• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/10/31/vladimir-putin-hosts-leaders-of-armenia-and-azerbaijan-for-talks-in-sochi" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Russia's President Vladimir Putin</a> hosted leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Sochi to help broker an agreement after recent violent armed clashes broke out in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a decades-old conflict the two countries have been locked in. Armenia's PM Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev agreed "not to use force" to settle their disputes, they said in a joint statement.

Aposto World

<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/9/0/1667149854367.png" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.98" width="550" alt="Markets Recap" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">Year-to-date price changes. Prices at markets close.• This will be another busy week as the FOMC announces probably the last of its 75bps rate hikes before the Fed will downshift tightening, with BOE, RBA and Norges Bank following suit. It's also PMI and PPI week for the eurozone after today's CPI data, which remains the ECB’s number one priority.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Monday Putin to meet the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Sochi; OPEC to launch its 2022 World Oil Outlook at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference; Eurozone CPI, GDP; Poland CPI; US Chicago PMI; China NBS PMI.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday General election in Denmark; Web Summit conference; Global manufacturing PMIs; Czechia GDP; Australia rate decision.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wednesday Eurozone manufacturing PMIs; Germany trade balance, unemployment; US FOMC Interest Rate Decision; EIA crude oil inventory report.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Thursday G-7 foreign ministers to meet in Germany; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to visit China; Eurozone unemployment; UK BOE, Norway rate decision; US trade balance; Italy, Spain unemployment; Global services PMIs.&nbsp;</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Friday Eurozone services PMIs, PPI; Germany factory orders; France, Spain industrial production; US non-farm payrolls.</li></ul>

President Erdoğan, whose room for maneuver in domestic politics has shrunk due to the worsening economic crisis, social anger fuelled by illegal immigrants, falling approval ratings, and the opposition's seizure of the initiative to set the political agenda, is trying to write a success story in foreign policy by using the diplomatic advantages created for him by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Erdoğan, who is also well aware of the effect of the heroism rhetoric and relative successes in foreign policy on the partial increase in his vote rates, is endeavoring to sustain the wind of support created by diplomatic moves such as Sweden-Finland's NATO membership, the mediation attempts between Ukraine and Russia and the grain deal last month until the 2023 elections.Metropoll Research's June-July "President Erdoğan's job approval" surveys obviously show that foreign policy tensions and illusions of success have increased support for Erdoğan.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The very important Sochi meeting</h2>On 5 August, President Erdoğan met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, aiming both to find an external source that could provide short-term relief to the economic crisis and to obtain approval for an operation in Syria that would trigger national sentiments before the elections. The joint statement issued after the 4-hour-long bilateral meeting included the following expression:"The leaders, who held comprehensive consultations on the agenda of Turkey-Russia bilateral relations, agreed on increasing the trade volume between the two countries in line with the determined targets and on a balanced basis, meeting the expectations of the two countries from each other in the fields of economy and energy within the framework of reciprocity, and taking concrete steps to strengthen cooperation on issues that have long been on the agenda of the two countries in sectors such as transport, trade, agriculture, industry, finance, tourism, and construction."It was expressed that the aim is to increase the bilateral trade volume to 100 billion dollars. &nbsp;And it was announced that a memorandum of understanding was signed by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak and Trade Minister Mehmet Muş at the point of reaching this target.Another significant outcome of the visit was that Turkey and Russia agreed to use local currencies in bilateral trade and natural gas payments. The idea of using local currencies in Turkey-Russia trade as a reaction to the hegemony of the US dollar due to the increasing influence of the Eurasianist bloc in Turkish politics, the closer Turkey-Russia relations through the personal relationship between Erdogan and Putin, and the breakdown in relations with the US had been voiced by both leaders for some time. However, &nbsp;the currency crisis in Turkey and Russia's pressure to use roubles in energy imports due to the sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine paved the way for concrete steps to be taken in this regard. Considering that Turkey's trade deficit with Russia is $33 billion in favor of Russia due to energy imports, it is obvious that Russia has benefited from this agreement.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Closer trade relations with Russia and the West's reaction</h2>From Turkey's point of view, the decision to make payments in roubles is a plan to attract more tourists from Russia and to attract the Russian oligarchs' money to Turkey. When evaluated together with President Erdoğan's assertion that "5 banks have started infrastructure work on the activation of Russia's credit card system Mir in Turkey", it is seen that Russia intends to use Turkey as an exit door to circumvent Western sanctions.According to an article in the Financial Times, EU countries are closely monitoring Turkey-Russia relations and maybe call on Western companies to exit Turkey if Turkey helps Russia to circumvent sanctions. Since the beginning of the occupation, Turkey's denial to join the sanctions against Russia, blocking Sweden and Finland from joining NATO and deepening its relations with Russia, unlike other NATO member states, has led to a sharp questioning of its loyalty to NATO and the West.Given the damage done to US-Turkey relations by the alleged sanctions-busting on Iran and the ongoing Halkbank case, Turkey's role as an intermediary for Russia's sanctions-busting could cause an irreparable rupture in its relations with the West. Indeed, in a statement at the Sochi meeting, the US State Department urged Turkey not to become a haven for illicit Russian assets or transactions, saying: "We are carefully monitoring the data and so far there appears to be no evidence of illicit Russian money in Turkey."The decisions to use roubles for natural gas payments and to activate the Mir credit card system in Turkey can be seen as a relatively lucrative move for the Russian economy, which is struggling with sanctions, as well as for President Erdoğan, who is trying every way to create a short-term relief in the economy before the 2023 elections. Even before Erdogan traveled to Sochi, many experts were saying that this visit was aimed at finding foreign funding. The crisis conditions in the Turkish economy make Turkey vulnerable and open to manipulation in foreign policy as well as in domestic politics.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Seeking resources for the economic crisis&nbsp;</h2>In 2011, the AK Party government, which entered into an ideological war with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia as a result of the Arab Spring, suspended diplomatic and trade relations with the Gulf countries for nearly ten years and portrayed these countries as the financiers of the 15 July coup attempt. Erdoğan openly labeled Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a murderer after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, and with this stance, he was portrayed as a fair and strong leader in the ruling media. However, as the economic crisis, whose footsteps began to be heard in 2018, has spiraled out of control in the last year, the government's only solution to keep the economy afloat until the 2023 elections have become short-term foreign funding from Russia-China or Gulf countries. Therefore, all political disagreements and ideological fights were put aside, and the opening process with the Gulf countries started an era in which President Erdoğan sacrificed diplomatic principles to the need for foreign resources.During the meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Rosatom's $15 billion investment for the completion of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant was discussed. Aware that President Erdoğan's political career depends on the economic crisis in Turkey, Putin is using the investment issue as a trump card to keep Erdoğan in the political balance he wants. After the meeting, the transfer of 5 billion of the promised 15 billion dollars to Turkey can be read as a sign of goodwill.In his article published on T24, journalist Uğur Gürses states the following"The Central Bank's foreign exchange and gold reserves were $98.9 billion on 26 July, rising to $108.1 billion on 4 August, according to daily data. There is no doubt that much of this is 'Russian money' parked in the Central Bank indirectly through the banks."On 18 July, President Erdoğan failed to get the desired response from Iran and Russia on cross-border operation in Syria at the Astana Summit in Tehran and discussed this issue during his meeting with Putin in Sochi. Considering that the huge social anger caused by illegal immigrants and Syrian asylum seekers in domestic politics is one of the two most fundamental problems of the people along with the economic crisis, the repatriation of refugees, even if it is for the show before the 2023 elections, may stop the AK Party's loss of votes.&nbsp;Considering that every cross-border operation increases the support for the government, it seems that a cross-border operation is inevitable for the ruling party. Putin, who is aware that Erdoğan's room for maneuver on this issue is narrowing, is forcing Erdoğan to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Speaking to reporters on his return from Sochi, Erdoğan said, "Putin maintains a fair approach towards Turkey. He states that he will always be with us in the fight against terrorism. He is implying here; that 'It would be much more favorable if you prefer to solve them together with the regime as much as possible. We say that our intelligence organization is already working on these issues with Syrian intelligence, but the whole point is to get results." With these statements, he also confirmed that diplomatic contact has been established with Syria.The deepening economic crisis in Turkey is increasing vulnerabilities in foreign policy as well as in domestic politics, narrowing the government's room for maneuver. While Turkey's dependence on Russia for energy imports has already strengthened Russia's hand in bilateral relations, the need for foreign currency caused by the economic crisis leads to the disregard of other national interests in exchange for short-term resource inflows. Turkey, which has experienced a major breakdown in its relations with the US after the purchase of the S-400 air defense systems, is deepening its relations with Russia in the economic, political, and military fields, strengthening the impression that it has broken away from the Western alliance. Although Turkey's mediation role during the invasion of Ukraine and its leading role in the grain deal increased Turkey's geopolitical importance for NATO, making agreements with Russia to circumvent the sanctions imposed by Western countries, such as making natural gas payments in rubles and activating the Mir system in Turkey, could bring the frayed relations with NATO and the EU to a breaking point. At this point, although scenarios such as Turkey's expulsion from NATO do not seem realistic, we can say that a Turkey that is economically and politically excluded from the West and that has moved closer to the Russia-China axis will move further away from the ideal of being a democratic state of law.

Spektrum

Failure in domestic policy and pursuit of a diplomatic victory

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-06/turkish-banks-are-adopting-russian-payments-system-erdogan-says" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Five Turkish banks</a> have adopted Russia’s Mir payments system, and the two countries will start moving to partial payment in rubles for deliveries of natural gas, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on his return from talks with President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, adding the central bank governors of the two countries also met during the visit.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/7/0/1659907124395.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.51" width="550" alt="Erdogan and Putin" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">via Bloomberg<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">On a related note: Turkey’s official reserves rose the most since February, following <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-05/turkish-foreign-reserves-jump-after-russian-money-transfer" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">a cash injection by Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom</a> into a Turkish subsidiary. Turkey’s total gross reserves rose by around $3 billion through last week, with gold accounting for $1.6 billion of the increase and foreign exchange for the rest.</li></ul>

<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/6/0/1659285042660.png" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.98" width="550" alt="Markets Recap" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">Year-to-date price changes. Prices at markets close.• Central bank action continues this week, with both the RBA and the BOE expected to hike rates by 50bps following a 75bps rate hike by the FOMC last week. However, the attention could shift to the labor market and if the US would go into a "real recession" as the world's largest economy entered a "technical recession".<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Monday Tory members to start voting on the next UK PM; Global manufacturing PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, France, US ISM, UK, China Caixin; Eurozone, Italy unemployment.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday US Secretary of State Blinken to attend the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Cambodia, and visit the Philippines; Spain unemployment; UK house prices RBA rate decision.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wednesday Eurozone PPI, retail sales; Germany trade balance; Global services PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, UK, US ISM, Russia, China Caixin; Turkey, Switzerland CPI; OPEC+ meeting on output, EIA crude oil inventory report.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Thursday Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak to debate for UK Tory leadership; Eurozone ECB publishes its economic bulletin; US initial jobless claims; UK BOE, Hungary rate decision.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Friday Russian President Putin to meet with Turkish President Erdogan in Sochi, Russia; Germany, France, Italy, Spain industrial production; US unemployment.</li></ul>

Küresel ısınma en geç 20. yüzyılın son onyılından bu yana dünyanın önündeki en acil gündemlerden biri. Dünya sıcaklığındaki artış seviyesinin; deniz seviyelerinin yükselmesi, su sorunu ve yangınlar gibi sonuçlarla kendini göstermesi ve bunların yol açtığı göçler, gıda krizleri ve can kayıplarıyla birlikte iklim değişikliğini konuşmadığımız bir alan neredeyse kalmadı. Bu alanlardan, diğerlerine göre nispeten daha tali olan ancak gelinen noktayı çarpıcı bir şekilde gözler önüne seren biri ise spor. Kanada’daki Waterloo Üniversitesi tarafından yapılan bir araştırmaya göre, eğer karbon salınımları azaltılmazsa, dünyanın ısısındaki artış seviyesinin bu hızda ilerlemesiyle birlikte bu yüzyılın sonunda Kış Olimpiyatları’na ev sahipliği yapan 21 şehirden yalnızca Sapporo yeniden bu organizasyonu düzenleyebilecek.Buna göre, Kuzey Yarımküre’de kış mevsiminin niteliklerinin git gide değişmesi, 1924’te ilk Kış Olimpiyatları’na ev sahipliği yapan Chamonix, 1936 Kış Olimpiyatları’nın düzenlendiği Garmisch-Partenkirschen, 1960 Oyunları’nın ev sahibi Squaw Valley ve yalnızca sekiz yıl önce organizasyonun gerçekleştirildiği Sochi, halihazırda yükselen sıcaklık ve ıslak kar koşulları nedeniyle bir daha Kış Olimpiyatları’nı düzenleyemeyecek durumda. Bu yıl Kış Olimpiyatları’nın düzenlendiği Beijing ise düşük kar yağışı nedeniyle risk listesinde.Olimpiyat Oyunları’nın kendisinin de iklim krizi konusunda en önemli sorumlulardan biri olduğunu söylemek gerek. Oyunları kentsel rant ve ekonomik büyüme için bir itici güç olarak kullanan iktidarlar, bunun yarattığı yoksullaşma, emek sömürüsü ve yerinden edilme gibi sonuçların yanında ekolojik yıkımı ve doğal yaşamın tahribatını da geri dönüşü olmayan boyutlara taşıyor.Olimpiyat Oyunları, sorumlusu olduğu bu ekolojik tahribattan kaçınılmaz olarak kendisi de etkileniyor. 2010 Kış Olimpiyatları’nda Vancouver, o zamana dek kayıtlara geçen en sıcak kışlarından birini yaşadı ve kayak pistlerinin seviyesini yükseltmek için doğal ve yapay karın bir karışımıyla kaplanmış saman balyaları kullanmak zorunda kaldı. 2014 Sochi, kar sporları için tesisleri hazır edebilmek amacıyla önceki yıllarda yağan karları depoladı. Buz sporları içinse tesisleri soğutmak için kullanılan teknolojiler çevreye verilen zararı daha da artırıyor.En son 2015 ve 2021’de Paris ve Glasgow’da toplanan iki büyük uluslararası konferansın da aralarında olduğu çeşitli uluslararası arayışları tetikleyen bu krize henüz gerçek sorumluları hesap verebilir kılan bir çözüm bulunabilmiş değil. Çokuluslu şirketlerin ve küresel Kuzey’deki ülkelerin iklim krizindeki rolleri orantısında sorumluluk almaktan ve eyleme geçmekten kaçınan, üstüne üstlük çözümü bireysel sorumluluklara indirgeyen ve alt sınıflar ile gelişmekte olan ülkeleri kendileriyle eşit taahhütlere zorlayan tavrı da bunu güçleştiriyor. Bütün bunlarla birlikte yine bu aktörlerin zenginliğine zenginlik katan Olimpiyat Oyunları da bundan etkilenirken, ortaya çıkan zararı telafi etmekse iklim krizini derinleştiriyor. Oyunlar “sürdürülebirlik” ve “çevre dostu olmak” gibi gösterişli kavramları benimsese de sorunun kökenini hedef almayan bir çözüm yalnızca çözümsüzlüğü ilerletiyor.Ancak her ne kadar Olimpiyat hep egemen siyasetlerin hegemonya kurmak için araçsallaştırdığı bir organizasyon olsa da, buna direnişin de her zaman var olduğu bir mekan sunuyor. İklim krizi, küresel protestoların da gündeminde bir süredir üst sıralarda yer almakta. Kim bilir, belki yakın zamanda Kış Olimpiyatları da sermayenin yarattığı doğa yıkımına karşı insan merkezli olmayan, her anlamda eşitlikçi bir bakış açısıyla ortaya konulan bir karşı çıkışa sahne olur.

     

İKLİM KRİZİNİN GÖLGESİNDE OLİMPİYATLAR

Curling İskoçya’nın donmuş göllerinde ortaya çıkan bir spor. Genellikle İskoç takımların temsil ettiği Büyük Britanya ise curlingin Olimpiyat karnesinde Kanada ve İsveç’in arkasından üçüncü sırada yer alıyor. Erkeklerde de kadınlarda da birer altın madalyaya sahip olan Büyük Britanya’da erkeklerde ülkeyi -Beijing 2022 de dahil olmak üzere- son dört olimpiyatta üç farklı takım temsil ederken, kadınlarda ise daha istikrarlı bir tablo göze çarpıyor. Bu istikrarın bir ismi de var: Eve Muirhead.Üst üste dördüncü kez Olimpiyat’ta yer alacak olan Eve Muirhead 1990 yılında İskoçya’nın Perth kentinde dünyaya geldi. Babası Gordon Muirhead, curlingin bir gösteri sporu olduğu Albertville 1992 Kış Olimpiyatları’nda gümüş madalya kazanmış ve üç defa Dünya Şampiyonası ikincisi olmuştu. Bu, gayda çalmaya olan tutkusuyla İskoçluğuna da sıkı sıkıya bağlı olan Eve Muirhead’in de sporla tanışmasını kolaylaştırdı.Uluslararası arenaya ilk defa 2007 Dünya Gençler Şampiyonası ile çıkan Muirhead, Sarah Reid’in kaptanlığı yaptığı takımla birlikte altın madalya kazandı. 2008 ve 2009’da aynı turnuvayı bu sefer skip olarak kazanan Muirhead, BBC Scotland tarafından 2009’da ‘Yılın Genç Sporcusu’ seçildi. 2011’de de gençlerde dünya şampiyonu olan Eve Muirhead böylelikle dünya curling sahnesinde kalburüstü atletler arasında yerini aldı.Muirhead’in ilk Olimpiyat yolculuğu 2010’da Vancouver’daydı. Muirhead takımı dokuz maçta üç galibiyetle yarı finale yükselemedi ancak bir sonraki ay düzenlenen Dünya Şampiyonası’nda Eve Muirhead takımı İskoçya’yı finale taşıdı ve gümüş madalya kazandı.Eve Muirhead ilk büyük şampiyonluğunu 2011’de Avrupa Şampiyonu olarak kazandı. 2013’te ise finalde İsveç’i mağlup ederek İskoçya’yı Dünya Şampiyonluğuna taşıdı ve bu unvanı kazanan en genç skip oldu.2014’te Sochi’de düzenlenen Kış Olimpiyatları ise Eve Muirhead’e ilk -ve şimdilik tek- Olimpiyat madalyasını getirdi. Grup aşamasını dokuz maçta beş galibiyetle dördüncü tamamlayan Muirhead takımı, yarı finalde Jennifer Jones’un skipliğini yaptığı takımın temsil ettiği Kanada’ya mağlup oldu. Üçüncülük maçında İsviçre’yi son endde kazandığı bir sayıyla 6-5 mağlup eden Muirhead takımı bronz madalyanın sahibi oldu.2017’de tekrar Avrupa şampiyonu olan Eve Muirhead, PyeongChang 2018’de grupta yendiği Japonya’ya bronz madalya maçında mağlup olarak dördüncü oldu ve beklediğini bulamadı. Bu yıl tekrar Olimpiyat yolculuğuna hazırlanan Eve Muirhead takımı bir kez daha Avrupa şampiyonu unvanıyla yola çıkıyor. Bu kez dört yıl öncesine kıyasla daha öngörülemez bir rinkte taş kaydıracak olan Muirhead ve takımı, Büyük Britanya’nın kadınlarda yirmi yıl sonra ilk curling altın madalyasını getirmeye çalışacak.

Sochi ile ilgili hikayeler