<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2024/11/1/1734344724088.jpeg" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" width="550" ratio="1.78" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable"><h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Recalibrating US foreign policy in the Middle East</h2>As Donald Trump is set to sit in the Oval Office once again, this time facing much less resistance, the world is watching signs of what a new term would bring. Trump's general vision is understood to be a mix of "America-first", isolationism, and zero-sum confrontations with perceived threats such as China, Russia and Iran. But are these goals worth pursuing, and if they are, how consistent are they?By: Yusuf CanWashington faces a key moment in its foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East and its broader global approach. In Iraq, Gaza, and now in Syria, for decades, the US has oscillated between prioritizing short-term gains and maintaining military hegemony at the expense of long-term principles and, indeed, stability. The US's fixation on primacy has not only <a fr-original-style="" href="https://quincyinst.org/research/ending-americas-misguided-policy-of-middle-east-domination/?utm_source=chatgpt.com#executive-summary" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">destabilized</a> regions like the Middle East and helped <a fr-original-style="" href="https://quincyinst.org/research/ending-americas-misguided-policy-of-middle-east-domination/?utm_source=chatgpt.com#executive-summary" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">exacerbate</a> authoritarianism and radicalism but also eroded global trust in the US. A true paradigm shift in US foreign policy is urgently needed—one that balances national security interests but does it while ensuring international solidarity and accountability, even when it feels uncomfortable.<p contenteditable="false" fr-original-class="custom-button-wrapper fr-deletable" fr-original-style="text-align:center" style="text-align: center; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; box-sizing: border-box;"><a bgcolor="#ffe144" color="#090909" contenteditable="false" fr-original-class="custom-button-link" fr-original-style="background-color:#ffe144 !important;color:#090909 !important" href="https://aposto.com/s/recalibrating-us-foreign-policy-in-the-middle-east?a=customButton" rel="noreferrer" style="background-color: rgb(255, 225, 68) !important; color: rgb(9, 9, 9) !important; text-decoration: none; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">FULL ARTICLE</a>

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President Erdoğan, whose room for maneuver in domestic politics has shrunk due to the worsening economic crisis, social anger fuelled by illegal immigrants, falling approval ratings, and the opposition's seizure of the initiative to set the political agenda, is trying to write a success story in foreign policy by using the diplomatic advantages created for him by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Erdoğan, who is also well aware of the effect of the heroism rhetoric and relative successes in foreign policy on the partial increase in his vote rates, is endeavoring to sustain the wind of support created by diplomatic moves such as Sweden-Finland's NATO membership, the mediation attempts between Ukraine and Russia and the grain deal last month until the 2023 elections.Metropoll Research's June-July "President Erdoğan's job approval" surveys obviously show that foreign policy tensions and illusions of success have increased support for Erdoğan.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The very important Sochi meeting</h2>On 5 August, President Erdoğan met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, aiming both to find an external source that could provide short-term relief to the economic crisis and to obtain approval for an operation in Syria that would trigger national sentiments before the elections. The joint statement issued after the 4-hour-long bilateral meeting included the following expression:"The leaders, who held comprehensive consultations on the agenda of Turkey-Russia bilateral relations, agreed on increasing the trade volume between the two countries in line with the determined targets and on a balanced basis, meeting the expectations of the two countries from each other in the fields of economy and energy within the framework of reciprocity, and taking concrete steps to strengthen cooperation on issues that have long been on the agenda of the two countries in sectors such as transport, trade, agriculture, industry, finance, tourism, and construction."It was expressed that the aim is to increase the bilateral trade volume to 100 billion dollars. &nbsp;And it was announced that a memorandum of understanding was signed by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak and Trade Minister Mehmet Muş at the point of reaching this target.Another significant outcome of the visit was that Turkey and Russia agreed to use local currencies in bilateral trade and natural gas payments. The idea of using local currencies in Turkey-Russia trade as a reaction to the hegemony of the US dollar due to the increasing influence of the Eurasianist bloc in Turkish politics, the closer Turkey-Russia relations through the personal relationship between Erdogan and Putin, and the breakdown in relations with the US had been voiced by both leaders for some time. However, &nbsp;the currency crisis in Turkey and Russia's pressure to use roubles in energy imports due to the sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine paved the way for concrete steps to be taken in this regard. Considering that Turkey's trade deficit with Russia is $33 billion in favor of Russia due to energy imports, it is obvious that Russia has benefited from this agreement.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Closer trade relations with Russia and the West's reaction</h2>From Turkey's point of view, the decision to make payments in roubles is a plan to attract more tourists from Russia and to attract the Russian oligarchs' money to Turkey. When evaluated together with President Erdoğan's assertion that "5 banks have started infrastructure work on the activation of Russia's credit card system Mir in Turkey", it is seen that Russia intends to use Turkey as an exit door to circumvent Western sanctions.According to an article in the Financial Times, EU countries are closely monitoring Turkey-Russia relations and maybe call on Western companies to exit Turkey if Turkey helps Russia to circumvent sanctions. Since the beginning of the occupation, Turkey's denial to join the sanctions against Russia, blocking Sweden and Finland from joining NATO and deepening its relations with Russia, unlike other NATO member states, has led to a sharp questioning of its loyalty to NATO and the West.Given the damage done to US-Turkey relations by the alleged sanctions-busting on Iran and the ongoing Halkbank case, Turkey's role as an intermediary for Russia's sanctions-busting could cause an irreparable rupture in its relations with the West. Indeed, in a statement at the Sochi meeting, the US State Department urged Turkey not to become a haven for illicit Russian assets or transactions, saying: "We are carefully monitoring the data and so far there appears to be no evidence of illicit Russian money in Turkey."The decisions to use roubles for natural gas payments and to activate the Mir credit card system in Turkey can be seen as a relatively lucrative move for the Russian economy, which is struggling with sanctions, as well as for President Erdoğan, who is trying every way to create a short-term relief in the economy before the 2023 elections. Even before Erdogan traveled to Sochi, many experts were saying that this visit was aimed at finding foreign funding. The crisis conditions in the Turkish economy make Turkey vulnerable and open to manipulation in foreign policy as well as in domestic politics.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Seeking resources for the economic crisis&nbsp;</h2>In 2011, the AK Party government, which entered into an ideological war with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia as a result of the Arab Spring, suspended diplomatic and trade relations with the Gulf countries for nearly ten years and portrayed these countries as the financiers of the 15 July coup attempt. Erdoğan openly labeled Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a murderer after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, and with this stance, he was portrayed as a fair and strong leader in the ruling media. However, as the economic crisis, whose footsteps began to be heard in 2018, has spiraled out of control in the last year, the government's only solution to keep the economy afloat until the 2023 elections have become short-term foreign funding from Russia-China or Gulf countries. Therefore, all political disagreements and ideological fights were put aside, and the opening process with the Gulf countries started an era in which President Erdoğan sacrificed diplomatic principles to the need for foreign resources.During the meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Rosatom's $15 billion investment for the completion of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant was discussed. Aware that President Erdoğan's political career depends on the economic crisis in Turkey, Putin is using the investment issue as a trump card to keep Erdoğan in the political balance he wants. After the meeting, the transfer of 5 billion of the promised 15 billion dollars to Turkey can be read as a sign of goodwill.In his article published on T24, journalist Uğur Gürses states the following"The Central Bank's foreign exchange and gold reserves were $98.9 billion on 26 July, rising to $108.1 billion on 4 August, according to daily data. There is no doubt that much of this is 'Russian money' parked in the Central Bank indirectly through the banks."On 18 July, President Erdoğan failed to get the desired response from Iran and Russia on cross-border operation in Syria at the Astana Summit in Tehran and discussed this issue during his meeting with Putin in Sochi. Considering that the huge social anger caused by illegal immigrants and Syrian asylum seekers in domestic politics is one of the two most fundamental problems of the people along with the economic crisis, the repatriation of refugees, even if it is for the show before the 2023 elections, may stop the AK Party's loss of votes.&nbsp;Considering that every cross-border operation increases the support for the government, it seems that a cross-border operation is inevitable for the ruling party. Putin, who is aware that Erdoğan's room for maneuver on this issue is narrowing, is forcing Erdoğan to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Speaking to reporters on his return from Sochi, Erdoğan said, "Putin maintains a fair approach towards Turkey. He states that he will always be with us in the fight against terrorism. He is implying here; that 'It would be much more favorable if you prefer to solve them together with the regime as much as possible. We say that our intelligence organization is already working on these issues with Syrian intelligence, but the whole point is to get results." With these statements, he also confirmed that diplomatic contact has been established with Syria.The deepening economic crisis in Turkey is increasing vulnerabilities in foreign policy as well as in domestic politics, narrowing the government's room for maneuver. While Turkey's dependence on Russia for energy imports has already strengthened Russia's hand in bilateral relations, the need for foreign currency caused by the economic crisis leads to the disregard of other national interests in exchange for short-term resource inflows. Turkey, which has experienced a major breakdown in its relations with the US after the purchase of the S-400 air defense systems, is deepening its relations with Russia in the economic, political, and military fields, strengthening the impression that it has broken away from the Western alliance. Although Turkey's mediation role during the invasion of Ukraine and its leading role in the grain deal increased Turkey's geopolitical importance for NATO, making agreements with Russia to circumvent the sanctions imposed by Western countries, such as making natural gas payments in rubles and activating the Mir system in Turkey, could bring the frayed relations with NATO and the EU to a breaking point. At this point, although scenarios such as Turkey's expulsion from NATO do not seem realistic, we can say that a Turkey that is economically and politically excluded from the West and that has moved closer to the Russia-China axis will move further away from the ideal of being a democratic state of law.

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