkes, şirketin <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-control-facebook-whistleblower-key-man-risk-2021-10?r=US&IR=T" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">çift sınıflı hisse yapısının</a> risklerinin farkında olmalıydı. Zuckerberg tüm hisselerin yalnızca %13'üne sahip olmasına rağmen, oy hakkına sahip hisselerin yaklaşık %55'ine sahip ve bu nedenle şirketin karar alma sürecinde tam yetkiye sahip.Güzel zamanlarda, Alphabet (Google) gibi diğer teknoloji firmaları tarafından paylaşılan bu yapı mantıklı görünmüş olabilir. Ancak Meta'nın hisse fiyatının geçtiğimiz yıl <a fr-original-style="" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">dörtte üç oranında</a> düşmesi ve Zuckerberg'ün sanal gerçeklik deneyimi (metaverse) yaratmak için milyarlarca dolar yatırım yaparak <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f4c676c-56a6-4b5e-850f-ddb78f9feb40" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">şirketle adeta bahis oynamasıyla</a> birlikte yatırımcılar, suçlanacak tek taraf kendileri olsa da ayaklanmış durumda.Musk ya da ona kredi verenler ve yatırımcılar bu dersi dikkate alacak mı? Musk'ın Twitter'da şu ana kadar sergilediği davranışlar, ilgili herkesin pahalı bir eğitimden geçeceğini gösteriyor. &nbsp; Şirket, çalışanlarının <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/elon-musks-rapid-changes-twitter-raise-legal-concerns-experts-say-rcna57549" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">yarısını işten çıkardı</a> ve bu süreçte muhtemelen istihdam yasalarını ihlal etti. Şimdi Twitter'ı 44 milyar dolarlık satın alma fiyatını haklı çıkaracak kadar kârlı hâle getirmenin bir yolunu bulması gerekiyor. Bu zorlu bir iş. Twitter'a gösterilen genel ilgi artmış olsa da, platformun ana gelir kaynağı olan birçok üst düzey reklam veren, kampanyalarını <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2022/11/22/advertisers-hit-the-pause-button-with-twitter/?sh=2862ad7939f6" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">askıya almış</a> durumda.Napolyon, Moskova'dan geri çekildikten sonra bazıları üstün beceriyle olmak üzere daha fazla savaşa girdi, ancak yenilmezlik konusundaki ünü asla geri gelmedi. Çıplak bir imparatoru kimse görmezden gelemez.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Bill Emmott, The Economist’in eski genel yayın yönetmeni ve Küresel Pandemi Sonrası Politika Komisyonu eş direktörü.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Telif hakkı: Project Syndicate, 2022.<a fr-original-style="" href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a><hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Not: Bu makalede yer alan tüm görüşler yazarlara ait olup, Aposto'nun editoryal bakış açısını yansıtmamaktadır.

Yatırımcılar ve kredi verenler, yıldız bir girişimcinin bir gün benmerkezci bir diktatöre dönüşmesi ve bu yolda para yakması riskini karşılamak için bir prim talep etmeliler.

Big Tech’in Napolyonları 

<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Aposto Tech&nbsp;gathers the best articles on technology at Aposto, curated by our editors.</h3><hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">The Napoleons of Big TechBy Bill EmmottLONDON – Companies have long had to manage “key person risk,” even taking out insurance against the possibility of losing top executives through death, illness, or injury. But the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://link.apos.to/c/F8yc4sgdbne1?c=uvuGM3S7x8n52p4A1Lo-X&sub=62b033905d379200061d8935&s=web" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">collapse</a> of the crypto exchange FTX, Meta’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://link.apos.to/c/Hao8V3rvj-5W?c=uvuGM3S7x8n52p4A1Lo-X&sub=62b033905d379200061d8935&s=web" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">plummeting</a> share price, and the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://link.apos.to/c/UYmTFlRCeqb2?c=uvuGM3S7x8n52p4A1Lo-X&sub=62b033905d379200061d8935&s=web" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">chaos</a> at Twitter following its takeover by Elon Musk suggest that “key people” can pose a very different kind of danger. Call it “Napoleonic founder” risk. Perhaps investors and lenders should be demanding a premium to cover the risk that a star entrepreneur will one day become an egomaniacal dictator, burning money along the way.The risk is not new, of course. Business history is full of executives going rogue with corporate funds, and of successful entrepreneurs failing to realize that mature, publicly traded companies are not their personal playthings. But with each business cycle, it seems, old lessons must be relearned.Following the dot-com crash at the turn of this century, the storied American investor Warren Buffett famously <a fr-original-style="" href="https://link.apos.to/c/_6jIEc516Uy4?c=uvuGM3S7x8n52p4A1Lo-X&sub=62b033905d379200061d8935&s=web" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">quipped</a> that “you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” Such is the modern business cycle: it flows eternally from optimism to pessimism, and from boom to bust. Yet Buffett might have added that the optimistic high tides are the moments when precautions must be put in place. Once you have been confronted with the naked truth, your money may already have been lost.<p contenteditable="false" fr-original-class="custom-button-wrapper fr-deletable" fr-original-style="text-align:center" style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><a bgcolor="#effe75" color="#090909" contenteditable="false" fr-original-class="custom-button-link" fr-original-style="background-color:#effe75 !important;color:#090909 !important" href="https://aposto.com/i/the-napoleons-of-big-tech" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: rgb(239, 254, 117) !important; color: rgb(9, 9, 9) !important; text-decoration: none; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Read more</a><p contenteditable="false" fr-original-class="custom-button-wrapper fr-deletable" fr-original-style="text-align:center" style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><a bgcolor="#effe75" color="#090909" contenteditable="false" fr-original-class="custom-button-link" fr-original-style="background-color:#effe75 !important;color:#090909 !important" href="https://aposto.com/n/aposto-tech" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: rgb(239, 254, 117) !important; color: rgb(9, 9, 9) !important; text-decoration: none; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Subscribe</a>

Aposto Digest

By Bill Emmott&nbsp;LONDON – Companies have long had to manage “key person risk,” even taking out insurance against the possibility of losing top executives through death, illness, or injury. But the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/dramatic-collapse-of-the-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-contains-lessons-for-investors-but-wont-affect-most-people-194692" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">collapse</a> of the crypto exchange FTX, Meta’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/27/1131705422/facebook-meta-earnings-stock-price-fall-metaverse" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">plummeting</a> share price, and the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/how-elon-musk-s-twitter-twtr-takeover-turned-into-chaos-quicktake" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">chaos</a> at Twitter following its takeover by Elon Musk suggest that “key people” can pose a very different kind of danger. Call it “Napoleonic founder” risk. Perhaps investors and lenders should be demanding a premium to cover the risk that a star entrepreneur will one day become an egomaniacal dictator, burning money along the way.The risk is not new, of course. Business history is full of executives going rogue with corporate funds, and of successful entrepreneurs failing to realize that mature, publicly traded companies are not their personal playthings. But with each business cycle, it seems, old lessons must be relearned.Following the dot-com crash at the turn of this century, the storied American investor Warren Buffett famously <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">quipped</a> that “you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” Such is the modern business cycle: it flows eternally from optimism to pessimism, and from boom to bust. Yet Buffett might have added that the optimistic high tides are the moments when precautions must be put in place. Once you have been confronted with the naked truth, your money may already have been lost.This was <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/11/17/the-failure-of-ftx-and-sam-bankman-fried-will-leave-deep-scars" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">certainly true</a> in the case of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX, which was valued at as much as $32 billion earlier this year. Few will sympathize with those who have lost money from the company’s collapse. Notwithstanding Bankman-Fried’s pretense of offering a mature version of crypto, everyone involved should have known it was a casino. And anyone who was paying attention to Bankman-Fried’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/11/22/sbf-ftx-bahamas-house-lifestyle/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">extravagant lifestyle</a> should have seen that he was no Buffett.To be sure, it is difficult for investors to take precautions against such buccaneers. Those who back a company like FTX are looking for high-risk bets with the potential for massive rewards. Still, the smart investor ought to be able to detect signs that a buccaneer is becoming something closer to a pirate. With Bankman-Fried, the clues were everywhere: he was <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/14/sam-bankman-fried-bahamas-penthouse-ftx-crypto" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">running the company</a> with a few close friends from a penthouse in the Bahamas.Likewise, former British Prime Minister <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/david-cameron-1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">David Cameron</a> should have seen that something was awry with his highly remunerated advisory role at Greensill Capital well before the firm <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/28/business/greensill-capital-collapse.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">went bust</a> in 2021. What, after all, was the firm’s Australian buccaneer-founder, Lex Greensill, doing with <a fr-original-style="" href="https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/is-billionaire-lex-greensill-building-an-airline" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">four private jets</a>, all maintained on the company’s tab?Since investment is all about making bets on an unknowable future, confidence, trust, and salesmanship are a big part of the game. While investors are nominally backing business plans, their belief in that plan often depends on their belief in a person. The founder of Theranos, Elizabeth Holmes, who has just been <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63685131" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">sentenced to prison</a> for fraud, may or may not have believed that her firm could develop a technology to revolutionize the diagnostic-testing industry. But what mattered was her ability to convince investors that, with enough money, her miraculous vision could come true.A diversified portfolio is the main defense against losses from fraud or delusional thinking. The entire venture-capital industry rests on the idea that if you bet on enough ambitious start-ups, the gains from the rare success stories will far outweigh the losses from all the duds and rogues. During the long era of ultra-cheap capital – combined with the potentially global markets available to technology firms – the sales pitches became more seductive, and the bets much larger. But the basic principles have always been the same.With battle-hardened superstar entrepreneurs like Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg or Twitter’s Elon Musk, the issue is more complex. Having proven themselves over the past two decades, they are now more like veteran CEOs than start-up founders. Yet it is worth remembering that Napoleon Bonaparte also was a political and military veteran when he launched his disastrous invasion of Russia in 1812.As success builds on success, and as the billions accumulate and the empires grow larger, two things happen. First, the business – or, in Musk’s case, the business empire – becomes so large and complex that it needs professional managers, formal structures, and plenty of checks and balances. But, second, those who build multi-billion-dollar companies from the ground up often come to exhibit a sense of entitlement and impunity, behaving as though all this scaffolding merely obstructed their vision.The many years of cheap capital – a seemingly permanent high tide – obscured this tendency. The good times went on for so long that many investors forgot the basics, while politicians, happy to see job creation and growth in new industries, became far too indulgent toward tech billionaires, who often became major sources of campaign donations.Meta is a case in point. Anyone holding the company’s stock should have recognized the risks associated with the company’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-control-facebook-whistleblower-key-man-risk-2021-10?r=US&IR=T" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">dual-class share structure</a>. Although Zuckerberg holds only 13% of all shares, he owns around 55% of voting shares, and thus enjoys carte blanche in the company’s decision-making.In the good times, this structure – shared by other tech firms, such as Alphabet (Google) – may have seemed to make sense. But with Meta’s share price having fallen by <a fr-original-style="" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">three-quarters</a> over the past year, and with Zuckerberg <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f4c676c-56a6-4b5e-850f-ddb78f9feb40" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">betting the company</a> by investing billions in creating a virtual-reality experience (the metaverse), investors are up in arms, even though they have only themselves to blame.Will Musk – or his lenders and investors – heed this lesson? Musk’s behavior at Twitter so far suggests that everyone involved is in for a costly education. He has already <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/elon-musks-rapid-changes-twitter-raise-legal-concerns-experts-say-rcna57549" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">sacked half the company’s staff</a>, possibly breaking employment laws in the process. He now must come up with a way to make Twitter profitable enough to justify the $44 billion purchase price. That is a tall order. While the overall attention paid to Twitter may have increased, many top advertisers – the platform’s main revenue source – have already <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2022/11/22/advertisers-hit-the-pause-button-with-twitter/?sh=2862ad7939f6" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">suspended</a> their campaigns.Napoleon fought more battles after his retreat from Moscow, some with great skill, but his reputation for invincibility never recovered. No one can unsee a naked emperor.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Bill Emmott, a former editor-in-chief of&nbsp;The Economist, is Co-Director of the Global Commission for Post-Pandemic Policy.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022. <a fr-original-style="" href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a>&nbsp;

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