On May 14-28, 2023, Turkey held two pivotal elections that would determine the fate of the presidential government system and Turkish democracy. The ruling People's Alliance faced competition from the opposition Nation's Alliance and the Labor and Freedom Alliance. In the presidential election, the Labor and Freedom Alliance did not field its own candidate but instead supported the Nation's Alliance candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Ultimately, the People's Alliance emerged as the victor in both the parliamentary and presidential elections, which were constitutionally mandated to be held concurrently.&nbsp;These elections highlighted the challenges the opposition faces in electoral authoritarian systems. Considering that the opposition not only competes against the opposing political party or candidate but also against the entire state apparatus, it is difficult to claim that the elections were conducted fairly. Particularly when the judiciary has been transformed into a tool of power, it can be likened to the opposition having to not only defeat their opponent but also the referee. Throughout this election process, the judiciary did not hesitate to favor the government, evident through actions such as threatening a political ban on a prominent opposition presidential candidate, filing a party closure case against a party expected to have a significant role in the elections, ongoing court proceedings, as well as investigations and prosecutions targeting the opposition.On the other hand, the Supreme Electoral Council undeniably provided the government with an advantage through decisions that violated the Constitution, such as allowing the President to run for a third term and permitting ministers and the Vice President to run for parliament without resigning. The fairness of the election was further compromised by the investigative and prosecutorial authorities, who exhibited leniency towards the government during the campaign but took an aggressive stance against the opposition. While no investigations were initiated into the government's blatant disinformation, those who voiced concerns regarding irregularities or corruption were swiftly silenced by the judiciary.The fairness of the election was not solely influenced by the judiciary's approach. There were no mechanisms in place to prevent the utilization of state resources for direct election propaganda, which was extensively employed. The state broadcaster TRT was overtly transformed into a government propaganda tool, while RTÜK announced investigations against opposition TV channels that aired on election night. The majority of media outlets, which are controlled by the government (accounting for over 95% of the total media), function as one-sided propaganda machines. The opposition was portrayed as colluding with terrorist organizations. Voters, particularly in rural areas with limited access to social media, were highly exposed to this biased propaganda. Additionally, it is well-known that the government allocated significant funds for targeted social media advertisements aimed at specific groups. Consequently, it is difficult to assert that the elections were conducted on equal terms and in a fair manner.Despite these challenges, it is not impossible for the opposition to win the elections. The current conditions in the country have created a strong demand for change in society. The government's social support has been significantly weakened due to factors such as economic downturn, foreign policy failures, injustices, inequalities, incompetent leadership, corruption, and inefficient public services.&nbsp;The opposition stands a chance of success if it can present a compelling alternative to the government and effectively engage with voters. However, it is important to acknowledge that the opposition parties face certain disadvantages in this regard compared to the ruling alliance. While the ruling party can appeal to a homogenous mass with a nationalist conservative identity, the opposition must appeal to diverse identity groups that may be difficult to unite. In other words, the opposition needs to bring together secularists, Kemalists, nationalists, Turkish nationalists, various leftist groups, liberals, disenchanted conservatives, nationalist Kurds, conservative Kurds, and other social minorities, and consolidate their power towards a common goal.The only way to achieve this was by removing identity from being a political problem. It required presenting and consistently defending a democratization program that respects everyone's identity, accepts individuals as they are, but does not target any identity group for political gain. This approach involved inviting political parties representing diverse identity groups to cooperate through open and transparent processes, and ensuring that the agreed program is communicated to their party members and voter bases.However, this alone was not sufficient. It was crucial to present a political program that included rational public policies addressing the country's current issues, along with detailed budgets, timelines, and competent staff to implement them. While the formation of the "Table of Six" was a positive step in this direction, the participating parties could not fully assure the public of their commitment to stable democratization. They struggled to break free from the identity-based discourse of the government and relied on eclectic rhetoric. Moreover, the lack of transparency in the candidate selection process, the delayed announcement of candidates, and the perception of predetermined outcomes undermined public confidence.In the parliamentary elections, the absence of well-designed cooperation models also affected the opposition's results. However, if the CHP and the IYI Party had formed a single electoral list, while the other four parties of the Nation's Alliance had run separately, and if the TİP and YSP had formed a joint list, the distribution of seats in the parliament could have been more favorable to the opposition.Lastly, there is no excuse for the opposition's failure to protect the integrity of the ballot boxes and establish reliable software and system to monitor election results.

The Freedom Observer

Moreover, the lack of transparency in the candidate selection process, the delayed announcement of candidates, and the perception of predetermined outcomes undermined public confidence. In the parliamentary elections, the absence of well-designed cooperation models also affected the opposition's results.

What Did the 2023 Elections Show Us?

We are fast approaching to the 2023 Turkish general elections. Before the elections, the People's Alliance stands out with its polarizing, hostile and discriminatory rhetoric. The Nation Alliance, on the other hand, draws attention with its rhetoric based on reconstructing social peace, reconciliation and love with the heart signs made with hands during the campaign. However, in recent weeks, the homophobic rhetoric of the Yeniden Refah Partisi and the threats to the existence of LGBTI+ organizations seem to have been accepted by the society to a certain extent, and similar statements were also reflected in the discourses of the Nation Alliance candidates.In the event that the People's Alliance wins the elections, many worrying scenarios are foreseen for non-governmental organizations and individuals working in the field of LGBTI+ rights. The reason is clear. Some members of the People's Alliance openly promise that LGBTI+ associations will be closed. In an environment where these hate speeches are spearheaded by the President, the Minister of Interior and the Minister of Justice, the polarizing discourses of "either us or LGBT people" cause anxiety among LGBTI+ rights defenders.[1]Although the Nation Alliance stands out with its more peaceful and inclusive rhetoric that gives confidence to LGBTIs, unfortunately, there have been some statements to the contrary from this very segment recently. These statements, which can be interpreted as making fun of LGBTI identities and associating them with immorality, are disappointing because they are made by those who we think are more democratic and peaceful in politics.[2] Although this situation did not lead LGBTI individuals to give up supporting the Nation Alliance candidate in the Presidential elections, it greatly reduced their expectations from a possible Nation Alliance government.[3] Nevertheless, although homophobic statements are false and distrustful, in the light of their statements so far, it can be expected that LGBTI+ individuals will be freer and more comfortable in a possible Nation Alliance government compared to their current situation.The ongoing discourse of the People's Alliance reflects a superiority or inferiority between lifestyles where the winner will make the life of the other difficult. On the other hand, it would be appropriate to see the homophobic statements of the Nation Alliance, which emphasizes social peace, reconciliation, and unity in almost every issue, as a mistake made as a result of carelessness rather than a sign of public policy preference.<a fr-original-style="" href="#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank" title=""> </a><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;"> <a href="#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title="" target="_blank" fr-original-style="" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;"></a>[1] https://bianet.org/bianet/lgbti/278415-secim-yarisinda-nefret-yayiliyor-lgbti-dernekleri-uyardi-suc-isliyorsunuz[2] https://kaosgl.org/haber/millet-ittifaki-bilesenleri-acilen-ayrimci-soylemden-geri-donmeli-lgbti-haklarini-konusmali[3] https://kaosgl.org/haber/lgbti-lara-nefret-soylemi-toplum-sagligini-olumsuz-etkiliyor

The ongoing discourse of the People's Alliance reflects a superiority or inferiority between lifestyles where the winner will make the life of the other difficult. On the other hand, it would be appropriate to see the homophobic statements of the Nation Alliance, which emphasizes social peace, reconciliation, and unity in almost every issue, as a mistake made as a result of carelessness rather than a sign of public policy preference.

The Difficult Test of LGBTI+s: 2023 Elections

The Presidential and Parliamentary elections, which will be held on May 14, are a critical turning point for Turkey in many respects. After the elections, regardless of the results, dramatic changes await us in the country's economic and political situation. Parties that are aware of the risks and spend all their energies on setting the agenda. While the AKP follows a political and economic populist election strategy, opposition parties are running a more constructive campaign targeting the votes of "median" voters.&nbsp;In all this turmoil, the parties are trying to implement other methods that can affect the election results as well as the struggle on the field. Chief among these is influencing the decisions of the YSK regarding the implementation of the election and the creation of ballots.For this purpose, the AKP representative of the YSK, Recep Özel, made an application to the YSK. In this application, he requested that the phrase Nation Alliance should not be included in the ballot papers on the grounds that the 4 political parties within the Special Nation Alliance did not submit a list of candidates, and the CHP and IYI Party did not submit a candidate list in some electoral circles, on the other hand, they did not submit an additional protocol to change the alliance protocol. In the application, he stated that with the removal of the Nation Alliance from the ballots, the calculation of the election threshold should be done separately for each political party. Evaluating the application, the YSK stated that "although the Democracy and Atılım Party, Democratic Party, Future Party and Felicity Party, which are all members of the Nation Alliance, have not nominated candidates in any electoral districts, the CHPand the İYİ Party, which are the other parties in the alliance, are in the provinces. The YSK &nbsp;rejected this application by a majority, saying, "The request that the Nation's Alliance continues and that the alliance protocol is invalid because the CHP and İYİ Party has nominated candidates for more than half of the total of electoral districts." YSK chairman Ahmet Yener and three other members voted "against" this decision.Although the YSK's rejection of the AKP representative's request to remove the phrase Nation Alliance from the ballot papers is positive in terms of establishing fair competition, the fact that four members voted for the acceptance of this obviously unfounded demand raises concerns about the decisions to be taken by the YSK, especially on the election day and after. Considering the decisions that the YSK has hindered the democratic process in the past months and especially in the 2019 local elections, considering the benefit of the AKP, we can say that the way to win this election is not only through the ballot boxes, but also through the decisions of the YSK. In this respect, the members of the YSK, who are supposed to be impartial, have a great responsibility in this election. *&nbsp;Ömer Faruk Şen – Ph.D. – Missouri University&nbsp;

Considering the decisions that the YSK has hindered the democratic process in the past months and especially in the 2019 local elections, considering the benefit of the AKP, we can say that the way to win this election is not only through the ballot boxes, but also through the decisions of the YSK. In this respect, the members of the YSK, who are supposed to be impartial, have a great responsibility in this election.

YSK Decisions

Opinion PollsThe Metropoll Research survey&nbsp;showed that 50% of respondents think that their way of life is under threat, while 47.6% do not. The rate of those who did not express an opinion was 2.4%.Vote distribution by parties: While the majority of CHP, İYİ Party, and HDP voters are concerned about lifestyle, the majority of AK Party and MHP voters are not. The rates were close to each other among DEVA Party and Felicity Party voters. Among undecided voters, the rate of those with lifestyle concerns was 39.3%, while it was 55.7% among the voters who will vote in protest.Editor's comment: This survey may be interpreted as an indication that CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu's call for a constitutional guarantee for the headscarf will not be convincing for the majority of swing voters. According to the results, it can be stated that secularists experience lifestyle threats the most.In the survey conducted by BUPAR Research, 39.8% of the respondents answered "To prevent the issue from becoming an argument in the hands of the AK Party, "35.5% answered "To provide a legal basis for what happens in daily life" and 13.9% answered "To get votes from conservative voters" to the question "Why did CHP propose a law on headscarf?." The rate of those who think that CHP's move will bring an increase in votes for the party was 54.6%."People's alliance candidate will win":&nbsp;To the question "Which candidate of which alliance will be elected as the president?" 36.7% responded "People's Alliance" and 60.4% "Nation's Alliance."Those who say "Erdoğan will win" are on the rise:&nbsp;On the other hand, in the survey conducted by Metropoll Research, the rate of those who said "Erdoğan absolutely will win" was 24.8%, while the rate of those who said "Erdoğan will win" was 23.7%. In total, 48.5% stated that President Erdoğan will be re-elected. In the survey, the rate of those who stated that "Erdoğan absolutely cannot win" was 16.8%, and the rate of those who stated that "he cannot win" was 30.9%. The total rate of those who think that President Erdoğan will not be re-elected was 47.7%.Editor's comment:&nbsp;As the image of a government that ignores the reality of the economic crisis is replaced by one that accepts the crisis and tries to solve it, the belief that the opposition will win without putting forward a governance model is diminishing. If the opposition, which is expected to nominate a joint candidate, announces a joint governance program for the country's administration, especially the economy, as soon as possible, the belief that it will win may increase again.In the Turkey Report survey,&nbsp;an overwhelming majority of the public, 84%, said that the Presidency of Religious Affairs should include Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the sermons read on national holidays. The rate of those who did not think that Atatürk should be included in the sermons was 11%.One step behind:&nbsp;The absence of Atatürk in the sermons on August 30th and October 29th drew reactions.

Spektrum

Opinion PollsIn the Gezici Research study, 44.8% of the respondents answered opposition "Nation Alliance" and 40.3% answered government "People's Alliance" to the question "who will fix the economy?". The rate of swing voters, mostly young people, was 14.9%.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Impoverishment continues: To the question "What is the most significant problem of the country?" 74% answered "economy". The rate of those who agree that "Erdoğan's administration will not be able to fix the country's economy" was 76%, while the rate of those who live on state aid was 24%.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">The People's Alliance is melting: MAK Consultancy Research shared the last year's survey results. The company's study showed that the People's Alliance, which received 0.3% more votes than the sum of the parties in the table of six in June 2021, fell 17% behind in June 2022.</li></ul>Aksoy Research's survey showed that 69% of the society did not find the increase in the minimum wage sufficient. The rate of those who found the increase sufficient remained at 9.6%.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Distribution according to parties: 53.7% of AK Party voters and 60.8% of MHP voters found the increase insufficient. While 17.1% of AK Party voters and 14.7% of MHP voters found the hike sufficient.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Impact on purchasing power: Only 8.6% of the society thinks that the purchasing power will increase after the raise, while 52% think that it will decrease.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Distribution according to parties: 14.6% of AK Party voters and 6.9% of MHP voters said that purchasing power would increase. These rates were much lower among voters of other parties.</li></ul><ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Editor's comment: The increase in the minimum wage will not increase support for the government and citizens will struggle to meet even their basic needs despite the raise.</li></ul>

Nation ile ilgili hikayeler