By Jim O'NeillLONDON – Although it has been almost a decade since I gave up a full-time job in finance, markets – and market oddities – still fascinate me, especially when they send signals that run against a widely held consensus among analysts and investors. Given all the disappointments in 2022, the outlook for the new year is quite downbeat. Major corporations are announcing layoffs, and the International Monetary Fund is <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/business/imf-china-global-economy-recession-intl-hnk/index.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">forecasting</a> that at least one in three countries will experience a recession this year.The reasons for such pessimism are not hard to find. The big inflationary surprises of 2022 triggered a massive and rapid tightening of monetary policies in most major economies, and key central banks have continued to talk tough. Although the US Federal Reserve reduced the size of its interest-rate hikes from 75 basis points to 50 bps in December, it has <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/after-raising-interest-rates-again-federal-reserve-warns-more-hikes-likely-in-2023" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">made clear</a> that more rate hikes are likely – and that a rate cut is not in the cards for 2023. Making matters worse, many other problems, like Russia’s war in Ukraine, continue to simmer, threatening supply chains, markets, and economies around the world.At some point in my career, I was introduced to an old almanac that offered an endless array of heuristics about US stock markets’ past performance. One nugget that always stuck with me is the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stock-markets-2022-five-day-rule-by-jim-o-neill-2022-01" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">five-day rule</a>: If the S&amp;P 500 index makes a net gain during the first five trading days of the calendar year, equities will perform well for the year overall. When I asked my colleagues to check it for the 1950-2014 period, they found that it held true more than 80% of the time.Well, in the first five days of 2023, <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">the market rose</a> by just over 1%, which means there is over an 80% chance that it will be positive on the year – at least according to the five-day rule. But before you rush to buy your favorite stocks, let me add a few obvious caveats. First, the stock market tends to rise more than it falls: down years are nowhere close to as frequent as up years. This is not particularly surprising, considering the prominent role that equity markets play in finance.Second, the five-day rule is not airtight. There is almost a 20% chance that a rising market during the first five trading days ends up being down on the year. Ultimately, economic conditions, not some hoary heuristic, will determine the outcome. After all, why should the first five days be determinative of anything? It is understandable that many retail and institutional investors would want to signal confidence for the year, but there is no underlying economic reason why this period should be considered especially predictive.Nevertheless, other recent developments offer some cause for hope. Commentators may soon change their tune, and that could make investors more open to embracing a different collective narrative than the one that has been influencing their behavior so far. I can see three reasons why that could happen.First, despite the war in Ukraine, many commodity prices – including <a fr-original-style="" href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Geopolitical-Risk-Premium-In-US-Gas-Prices-Is-Evaporating.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">natural gas</a> – fell significantly in the second half of 2022. That not only increases the probability that inflationary pressures will ease; it also means that companies and consumers’ disposable income is not as vulnerable as was previously assumed. Equally important, several high-frequency indicators for late 2022 and early 2023 have been better than expected, notably in Europe.Second, other inflation indicators have also been better than expected on both sides of the Atlantic, including the most recent US <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/view-us-payrolls-show-labor-market-remains-strong-wages-rises-cool-2023-01-06/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">wage-data series</a>. While the Fed and many other central banks insist that they will remain hawkish, I am reminded of something a famously successful US hedge fund manager once told me: The only thing you can know about the Fed is that it will change its message when the evidence changes. If the inflation picture continues to improve faster than Fed officials expect, they will change their view.Finally, one must not forget China, which suddenly abandoned its zero-COVID policy in December. Notwithstanding the massive surge in infections and hospitalizations, the end of lockdowns sets the stage for a big cyclical bounce in the Chinese economy – even with all the other structural challenges that Chinese authorities must confront. Recall that there was a similar post-lockdown rebound in many other countries (even the United Kingdom, despite <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/uk-economy-underperformance-post-brexit-winter-by-jim-o-neill-2022-12" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">all its other problems</a>).Investors will seek further clues in what happens next. If markets manage to remain slightly more bullish through the end of the month, I suspect many commentators’ views will also shift. Then it will be time to consider whether things are really looking up – or whether the five-day rule is best ignored.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK treasury minister, is a member of the Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022.<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.project-syndicate.org&source=gmail&ust=1672910938098000&usg=AOvVaw0KZ_gPIANNPZyrwxEWJw31" fr-original-style="" href="https://link.apos.to/c/9RnCQ5C7hs4X?c=nGyqdUfJBBfvSpIbqyl6E&sub=62b033905d379200061d8935&s=web" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a>

Aposto Finance

An old finance-industry heuristic and recent developments in the real economy may have weakened the pessimists' case.

A Better Year for Stock Markets?

LONDON – A friend recently forwarded me an email from a client who was bemoaning the state of the United Kingdom and questioning whether it still met the standards of a G7 country. In response, I joked that since the population chose to leave the European Union, the country has been in the dismal position his client described, but maybe it cannot get much worse from here. A contrarian might want to buy the pound on the grounds that the mood will improve as things become marginally less disappointing.In fact, gallows humor aside, it would be a risky bet, because there is ample evidence to suggest that the country will be very challenged unless there are bolder policies. The reasons fall into three broad, interrelated categories, starting with Brexit.Britain has been paralyzed in many ways both by the decision to leave the EU and by the way it was done. Mainstream politicians and the current government are too scared to admit that Brexit has significantly harmed the economy. Nor will they even discuss the possibility of mimicking membership in the EU’s single market through the alignment of regulatory and trade policies.As a tactical matter, the current government’s reluctance is vaguely understandable, given <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-13/sunak-would-lose-uk-seat-under-poll-giving-labour-20-point-lead" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">current opinion polls</a> and persistent pressure from avid Brexiteers like Nigel Farage. But Labour, too, has remained relatively quiet. Although Labour leader Keir Starmer was one of the most <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/24/world/europe/starmer-britain-brexit.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">articulate advocates</a> of remaining in the EU, the party seems not to want to re-litigate the issue now that it is already ahead in the polls.Is this wise? All those cutting-edge analysts who presciently warned that disgruntled voters would be pleased if the UK left the EU are now pointing to signs that some of the same voters <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-regret-economy-rejoin-eu-b2242226.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">regret</a> the decision, or at least the way it was carried out. There is certainly little doubt that Brexit has indeed been bad for the economy. Standard economic indicators – real (inflation-adjusted) <a fr-original-style="" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locations=OE-GB" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">GDP growth</a>, <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/press-releases/uk-business-investment-fell-to-lowest-rate-in-the-g7-after-corporation-tax-cut-to-19-per-cent-ippr-finds" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">investment</a> levels, the size of the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-has-the-uks-pandemic-labour-market-compared-with-other-g7-countries" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">labor force</a> – all show that the UK has underperformed relative to its peers in recent years.Before the 2016 Brexit referendum, I could see why many might have wanted to leave the EU, even if it would almost certainly be an initial negative for the economy. I didn’t believe that the EU was the single most important issue facing the country. I was more worried about the UK’s dreadful <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/e7a8cb3a-efcc-4d62-962b-d284545c14f6" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">productivity</a> performance and staggering <a fr-original-style="" href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-big-are-regional-economic-inequalities-in-the-uk/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">regional inequalities</a>. Though I favored Remain, I was at least open to the idea that leaving the EU would provide the political shock necessary to tackle these problems.But while four subsequent prime ministers have claimed that they would address the country’s investment and productivity challenges, none has done so, either because they didn’t survive in power long enough or because they were never sincerely committed in the first place.That brings us to the UK’s second big problem: our <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/uk-equity-funds-fared-dreadfully-in-the-recent-dowturn/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">investment performance</a> remains dreadful relative to most of our peers, and it is hard to see how productivity will improve in the absence of a major change. The Brexit-induced shock to both trade and the labor supply has made the creation of a new investment program even more urgent.In 2022, Liz Truss’s short-lived government claimed it would boost productivity through old-fashioned tax cuts, but we know how that <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pound-weakening-uk-us-fiscal-monetary-policy-factors-by-jim-o-neill-2022-09" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">turned out</a>. Now, her replacement, Rishi Sunak, has been concentrating on <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.livemint.com/news/world/rishi-sunak-eyes-50-billion-of-tax-hikes-spending-cuts-for-his-new-economic-plan-11666949776584.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">fiscal responsibility</a> while paying little attention to the still-urgent need to boost investment spending. While his government has restored some confidence in financial markets, it has not offered any new hope for the economy. Worse, it could be <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-62064552" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">two years</a> before the next election.In the UK and across other advanced economies, there is a clear case to be made for much bolder policies to force the private sector to boost investment spending. The case for bolder public investment spending is even stronger. As long as such a program is well articulated, transparent, and endorsed by non-partisan organizations (such as the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility and the National Infrastructure Commission), financial markets will respond positively.The third big problem is <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/how-government-can-make-progress-levelling-despite-tight-budgets" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">regional inequality</a>. Here, there is still hope for building a broad-based consensus around bold solutions. Notwithstanding the ongoing factional political battles, the current government seems to recognize that it must get serious about devolving more economic policymaking authority and stimulating investment in the country’s less prosperous areas. Moreover, though Labour largely ignored the problem of inter-regional inequality for many years (ever since the days when I chaired the Cities Growth Commission in 2013-14), the party has finally <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2022/jul/24/can-labour-think-big-and-make-levelling-up-work" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">woken up</a>.“Leveling up” the UK’s underperforming regions still holds massive promise. As we showed in the David Cameron government’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32720462" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Northern Powerhouse plan</a>, the UK is <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/northern-powerhouse-community-investment-by-jim-o-neill-2019-05?barrier=accesspaylog" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">well positioned</a> to capitalize on its excellent universities, alternative energies, and other reliable sources of innovation and growth.The UK economy desperately needs new, forward-looking leadership. The political party that takes the leveling-up challenge most seriously could enjoy a long stint in office.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK treasury minister, is a member of the Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022. <a fr-original-style="" href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a>

Things Can Only Get Better for the UK

By Bill Emmott&nbsp;LONDON – Companies have long had to manage “key person risk,” even taking out insurance against the possibility of losing top executives through death, illness, or injury. But the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://theconversation.com/dramatic-collapse-of-the-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-contains-lessons-for-investors-but-wont-affect-most-people-194692" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">collapse</a> of the crypto exchange FTX, Meta’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/27/1131705422/facebook-meta-earnings-stock-price-fall-metaverse" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">plummeting</a> share price, and the <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-04/how-elon-musk-s-twitter-twtr-takeover-turned-into-chaos-quicktake" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">chaos</a> at Twitter following its takeover by Elon Musk suggest that “key people” can pose a very different kind of danger. Call it “Napoleonic founder” risk. Perhaps investors and lenders should be demanding a premium to cover the risk that a star entrepreneur will one day become an egomaniacal dictator, burning money along the way.The risk is not new, of course. Business history is full of executives going rogue with corporate funds, and of successful entrepreneurs failing to realize that mature, publicly traded companies are not their personal playthings. But with each business cycle, it seems, old lessons must be relearned.Following the dot-com crash at the turn of this century, the storied American investor Warren Buffett famously <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">quipped</a> that “you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” Such is the modern business cycle: it flows eternally from optimism to pessimism, and from boom to bust. Yet Buffett might have added that the optimistic high tides are the moments when precautions must be put in place. Once you have been confronted with the naked truth, your money may already have been lost.This was <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/11/17/the-failure-of-ftx-and-sam-bankman-fried-will-leave-deep-scars" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">certainly true</a> in the case of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX, which was valued at as much as $32 billion earlier this year. Few will sympathize with those who have lost money from the company’s collapse. Notwithstanding Bankman-Fried’s pretense of offering a mature version of crypto, everyone involved should have known it was a casino. And anyone who was paying attention to Bankman-Fried’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/11/22/sbf-ftx-bahamas-house-lifestyle/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">extravagant lifestyle</a> should have seen that he was no Buffett.To be sure, it is difficult for investors to take precautions against such buccaneers. Those who back a company like FTX are looking for high-risk bets with the potential for massive rewards. Still, the smart investor ought to be able to detect signs that a buccaneer is becoming something closer to a pirate. With Bankman-Fried, the clues were everywhere: he was <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/14/sam-bankman-fried-bahamas-penthouse-ftx-crypto" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">running the company</a> with a few close friends from a penthouse in the Bahamas.Likewise, former British Prime Minister <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/david-cameron-1" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">David Cameron</a> should have seen that something was awry with his highly remunerated advisory role at Greensill Capital well before the firm <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/28/business/greensill-capital-collapse.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">went bust</a> in 2021. What, after all, was the firm’s Australian buccaneer-founder, Lex Greensill, doing with <a fr-original-style="" href="https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/is-billionaire-lex-greensill-building-an-airline" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">four private jets</a>, all maintained on the company’s tab?Since investment is all about making bets on an unknowable future, confidence, trust, and salesmanship are a big part of the game. While investors are nominally backing business plans, their belief in that plan often depends on their belief in a person. The founder of Theranos, Elizabeth Holmes, who has just been <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63685131" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">sentenced to prison</a> for fraud, may or may not have believed that her firm could develop a technology to revolutionize the diagnostic-testing industry. But what mattered was her ability to convince investors that, with enough money, her miraculous vision could come true.A diversified portfolio is the main defense against losses from fraud or delusional thinking. The entire venture-capital industry rests on the idea that if you bet on enough ambitious start-ups, the gains from the rare success stories will far outweigh the losses from all the duds and rogues. During the long era of ultra-cheap capital – combined with the potentially global markets available to technology firms – the sales pitches became more seductive, and the bets much larger. But the basic principles have always been the same.With battle-hardened superstar entrepreneurs like Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg or Twitter’s Elon Musk, the issue is more complex. Having proven themselves over the past two decades, they are now more like veteran CEOs than start-up founders. Yet it is worth remembering that Napoleon Bonaparte also was a political and military veteran when he launched his disastrous invasion of Russia in 1812.As success builds on success, and as the billions accumulate and the empires grow larger, two things happen. First, the business – or, in Musk’s case, the business empire – becomes so large and complex that it needs professional managers, formal structures, and plenty of checks and balances. But, second, those who build multi-billion-dollar companies from the ground up often come to exhibit a sense of entitlement and impunity, behaving as though all this scaffolding merely obstructed their vision.The many years of cheap capital – a seemingly permanent high tide – obscured this tendency. The good times went on for so long that many investors forgot the basics, while politicians, happy to see job creation and growth in new industries, became far too indulgent toward tech billionaires, who often became major sources of campaign donations.Meta is a case in point. Anyone holding the company’s stock should have recognized the risks associated with the company’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-control-facebook-whistleblower-key-man-risk-2021-10?r=US&IR=T" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">dual-class share structure</a>. Although Zuckerberg holds only 13% of all shares, he owns around 55% of voting shares, and thus enjoys carte blanche in the company’s decision-making.In the good times, this structure – shared by other tech firms, such as Alphabet (Google) – may have seemed to make sense. But with Meta’s share price having fallen by <a fr-original-style="" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">three-quarters</a> over the past year, and with Zuckerberg <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f4c676c-56a6-4b5e-850f-ddb78f9feb40" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">betting the company</a> by investing billions in creating a virtual-reality experience (the metaverse), investors are up in arms, even though they have only themselves to blame.Will Musk – or his lenders and investors – heed this lesson? Musk’s behavior at Twitter so far suggests that everyone involved is in for a costly education. He has already <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/elon-musks-rapid-changes-twitter-raise-legal-concerns-experts-say-rcna57549" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">sacked half the company’s staff</a>, possibly breaking employment laws in the process. He now must come up with a way to make Twitter profitable enough to justify the $44 billion purchase price. That is a tall order. While the overall attention paid to Twitter may have increased, many top advertisers – the platform’s main revenue source – have already <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2022/11/22/advertisers-hit-the-pause-button-with-twitter/?sh=2862ad7939f6" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">suspended</a> their campaigns.Napoleon fought more battles after his retreat from Moscow, some with great skill, but his reputation for invincibility never recovered. No one can unsee a naked emperor.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Bill Emmott, a former editor-in-chief of&nbsp;The Economist, is Co-Director of the Global Commission for Post-Pandemic Policy.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022. <a fr-original-style="" href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a>&nbsp;

Aposto Tech

The Napoleons of Big Tech

To know more about Yasemin and check out her guide about Istanbul performing arts &amp; theatre scene subscribe to <a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/i/3-2-1-action" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Aposto Istanbul</a> and read the interview. We are waiting for you there.&nbsp;<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">ID</h2>My nickname: Yaso, Bahlül or Yasmine (for all non-Turkish speakers)I have recently discovered: Song Que, the best pho place in LondonI live in: Istanbul and London, but my heart belongs to our village house at Milas.I definitely want to see: Martin McDonagh’s The Pillowman even though it’s coming next summer. Lily Allen will act in it so that makes it even more exciting.For a play, this is the destination: I think the plays at the Harold Pinter Theatre are always a great catch.My favourite daytime hangout: Music and Beans Shoreditch or One Hundred Hotel.A Londoner you must meet: Joseph Charlton is of great interest to me because he is a former journalist and a playwright.This theatre is a local gem: I am not sure about calling it a 'local' gem but I would definitely say Arcola Theatre.Only a true Londoner would know: Not to press the button to open the tube door.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">SHOOT THE BREEZE</h2>How long have you been a Londoner? What attracted you to this city?I wouldn’t dare to call myself a Londoner because it has only been six months but I have always been in love with London because when you are seeing the world through the lens of musical theatre as I do, there is no better place!<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/10/1/1668417290542.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" width="550" ratio="0.80" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable"><h4 fr-original-style="text-align: center;" style="text-align: center; margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Yasemin in London</h4><hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">How does the city shape your profession? How do people and the culture of your hometown inspire you?I love how London allows everyone to do their own thing without any judgement. As someone who constantly works in different fields, I find it easier to adapt to London. However, I will always carry my hometown wherever I go because my greatest goal is to tell our stories in a universal manner in one way or another.London is described as a multicultural, multicoloured city, do you see indicators of that on the art scene, especially in performing arts?Yes yes yes! The most truthful thing I have ever heard since I came here is that in London everyone is from somewhere and no one is from anywhere. It is truly as if everyone just blends with their individualities.

Aposto London

Meet Yasemin. She is an actor, scriptwriter and singer living part-time in London and Istanbul. 

Yasemin Bahloul Nirun

<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/10/1/1668417800368.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" width="550" ratio="0.80" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable"><h4 fr-original-style="text-align: center;" style="text-align: center; margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">A foggy London Monday walk</h4><hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">In London, it's customary to talk about the weather. How much rain is expected at what time; will the rainbow be visible today; how about the humidity? What is your favourite London weather, let us know <a fr-original-style="" href="https://instagram.com/aposto.london" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">@aposto.london</a>

<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/9/1/1666015196381.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" width="550" ratio="0.75" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable"><h4 fr-original-style="text-align: center;" style="text-align: center; margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Last Saturday at Frieze London</h4><hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">When in London, what are your inspirations, what makes this city perdurable? Write your aha moments to us: <a fr-original-style="" href="https://instagram.com/aposto.london" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">@aposto.london</a>

LONDON ile ilgili hikayeler