Turkey re-elected President Erdoğan in the May 28th election, marking an intriguing experience for the country. The opposition politicians and citizens were confident in their potential victory, particularly in the first round. In the 2019 municipal elections, the Millet Alliance, led by the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Iyi Parti (İYİP), supported by the Democratic Party (DP) and the Felicity Party (SP), successfully won municipalities from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, Adana, Mersin, and Antalya. This triumph served as a significant motivation for Erdoğan's opponents.Additionally, President Erdoğan exerted considerable effort to repeat the local elections in Istanbul, and in the subsequent election, the CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu further increased his vote share and assumed the position of Istanbul's mayor. This outcome demonstrated the opposition's notable success under the umbrella of an alliance. Naturally, Erdoğan's opponents entered the general election under the Millet Alliance, leveraging the strength gained from the 2019 elections. However, the alliance system that proved effective in the local elections did not yield the same outcome in the general elections, resulting in Erdoğan securing his third term as the President of the Republic of Turkey.On the contrary, Erdoğan now faces a more challenging test: the economy. Despite presenting an electoral economic plan and making certain economic promises such as reducing unemployment, achieving a growth rate of 5.5%, raising the national income per capita to $16,000, and constructing favorable housing for earthquake victims, Erdoğan did not place significant emphasis on economic promises during his pre-election propaganda. While articles were written and leaflets were prepared on these matters, economic developments were not the focal point of Erdoğan's rallies or television programs. Instead, he primarily focused on accusing the opposition alliance of supporting terrorism. It remains uncertain whether this discourse resonated with the public, but it is evident that this was the primary issue Erdoğan emphasized throughout the campaign.While inflation and the devaluation of the Turkish lira are the most pressing issues in Turkey, the lack of emphasis on the economy Erdogan during the election process has raised concerns among economists. As mentioned in previous bulletins, the Turkish economy is grappling with high inflation, a depreciating currency, and a significant current account deficit. The proposed "Turkey Economy Model" and "Liraization" strategy, aimed at addressing these problems, have largely depleted the reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), raising doubts about whether Erdogan will reconsider this model after the elections.Although the economy was not the central focus of Erdogan's campaign, discussions surrounding how to revive the economy and who would be entrusted with its management have dominated the post-election discourse. In this regard, the name Mehmet Simsek has emerged as a prominent figure. Before the elections, Erdogan held several meetings with Mehmet Simsek, and it was even announced to the press that these meetings were taking place. However, no significant developments on this matter were observed at that time.Mehmet Şimşek is widely recognized in the Western capital as a successful finance minister, particularly during the period when the Turkish economy was highly regarded in Europe. Together with Ali Babacan, he managed the Turkish economy during a time of prosperity. Simsek was named the finance minister of the year by Emerging Markets magazine in 2013 and was recognized as one of the 500 most influential people in the world by Foreign Policy magazine in the same year. However, the Turkish economy took a different direction with significant changes, particularly under Berat Albayrak, who is Erdogan's son-in-law.It appears that Erdogan intends to reappoint Mehmet Şimşek to oversee the economy in an attempt to return to the successful past. However, at the same time, Erdogan seems determined to maintain his belief that "interest rates are the cause of inflation."&nbsp;It remains uncertain whether there will be a return to orthodox economic policies or if a middle ground can be reached between Simsek and Erdogan. Only time will reveal whether Simsek's economic understanding and Erdogan's perspective on interest rates can work harmoniously.

The Freedom Observer

It remains uncertain whether there will be a return to orthodox economic policies or if a middle ground can be reached between Simsek and Erdogan. 

On the verge of economical discharge: Comeback era of M. Şimşek

<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Metropoll Research survey revealed that 58% of women wear headscarves, while 39% do not.&nbsp;</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">There is no headscarf problem:&nbsp;Only 8% of respondents said "yes" to the question "Do you think there is a headscarf problem for those working in universities or public institutions?".</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;The ban will not return: In response to the question "If CHP comes to power, would the headscarf ban be reinstated for those working in universities and public institutions?" 35% said "yes," while 60.4% said "no."</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Social distribution: While a majority of the ruling party voters stated that the ban would return under CHP rule, an even larger proportion of opposition voters stated that the ban would not return.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Distribution according to headscarf use: 41% of headscarf wearers and 27% of non-headscarf wearers stated that the ban would return.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Women's concerns: Only women were asked the question "Are you worried about being able to walk on the street in the clothes you want?" 26% said "yes" and 72.4% said "no."</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Opposition women are more worried:&nbsp;Women who vote for opposition parties are more concerned about their clothes than women who vote for AK Party and MHP.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Women who do not wear headscarves are more worried: By a small margin, women who do not wear headscarves are more worried than women who do.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kılıçdaroğlu's exit was "wrong":&nbsp;56% of the respondents stated that CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu's decision to introduce legal guarantees for headscarves was wrong. The rate of those who found Kılıçdaroğlu's statement right remained at 38%.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Distribution by parties: The majority of CHP, İYİ Party, Felicity Party, and DEVA Party voters agreed with Kılıçdaroğlu's decision, while voters of other parties disagreed with Kılıçdaroğlu's decision.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Distribution by headscarf use: The majority of both women who wear headscarves and women who do not wear headscarves think that Kılıçdaroğlu's initiative was wrong.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Editor's comment:&nbsp;It seems that the CHP leader's call to persuade citizens who are far from his base did not meet with the desired response. On the other hand, it can be said that the headscarf issue has been resolved in society. The fact that the issue is still being used as a political tool may be interpreted as raising concerns. </li></ul>Report The European Union's report revealed that between 2011 and 2020, an average of 9 thousand hectares of forestland burned annually in Turkey, totaling 9095 hectares. According to the report, the forest area burned in 2021 increased dramatically to 139,505 hectares. The report stated that the most burned area in Europe in 2021 was in Turkey and 91% of the fires were caused by human activities.

Spektrum

Opinion PollsThe Metropoll Research survey&nbsp;showed that 50% of respondents think that their way of life is under threat, while 47.6% do not. The rate of those who did not express an opinion was 2.4%.Vote distribution by parties: While the majority of CHP, İYİ Party, and HDP voters are concerned about lifestyle, the majority of AK Party and MHP voters are not. The rates were close to each other among DEVA Party and Felicity Party voters. Among undecided voters, the rate of those with lifestyle concerns was 39.3%, while it was 55.7% among the voters who will vote in protest.Editor's comment: This survey may be interpreted as an indication that CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu's call for a constitutional guarantee for the headscarf will not be convincing for the majority of swing voters. According to the results, it can be stated that secularists experience lifestyle threats the most.In the survey conducted by BUPAR Research, 39.8% of the respondents answered "To prevent the issue from becoming an argument in the hands of the AK Party, "35.5% answered "To provide a legal basis for what happens in daily life" and 13.9% answered "To get votes from conservative voters" to the question "Why did CHP propose a law on headscarf?." The rate of those who think that CHP's move will bring an increase in votes for the party was 54.6%."People's alliance candidate will win":&nbsp;To the question "Which candidate of which alliance will be elected as the president?" 36.7% responded "People's Alliance" and 60.4% "Nation's Alliance."Those who say "Erdoğan will win" are on the rise:&nbsp;On the other hand, in the survey conducted by Metropoll Research, the rate of those who said "Erdoğan absolutely will win" was 24.8%, while the rate of those who said "Erdoğan will win" was 23.7%. In total, 48.5% stated that President Erdoğan will be re-elected. In the survey, the rate of those who stated that "Erdoğan absolutely cannot win" was 16.8%, and the rate of those who stated that "he cannot win" was 30.9%. The total rate of those who think that President Erdoğan will not be re-elected was 47.7%.Editor's comment:&nbsp;As the image of a government that ignores the reality of the economic crisis is replaced by one that accepts the crisis and tries to solve it, the belief that the opposition will win without putting forward a governance model is diminishing. If the opposition, which is expected to nominate a joint candidate, announces a joint governance program for the country's administration, especially the economy, as soon as possible, the belief that it will win may increase again.In the Turkey Report survey,&nbsp;an overwhelming majority of the public, 84%, said that the Presidency of Religious Affairs should include Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in the sermons read on national holidays. The rate of those who did not think that Atatürk should be included in the sermons was 11%.One step behind:&nbsp;The absence of Atatürk in the sermons on August 30th and October 29th drew reactions.

Although the Assad regime has regained control country's majority after 11 years of civil war in Syria, the areas are controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Turkish-backed opposition in the north of the country is substantial. Turkey's legitimate security concerns and its opposition to the statehood of the SDF/YPG, which is linked to the PKK terrorist organization, require it to support Syria's territorial integrity.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Resurgent bilateral relations</h2>Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu recently revealed that he had met with Syrian Foreign Minister Faysal Mikdad 10 months ago. Çavusoglu said that he told Mikdad that "there should be a peace between the Syrian opposition and the regime, and that Turkey could support this in such a case." While communication between intelligence agencies is well known, this was the latest development in relations that broke down after Turkey's open support for the opposition during the 2011 civil war.<blockquote fr-original-style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(37, 44, 60); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px;" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(37, 44, 60); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px; margin: 0px 0px 1em; border-left-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box;">"There is no diplomatic contact at the moment, but Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to bring Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and President Erdoğan together," Cavusoglu said. "YPG/PKK's only aim is to divide Syria. To prevent Syria's division, there must be a strong government in Syria."</blockquote><h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Davutoğlu cracked at the opposition alliance</h2>The CHP and the IYI Party have been criticizing the government's Syria policy for many years, advocating talks with Assad and peace. It is unlikely that these two parties will criticize the start of diplomatic relations and talks with Syria other than saying "we told you so, you did what we said". Past statements from the Felicity Party, the DEVA Party, and the Democrat Party have also endorsed "constructive dialog with all parties". This issue risks creating a potential rift in the opposition alliance.Future Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu was the architect of the anti-Assad Syria policy when he was Foreign Minister and Prime Minister. He called Assad "the devil" when he was prime minister, and today he maintains the position that the regime is illegitimate, saying that "Russia is trying to legitimize the Assad regime." By making the transitional government formation in Syria a precondition for the start of the talks, he indicated that the expectation of regime change remains.&nbsp;<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Realities and expectations</h3>While it is true that the Assad regime has killed thousands of innocent people and displaced millions in the civil war, Turkey is a country that should base its foreign policy on balance and peace, prioritizing its security and economy. The facts on the ground show that Assad has achieved victory in the civil war with the support of Russia and will continue to rule. Unilaterally declaring the government of a neighboring country represented at the United Nations illegitimate means the continuation of the stalemate.&nbsp;However, the refugee crisis and the return of millions of Syrians, the establishment prevention of a possible SDF/YPG state, and the establishment of peace in opposition-held areas are problems that can only be solved by dealing with the Syrian regime.The Foreign Ministry's statement, "The process is not moving forward due to the Assad regime's foot-dragging," as well as the announcement that regime soldiers were killed in the YPG positions struck by the Turkish Armed Forces on August 16, the possibility that the US may start supporting Assad's opponents again if the YPG reconciles with Assad, and the possibility that a group of Syrians in Turkey may oppose Turkey's change of policy, reveal the complexity and difficulty of the process. This complex process requires a nuanced and decisive foreign policy strategy that is "realistic, not idealistic," both before and after the elections.&nbsp;It is expected that the opposition alliance, which is expected to nominate a joint presidential candidate to lead Turkey, will adopt a common stance on an issue such as the Syria policy, which is closely related to both national security and the economy, in a way that will not leave confusion in the society.<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Anti-Turkey protests by Turkey-backed groups</h3>Immediately after Cavusoglu's statements, anti-Turkey protests broke out in areas controlled by the Turkish-backed opposition in Syria. Demonstrations chanting "neither reconciliation nor surrender in the city of Azaz, we will overthrow the regime" resulted in the burning of Turkish flags, damage to parks built by Turkey, and stoning of Turkish Armed Forces vehicles.The Syrian National Army, which Turkey formed in 2017 by restructuring a part of the Free Syrian Army fighting against Assad, said, "The Turkish flag is sacred. Those who lay a hand on it will be punished." It was reported that some protesters were detained.<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">MHP also changed its position</h3>Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the AK Party's partner MHP, had previously said, "Those who propose talks with the murderer Assad should come to their senses," and "the Turkish nation should already plan to enter Damascus if necessary. Let Syria burn, let Idlib collapse, down with Assad." This week, Bahçeli signaled a change in his Syria policy, saying, "Our minister's constructive and realistic words on the establishment of peace between the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime are a strong breath of fresh air for the search for a permanent solution. Turkey's steps on Syria are valuable and accurate."It was learned that the leader of the Patriotic Party, Doğu Perinçek, who has supported Assad since the beginning of the war in Syria and is known for his Eurasianist views, will go to Damascus to meet with Assad together with Ethem Sancak, who resigned from the AK Party and joined his party.&nbsp;

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