<span fr-original-class="customBullet" fr-original-style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 12px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block;" style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 12px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;">•&nbsp; Blinken's visit: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Ankara on Friday to meet with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan to discuss developments across Syria and behind-the-scenes contacts between Syrian opposition groups, particularly the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces to end the clashes in the north of the country.

Aposto World

The Syrian government has lost control of its second largest city, Aleppo, for the first time since the country's civil war began in 2011. The Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is the main force behind the drive which is still going on with forces pushing South towards Hama, another important city, and the capital Damascus.Important note:&nbsp;Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a coalition of northern Syria-based Sunni Islamist insurgent groups that evolved from Jabhat al-Nusrah, or “Nusrah Front,” al-Qaida’s former branch in Syria. HTS is designated as a terrorist group by the UN Security Council and countries including the US, the EU, Turkey and the UK.Russia–historically a supporter of the government–has launched strikes in Aleppo and Idlib along with regime forces. The strikes killed 372 people, including 48 civilians, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.Looking ahead:&nbsp;Syrian government has said that is preparing for a counter-offensive.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Context and why now?</h2>So much is still unknown as this unexpected break to the status quo favoring President Bashar al-Assad is unfolding. On the other hand, all this is not happening in isolation: regional and global dynamics are playing a huge part. Most notably, Assad's closest allies—and main source of the regime's military power— Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are seriously weakened and distracted by their own wars.With Assad weakened due to decreased support from allies, anti-regime rebels are seizing the opportunity to advance further.Another key global development that may be playing a part in the latest developments is Trump's election: the President-elect indicated that he would want to withdraw US soldiers from Syria. Trump's pick to run the country's health department, Robert F Kennedy Jr said on Wednesday that Trump wants to remove US troops from northern Syria rather than leaving them as "cannon fodder" if fighting broke out between Turkey and Kurdish fighters.The backstory:&nbsp;Since 2014, the US has provided support for the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fight against the Islamic State group (IS).The YPG, which controls much of northern Syria, is considered an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) by Turkey, which has repeatedly launched military incursion into Syria in an attempt to stop the group securing a continuous area of territory along the Syrian-Turkish border.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Turkey's involvement</h2>Another important aspect of this is Turkey. Most experts are in agreement that this week's developments are not independent of Ankara. This is natural as Turkey backs the anti-regime Syrian National Army (SNA) which is also taking part in the current fighting but focusing on YPG targets, which Ankara says may help Assad in exchange of regional influence over the region located on the Turkish border.Ankara is busy with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday, stressed that Türkiye opposes developments that would increase instability in the region and will never allow terrorist activities targeting Syrian civilians. Fidan has also discussed recent developments with his Russian and Saudi counterparts over the phone, Turkish state media reported.Furthermore:&nbsp;Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghci is visiting Turkey today.Another part of the story is that Ankara has been making more than a few moves to bring Assad to the negotiating table to normalize relations and discuss the return of "Syrians Under Protection (SUP)", a legal designation for the millions of Syrian refugees who fled the Assad regime. Just this week, President Erdoğan said: "We will speed up the process of voluntary return of the Syrian refugees to their homeland."However Turkish advances were not reciprocated by Assad, who refused to engage in talks before Turkish and Turkey-backed forces ended their presence in the country. A weakened Assad would be more willing to negotiate with and potentially capitulate to Ankara, meaning that Turkey does have some interest in the success of rebel groups' advance into Syria.Yet another aspect of the ongoing fighting that relates to Turkey has got to do with what's been happening in Turkey with respect to the Kurds. Recently, Erdoğan and his ultranationalist coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli have made statements saying that "Kurdish problem" should be resolved peacefully and by engaging with top PKK leadership—a complete reversal of years long policies.Recommended read:<a fr-original-style="" href="https://aposto.com/s/kurdish-problem-on-the-eve-of-a-new-peace-process" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">&nbsp;'Kurdish problem': On the eve of a new peace process?</a> | Aposto WorldIn short, Turkey welcomes the developments of the week that wealen Assad. But the prospect of US withdrawal triggers longstanding worries about YPG's influence in the region, as this could potentially push YPG to cooperate with Assad. This leads to Ankara's support for SNA's offensives into Kurdish-majority towns in Syria.

The dormant situation in Syria, with balance of power tilting toward the Assad government, has been rocked by a lightning offensive from anti-regime forces. Ankara is not just watching.

Syrian civil war enters new stage: implications for Turkey

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://apnews.com/article/europe-middle-east-arrests-turkey-bombings-105423ea02287ac5591e8f34269f7371" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Turkish police</a> said they detained 47 people, including a Syrian woman suspected of planting the bomb that killed six people and wounding at least 81 in Istanbul's Istiklal Avenue. The Interior Ministry said Kurdish militant groups were behind the attack, but no group has claimed responsibility so far, with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) denying any involvement in it.

Although the Assad regime has regained control country's majority after 11 years of civil war in Syria, the areas are controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Turkish-backed opposition in the north of the country is substantial. Turkey's legitimate security concerns and its opposition to the statehood of the SDF/YPG, which is linked to the PKK terrorist organization, require it to support Syria's territorial integrity.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Resurgent bilateral relations</h2>Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu recently revealed that he had met with Syrian Foreign Minister Faysal Mikdad 10 months ago. Çavusoglu said that he told Mikdad that "there should be a peace between the Syrian opposition and the regime, and that Turkey could support this in such a case." While communication between intelligence agencies is well known, this was the latest development in relations that broke down after Turkey's open support for the opposition during the 2011 civil war.<blockquote fr-original-style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(37, 44, 60); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px;" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(37, 44, 60); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px; margin: 0px 0px 1em; border-left-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box;">"There is no diplomatic contact at the moment, but Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to bring Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and President Erdoğan together," Cavusoglu said. "YPG/PKK's only aim is to divide Syria. To prevent Syria's division, there must be a strong government in Syria."</blockquote><h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Davutoğlu cracked at the opposition alliance</h2>The CHP and the IYI Party have been criticizing the government's Syria policy for many years, advocating talks with Assad and peace. It is unlikely that these two parties will criticize the start of diplomatic relations and talks with Syria other than saying "we told you so, you did what we said". Past statements from the Felicity Party, the DEVA Party, and the Democrat Party have also endorsed "constructive dialog with all parties". This issue risks creating a potential rift in the opposition alliance.Future Party leader Ahmet Davutoğlu was the architect of the anti-Assad Syria policy when he was Foreign Minister and Prime Minister. He called Assad "the devil" when he was prime minister, and today he maintains the position that the regime is illegitimate, saying that "Russia is trying to legitimize the Assad regime." By making the transitional government formation in Syria a precondition for the start of the talks, he indicated that the expectation of regime change remains.&nbsp;<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Realities and expectations</h3>While it is true that the Assad regime has killed thousands of innocent people and displaced millions in the civil war, Turkey is a country that should base its foreign policy on balance and peace, prioritizing its security and economy. The facts on the ground show that Assad has achieved victory in the civil war with the support of Russia and will continue to rule. Unilaterally declaring the government of a neighboring country represented at the United Nations illegitimate means the continuation of the stalemate.&nbsp;However, the refugee crisis and the return of millions of Syrians, the establishment prevention of a possible SDF/YPG state, and the establishment of peace in opposition-held areas are problems that can only be solved by dealing with the Syrian regime.The Foreign Ministry's statement, "The process is not moving forward due to the Assad regime's foot-dragging," as well as the announcement that regime soldiers were killed in the YPG positions struck by the Turkish Armed Forces on August 16, the possibility that the US may start supporting Assad's opponents again if the YPG reconciles with Assad, and the possibility that a group of Syrians in Turkey may oppose Turkey's change of policy, reveal the complexity and difficulty of the process. This complex process requires a nuanced and decisive foreign policy strategy that is "realistic, not idealistic," both before and after the elections.&nbsp;It is expected that the opposition alliance, which is expected to nominate a joint presidential candidate to lead Turkey, will adopt a common stance on an issue such as the Syria policy, which is closely related to both national security and the economy, in a way that will not leave confusion in the society.<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Anti-Turkey protests by Turkey-backed groups</h3>Immediately after Cavusoglu's statements, anti-Turkey protests broke out in areas controlled by the Turkish-backed opposition in Syria. Demonstrations chanting "neither reconciliation nor surrender in the city of Azaz, we will overthrow the regime" resulted in the burning of Turkish flags, damage to parks built by Turkey, and stoning of Turkish Armed Forces vehicles.The Syrian National Army, which Turkey formed in 2017 by restructuring a part of the Free Syrian Army fighting against Assad, said, "The Turkish flag is sacred. Those who lay a hand on it will be punished." It was reported that some protesters were detained.<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">MHP also changed its position</h3>Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the AK Party's partner MHP, had previously said, "Those who propose talks with the murderer Assad should come to their senses," and "the Turkish nation should already plan to enter Damascus if necessary. Let Syria burn, let Idlib collapse, down with Assad." This week, Bahçeli signaled a change in his Syria policy, saying, "Our minister's constructive and realistic words on the establishment of peace between the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime are a strong breath of fresh air for the search for a permanent solution. Turkey's steps on Syria are valuable and accurate."It was learned that the leader of the Patriotic Party, Doğu Perinçek, who has supported Assad since the beginning of the war in Syria and is known for his Eurasianist views, will go to Damascus to meet with Assad together with Ethem Sancak, who resigned from the AK Party and joined his party.&nbsp;

Syrian Democratic Forces ile ilgili hikayeler