By Manuel Muñiz &amp; Samir SaranMADRID/NEW DELHI – Future historians may well mark the second half of March 2023 as the moment when the era of artificial intelligence truly began. In the space of just two weeks, the world witnessed the launch of GPT-4, Bard, Claude, Midjourney V5, Security Copilot, and many other AI tools that have surpassed almost everyone’s expectations. These new AI models’ apparent sophistication has beaten most experts’ predictions by a decade.For centuries, breakthrough innovations – from the invention of the printing press and the steam engine to the rise of air travel and the internet – have propelled economic development, expanded access to information, and vastly improved health care and other essential services. But such transformative developments have also had negative implications, and the rapid deployment of AI tools will be no different.AI can perform tasks that individuals are loathe to do. It can also deliver education and health care to millions of people who are neglected under existing frameworks. And it can greatly enhance research and development, potentially ushering in a new golden age of innovation. But it also can supercharge the production and dissemination of fake news; displace human labor on a large scale; and create dangerous, disruptive tools that are potentially inimical to our very existence.Specifically, many believe that the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) – an AI that can teach itself to perform any cognitive task that humans can do – will pose an existential threat to humanity. A carelessly designed AGI (or one governed by unknown “black box” processes) could carry out its tasks in ways that compromise fundamental elements of our humanity. After that, what it means to be human could come to be mediated by AGI.Clearly, AI and other emerging technologies call for better governance, especially at the global level. But diplomats and international policymakers have historically treated technology as a “sectoral” matter best left to energy, finance, or defense ministries – a myopic perspective that is reminiscent of how, until recently, climate governance was viewed as the exclusive preserve of scientific and technical experts. Now, with climate debates commanding center stage, climate governance is seen as a superordinate domain that comprises many others, including foreign policy. Accordingly, today’s governance architecture aims to reflect the global nature of the issue, with all its nuances and complexities.As discussions at the G7’s recent summit in Hiroshima <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/20/g7-summit-artificial-intelligence-ai/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">suggest</a>, technological governance will require a similar approach. After all, AI and other emerging technologies will dramatically change the sources, distribution, and projection of power around the world. They will allow for novel offensive and defensive capabilities, and create entirely new domains for collision, contest, and conflict – including in cyberspace and outer space. And they will determine what we consume, inevitably concentrating the returns from economic growth in some regions, industries, and firms, while depriving others of similar opportunities and capabilities.Importantly, technologies such as AI will have a substantial impact on fundamental rights and freedoms, our relationships, the issues we care about, and even our most dearly held beliefs. With its feedback loops and reliance on our own data, AI models will exacerbate existing biases and strain many countries’ already tenuous social contracts.That means our response must include numerous international accords. For example, ideally we would forge new agreements (at the level of the United Nations) to limit the use of certain technologies on the battlefield. A treaty banning lethal autonomous weapons outright would be a good start; agreements to regulate cyberspace – especially offensive actions conducted by autonomous bots – will also be necessary.New trade regulations are also imperative. Unfettered exports of certain technologies can give governments powerful tools to suppress dissent and radically augment their military capabilities. Moreover, we still need to do a much better job of ensuring a level playing field in the digital economy, including through appropriate taxation of such activities.As G7 leaders already seem to recognize, with the stability of open societies possibly at stake, it is in democratic countries’ interest to develop a common approach to AI regulation. Governments are now acquiring unprecedented abilities to manufacture consent and manipulate opinion. When combined with massive surveillance systems, the analytical power of advanced AI tools can create technological leviathans: all-knowing states and corporations with the power to shape citizen behavior and repress it, if necessary, within and across borders. It is important not only to support UNESCO’s efforts to create a global framework for AI ethics, but also to push for a global Charter of Digital Rights.The thematic focus of tech diplomacy implies the need for new strategies of engagement with emerging powers. For example, how Western economies approach their partnerships with the world’s largest democracy, India, could make or break the success of such diplomacy. India’s economy will probably be the world’s <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/forecasts-show-india-may-become-world-s-third-largest-economy-by-2030/6875735.html" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">third largest</a> (after the United States and China) by 2028. Its growth has been extraordinary, much of it reflecting prowess in information technology and the digital economy. More to the point, India’s views on emerging technologies matter immensely. How it regulates and supports advances in AI will determine how billions of people use it.Engaging with India is a priority for both the US and the European Union, as evidenced by the recent US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and the EU-India Trade and Technology Council, which met in Brussels this month. But ensuring that these efforts succeed will require a reasonable accommodation of cultural and economic contexts and interests. Appreciating such nuances will help us achieve a prosperous and secure digital future. The alternative is an AI-generated free for all.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Manuel Muñiz is Provost of IE University and Dean of the IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs. Samir Saran is President of the Observer Research Foundation.<hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;">Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023. <a fr-original-style="" href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">www.project-syndicate.org</a>

Aposto Tech

The thematic focus of tech diplomacy implies the need for new strategies of engagement with emerging powers. 

AI, Democracy, and the Global Order

♻️ <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/comment-with-emissions-track-rise-by-2030-companies-urgently-need-step-up-2023-01-24/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Comment:</a> With emissions on track to rise by 2030, companies urgently need to step up climate action🪖 <a fr-original-style="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/23/europe/russia-wagner-tactics-report-ukraine-intl" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Deadly and disposable:</a> Wagner’s brutal tactics in Ukraine🏆 <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/oscar-nominations-list.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Take your seats:</a> It's time for the 2023 Oscar nominations

Aposto World

<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2023/0/0/1674409770241.png" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" width="550" alt="Markets Recap" ratio="1.98" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">Year-to-date price changes. Prices at markets close.• Global PMIs, US GDP, income and spending data, Eurozone consumer confidence, and UK PPI will be this week's highlights.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Monday EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels; ECB President Lagarde to make a speech at the Deutsche Boerse annual reception; Eurozone consumer confidence; US Conference Board leading index.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tuesday German Foreign Minister Baerbock to address the Council of Europe in Strasbourg; Global manufacturing and services flash PMIs; Germany GfK consumer confidence.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wednesday Germany Ifo business climate; UK PPI; Australia, New Zealand CPI.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Thursday US Q4 GDP, new home sales, initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, US durable goods, wholesale inventories, retail inventories</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Friday US personal income/spending; Spain GDP; Japan Tokyo CPI</li></ul>

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/fbe791c6-f6f2-4602-892c-8261ef34bedf" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">The United Arab Emirates</a> announced the appointment of Abu Dhabi oil chief Sultan al-Jaber as the president of the COP28 climate summit, which provoked a furious backlash from climate activists and civil society groups as al-Jaber leads one of the largest oil companies in the world.

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-11/cost-of-living-crisis-is-top-immediate-risk-for-davos-elite" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">The greatest risk for the global economy</a> in the near future is the cost-of-living crisis while the biggest long-term threats remain climate-related, according to the Global Risks Report published by the World Economic Forum on Wednesday. The annual poll of 1,200 government, business, and civil society professionals suggests there will be little respite in the next two years as countries grapple with "energy, inflation, food, and security crises."<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2023/0/3/1673459141545.png" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.88" width="550" alt="Global outlook" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">via Bloomberg<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Looking ahead… The WEF will hold its annual meetings next week in Davos, Switzerland, where the business, political and academic elite will share insights and start framing plans for the year ahead.</li></ul>

🪖 <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/grim-battle-bakhmut-may-yield-only-pyrrhic-victory-russia-2022-12-20/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Analysis:</a> Russia's grim battle for Bakhmut may yield pyrrhic victory at best✒️ <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/dianebrady/2022/12/20/a-week-of-consequences-for-trump-weinstein-and-musk/?sh=62005f9f2c46" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Opinion:</a> A week Of consequences for Trump, Weinstein And Musk📷 <a fr-original-style="" href="https://apnews.com/article/norway-glaciers-climate-and-environment-07730dc16eeab07675091bf6c16de1f4" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Gallery:</a> As climate clock ticks, aviator races to photograph glaciers

Aposto Science

Article by Lili Fuhr in collaboration with Project Syndicate

Debunking Solar Geoengineering

Written by Büşra Uçan,MarComm Assistant, Mazars in Turkey Though the negotiations should have been concluded on Friday November 18, the talks were extended until Sunday due to disagreements over funding. The dual issues of Ukraine and rising global inflation distracted international attention. Countries, headed by India, drew attention to the fact that the final agreement needed to reduce the use of all fossil fuels instead of just coal. Fossil fuel-rich countries in Africa did not warm to this suggestion.<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The biggest win at COP27 was the Loss and Damage Fund</h3>In the lead up to COP27, developed countries presented solutions with alternatives such as insurance and early warning systems. But developing and vulnerable countries were determined to win a new fund for their loss and damage. During the last few days of the summit, the establishment of a Loss and Damage fund was approved by consensus of all parties after the EU&nbsp;stepped forward to agree followed by the US and China.&nbsp;This decision went down in history as the biggest win of COP27. However, the controversial details of who should pay for and who will benefit from the fund, were left to next year's COP28. The delegates welcomed this climate justice breakthrough, on the basis that the carbon emissions of richer countries have contributed to the disasters that poorer nations are now facing.<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Mitigation and 1.5 Degree Target</h3>To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century, we need to mitigate emissions by 45% by 2030. Current global policies are estimated to lead to warming of about 2.7 degrees above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Even if successfully implemented, the latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) commitments will only limit warming to 2.4 degrees. To hit the 1.5-degree target, countries need to incorporate binding, long-term net zero targets into their climate action policies. According to the text of the decision from the COP27, 1.5 degrees is still the official target, but the announced emission mitigation plans are not enough to reach it. Thanks in large part to the latest global fuel crisis the discussions have only been able to result in an outcome where Parties agreed not to backtrack on the current target instead of increasing efforts to hit the target. Failure to agree on the phasing out of fossil fuels puts the 1.5-degree target at notable risk. COP26 President Alok Sharma spoke about the stress of trying to keep to commitments agreed last year and around countries attacking their achievements, stating, 'We had to work tirelessly to maintain the lines we had drawn. We have struggled to add to Glasgow's wins.' Delegates were disappointed with the delayed steps on mitigation and by the presence of lobbyists blocking a phased exit from fossil fuels. Jennifer Morgan, Germany's Special Envoy for Climate, explained why they agreed to the final version of the agreement despite the absence of a clause for stricter emission reductions in the agreement, noting that they '...wanted to be on the side of the most vulnerable countries.'<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/11/5/1670583251271.png" style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" width="550" ratio="1.92" fr-original-style="display: block; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">Source: <a fr-original-style="" href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/</a><h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Adaptation and Resilience</h3>Last year, we witnessed the disasters caused by climate change in our daily news feed from every corner of the globe. Unfortunately, as global warming continues to increase, disasters will continue to increase exponentially. Countries that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change must build resilience, developing tools to adapt and cope.The issue of adaptation has thus disconnected from Loss and Damage as a key issue discussed COP27. Experts warn that mitigation targets alone will not be enough to combat climate change. COP27 called on governments and the business community to adapt and avoid the cost of inaction. The development of a framework for monitoring progress on global adaptation measures and to double the funding for adaptation were agreed in the final text of the COP27 conference.<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Energy Transition and Fossil Fuels</h3>The demands of India&nbsp;and other countries that the COP27 final text include a phased reduction of the use of 'all fossil fuels' were not met. Instead, it called on countries to take further steps to 'phase out any coal power that lacks carbon sequestration technology, and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies,' which was the same language agreed at the previous Glasgow&nbsp;summit. In short, the text did not move beyond the COP26 rhetoric of phasing out coal. The text of the COP27 agreement also refers to 'energy with low carbon emissions', i.e., natural gas, and the concern is that this will lead to an increased use of natural gas which emits both carbon dioxide and methane. The use of green hydrogen was highlighted an opportunity for some developing countries to export on the path to decarbonization. However, the pipelines have yet to be developed.At COP27, countries agreed that a 'fair and equal energy transition' should be based on national development priorities and include social protection and solidarity measures, such as providing retraining programs and support for coal workers affected by the transition. Another key decision taken was to create a work program founded on a just transition and to hold an annual round table meeting at ministerial level as part of this process.Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan,&nbsp;the leader of the United Arab Emirates, which will host next year's COP28 climate summit, said his country would continue to provide oil and gas 'as long as the world needs it.'Maldives Climate Minister Aminath Shauna said, 'I appreciate the progress we have made at COP27. However, we have failed at mitigation. We need to phase out fossil fuels.'<h3 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Climate finance</h3>Developed countries made more commitments on climate finance at COP27 including multilateral agreements for loss and damage, adaptation, coal transition, but they have been unable to deliver on promises to provide US$ 100 billion annually for vulnerable and developing countries.The idea that public financing should be deployed in a way that complements and paves the way for private financing has gained traction. There is now growing pressure for the reform of global financial institutions such as the World Bank and IMF, to respond to the climate crisis. The need to fund climate adaptation has moved to the center stage, but there is still a serious funding gap as only 10% of the US$410-560 billion financing needs were met in 2020. As public scrutiny increases and recommendations for net-zero commitments become more stringent, there are significant transitions in planning for the implementation of commitments.

Aposto Business

COP27's Five Important Outcomes

First Week's Focus on Finance

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://apnews.com/article/g-20-summit-business-india-climate-and-environment-47dc8ef744d87e0c2e01b2ad31655345" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">India</a> officially stepped into its new role as G-20 chair for 2023 and is putting climate at the top of the group's priorities with programs to encourage sustainable living and money for countries to transition to clean energy, along with dealing with the effects of climate change.

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