<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2024/10/0/1731860138229.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.50" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">New PM, Navinchandra Ramgoolam | Ally Soobye/Reuters<span fr-original-class="customBullet" fr-original-style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 12px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block;" style="font-size: 24px; line-height: 12px; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;">•&nbsp;&nbsp; Mauritius elections:&nbsp;Mauritius' opposition leader Navin Ramgoolam, leading the opposition coalition Alliance du Changement, was appointed as PM on Tuesday, returning to the post a decade on after his coalition won a near clean sweep of seats in parliament in a general election.

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Before the presidential elections last May that granted incumbent Erdoğan another 5 years in office, the main criticism of the vast opposition alliance was that they relied on the support of the pro-Kurdish DEM party, which the governing coalition associated with separatist terror group PKK. Understandably, Turkey's political scene is in great shock following ultranationalist coalition partner MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli's call that jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan should be engaged with politically, with some even suggesting his potential release from prison.Background:&nbsp;DEM, whose many predecessors were shut down throughout decades, was not formally in the 2023 opposition alliance but indicated that they would vote against President Erdoğan's nationalist alliance. This alliance between Erdoğan's AK Party and MHP, the ultranationalist party associated with the Grey Wolves in Europe, accused DEM of being "in bed with terrorists", namely, the separatist terror group PKK. MHP leader Bahçeli showed zero tolerance for any political actor associating with DEM Party for the party's refusal to acknowledge the PKK as a terrorist organization.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">What happened?</h2>On the first day of the new legislative year, October 1, ultranationalist MHP leader Bahçeli shook hands with DEM Party MPs —a highly unusual gesture coming from a senior politician that branded the Kurdish political movement as terrorists or terror supporters for decades.This got people talking. Why now, for what reason? In the following weeks, there was a general atmosphere of calm in Turkish politics while the general public was discussing the brutal femicides and a crime ring that profited from hospitalizing newborn babies, at certain cases causing their deaths.Bahçeli took the stage for his party's parliamentary meeting on October 22nd and said something that no one saw coming; he called for jailed PKK leader Öcalan's solitary confinement to end, for him to take part in a peace process that would end the decades-long clashes between the Turkish military and Kurdish armed forces.This, in effect, upended Turkish politics and marked a strong turning point in the narrative of governing AK Party - MHP coalition which would accuse anyone dealing with the Kurdish political movement with terrorism.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">What are people saying?</h2>Only a few days after Bahçeli's unexpected speech, jailed Öcalan was granted a visit for the first time in 43 months to gather with a family member in Imralı, the island where Öcalan is jailed. His nephew, an MP for DEM Party, related Öcalan's reply to the recent developments:<blockquote fr-original-style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(255, 225, 68); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px;" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); border-color: rgb(255, 225, 68); border-width: 4px; font-style: italic; padding-left: 10px; margin: 0px 0px 1em; border-left-style: solid; box-sizing: border-box;">"The solitary confinement is still in effect. If the necessary conditions are met, I theoretically and practically capable of carrying this process from a platform of conflict and violence to one of law and politics."</blockquote>Bahçeli's call was similarly met with cautious optimism and willingness to cooperate by other major Kurdish actors, including the current DEM Party leadership and jailed Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtaş, a popular figure.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Important note:&nbsp;Bahçeli was explicit in his speech that the peace dialogue should be carried out with Öcalan and not DEM Paty or Demirtaş.</li></ul>Nationalists who are not allied with the Erdoğan government decried the speech, accusing Bahçeli of treachery and spinelessness.The main opposition party, CHP, while careful not to be seen as siding with Erdoğan, welcomed the call for a peaceful solution to the decades-long conflict.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Potential reasons</h2>Among political analysts and the general public, 2 scenarios gained traction to explain the sudden and dramatic change regarding the governing right-wing coalition's shift in narrative regarding the Kurds.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">New constitution: Erdoğan and his coalition have been vocal for months in their desire to write a new constitution. The coalition does not have enough votes in the parliament to achieve this without some support from the opposition. Either parliamentary support or public endorsement in a referendum could help this desire for a new constitution, and making up with the Kurds could potentially be conducive to this end.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Geopolitics:&nbsp;There have been major paradigm shifts in the Middle East in the past few years: Syria's civil war, US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government, and of course, Israel's war with Iran-allied "Axis of resistance" that diminished Iran's regional influence to an extent. These set the scene for a number of ways in which its Turkey's national interest to increase political engagement with the Kurdish movement.</li></ul><h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The Ankara terror attack</h2>As politicians, journalists and pundits were trying to figure out the meaning of this sudden change, came the news that a terror attack targeted the Turkish Aerospace Industries in Ankara. The attack left 5 people dead and 22 injured. The Interior Ministry announced that the PKK was behind the attack. A subdivision of the group claimed responsibility, but the statement said that the division was "autonomous" and that the attack was unrelated to recent peace process discussions. President Erdoğan said that the assailants came from Syria, publicly diminishing PKK's political responsibility.Turkey responded to the terror attack by launching an aerial attack on terror targets in northern Syria and Iraq. Turkish Defense Ministry said 81 targets were hit and 59 terrorists "neutralized". AFP&nbsp;reported that the attacks killed 12 civilians.The political reactions to the terror attack in the capital, which could have put an early end to peace discussions, focused on the contrast created by this attack and discussions of peace. Both the right-wing coalition that initiated the new peace process and Kurdish political actors said that the attack only strengthened their resolve for a peaceful solution.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The history of &nbsp;peace talks</h2>This is not the first time that Erdoğan is taking steps to engage with the Kurdish political movement to end the decades, even centuries long conflict between the state and the Kurds. The latest peace talks started in 2013 and fell apart in 2015. ISIS had bombed a political rally attended by the Turkish left and Kurds in the Suruç province. The PKK accused the Turkish government and security forces of ignoring or potentially exasperating the ISIS threat against the Kurds, who were fighting against ISIS in Syria. PKK retaliated by killing Turkish police officers, subsequently the Turkish government launched large scale offensives on PKK targets.All of these happened after parliamentary elections where then-PM Erdoğan's AK Party, for the first time, failed to win a majority in the parliament. After the attacks that caused the peace process to end, AK Party adopted a more nationalist tone and political platform. Elections were repeated 4 months later as no party were able to form a government, and AK Party raised its number of seats in the parliament from 258 in June to 317, regaining the parliamentary majority. Since these elections, Erdoğan and the AK Party embraced the increasingly nationalist platform and later formed an alliance with the ultranationalist MHP.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">What do Kurds want?</h2>While the governing coalition could be motivated by internal or geopolitical concerns, the Kurdish political movement has its requests too. These requests, usually talked about under the term "equal citizenship" broadly includes the following:<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Language:&nbsp;The right for the Kurds to use their first language, "mother tongue", in education, health services, and other official and cultural spheres. The government does not currently recognizes Kurdish as an official language.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Political representation: A number of Kurdish political leaders are jailed, officially for the reason of associating with terror groups, namely the PKK. Furthermore, an increasingly uniform practice is for the government to appoint "kayyums" (trustees) to run municipalities won by DEM in regional elections.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Economic disparities:&nbsp;Kurdish leaders maintain that Turkey's Kurdish-populated regions receive less government support and attention, less investment for infrastructure projects, increasing the existent economic disparities.</li></ul>

The call to engage with the jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan for a new peace process came from the most unlikely place: Erdoğan's ultranationalist ally, MHP leader Bahçeli. What might this signify?

'Kurdish problem': On the eve of a new peace process?

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/ukraine-suspends-11-political-parties-with-links-to-russia" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Ukraine suspended 11 political parties</a> because of their links to Russia, including the Opposition Platform for Life, which has 44 seats in the 450-seat Ukrainian parliament and is led by Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Moscow oligarch with close ties to Vladimir Putin.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">A step back: The move comes as President Zelenskiy seeks to further assert his influence over the country's media sphere. The Ukrainian leader also signed a decree that aims to unite all national TV channels into one platform, citing the importance of a "unified information policy" under martial law.</li></ul>

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