The 15th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) Summit convened in Johannesburg, South Africa. While the final declaration of the Johannesburg Summit may not yield immediate results, it holds critical long-term importance. During the summit, the current BRICS members made significant decisions concerning the future and evolution of the BRICS group.Notably, discussions about expanding the BRICS membership, with a focus on India, were initially met with hesitations. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement expressing support for increasing the number of BRICS members helped dispel these hesitations.The foundations of the BRICS project, once rumored to include Turkey and even be renamed as BRICS-T, were established in the aftermath of the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan following the September 11 attacks. During this period, American economist Jim O'Neill predicted that rising powers like China, India, Brazil, and Russia would assume significant roles in the future. Russia embraced this perspective and initiated cooperation with these countries. The first BRICS meeting was convened in 2006.The current BRICS countries collectively account for 40% of the world's population, a stark contrast to the industrialized G7 countries, which represent only 10% of the global population. Furthermore, this economic alliance constitutes a quarter of the world's total GDP.Should oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria, and countries with substantial populations such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Egypt join the BRICS, the alliance has the potential to strengthen even further.The world financial crisis of 2008 shook the existing system and increased interest in alternatives. The BRIC countries (South Africa had not yet joined the Union at the time) came together for the second time to demand a fairer global economic order. In the process, despite the differences between the member countries, the BRICS countries began to gain economic and political power.The fact that Turkey is not mentioned among the new members of BRICS clearly shows what kind of foreign policy and international trade system it should aim for.Surprise Interest Rate DecisionOn August 24, 2023, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey convened under the leadership of Hafize Gaye Erkan and made a surprising policy rate adjustment. They increased the rate by 750 basis points (bps), raising it from 17.5 percent to 25 percent. Prior to the meeting, the market's median expectation for a rate hike was 250 bps. This unexpected decision by the MPC underscores their strong determination to raise interest rates.In our previous bulletins, we emphasized that the more the Simsek-Erkan duo departed from President Erdoğan's 'interest rates are the cause, and inflation is the effect' narrative, the greater their chances of success. Otherwise, the credibility of economic and financial management could be compromised. In fact, the interest rate hikes in the two prior meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee fell short, leading to a significant credibility issue for this team.Subsequently, three renowned and competent economists were appointed as deputy governors of the Central Bank. The fact that this rate hike became possible after their appointments undoubtedly had a positive impact on their credibility. <hr fr-original-style="" style="height: 0px; overflow: visible; border-bottom: none; clear: both; user-select: none; break-after: page; box-sizing: border-box;"> 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Frvv-9U4oxo2 &nbsp;Venedik Komisyonu, Türk Ceza Kanunu’nun (TCK) 216., 299., 301. ve 314. Maddelerine İlişkin Rapor, 2016, https://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/?pdf=CDL-AD(2016)002-e , ayrıca bkz. Venedik Komisyonu, Son Dönemde Çıkarılan Kanun Hükmünde Kararnamelerde Yer Alan Medya Özgürlüğüne İlişkin Tedbirler Hakkında Görüş, CDL-AD(2017)007, 10-11 Mart 2017.3 Dunja Mijatovic, Türkiye Ülke Raporu, Şubat, 2020, https://rm.coe.int/avrupa-konseyi-insan-haklari-komiseri-dunja-mijatovic-1-5-temmuz-2019-/16809c51874 Avrupa Komisyonu, Türkiye Raporu 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/sites/near/files/turkey_report_2020.pdf5 Ömür Çağdaş Ersoy/ Türkiye, no. 19165/19, 15.06.20216 Işıkırık/Türkiye, no. 41226/09, 14.11.2017; Bakır ve Diğerleri/ Türkiye, no. 46713/10, 10.7.2018; İmret/ Türkiye (no 2), no. 57316/10, 10.7.2018; Zülküf Murat Kahraman/ Türkiye, no. 65808/10, 16.7.2019; Daş/ Türkiye, no. 36909/07, 2.7.2019.7 Parmak ve Bakır/ Türkiye, no. 22429/07 25195/07, 03.12.2019, para.77.8 Vedat Şorli/Türkiye, no. 42048/19, 19.10.20219 Altuğ Taner Akçam/Türkiye, no. 27520/07 , 25.10.2011.10 Selahattin Demirtaş/ Türkiye (no.2) [GC], no. 14305/17, 22.12.2020.

The Freedom Observer

The fact that Turkey is not mentioned among the new members of BRICS clearly shows what kind of foreign policy and international trade system it should aim for.

BRICS Expansion Process and Turkey

While Turkey was trying to heal the wounds of the February 6 earthquake, it also witnessed new political developments that affected the balance between the government and the opposition on the eve of the -sidential and parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, the government continues to respond to criticisms leveled at its negligence and failure to cope with the devastation and suffering caused by the earthquake. As detailed below, the government imposed new bans aimed at destroying the last remnants of the already severely restricted freedom of expression.The aforementioned development, which could affect the political balances on the eve of the elections, came from the İYİ Party leader Meral Akşener, right after the opposition alliance (Table for Six) announced that they had determined the presidential candidate -which is considered to be CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Akşener is trying to get one of the Istanbul or Ankara Metropolitan Mayors to become the opposition presidential candidate in the hope that she will facilitate her goal of becoming the prime minister in the promised parliamentary system.Since Akşener has no chance to realize this goal after her exit from the Table for Six, she will have to look for a new strategy that will bring her and her party to an advantage in the coming weeks. Although it is not clear for now how this move of the İYİ Party will affect the general political landscape and the balance between the ruling bloc and the opposition, it can be predicted that Turkish politics is open for new developments in the coming days.Meanwhile, the bans on some religious publications, which are among the government's pressures on freedom of expression mentioned at the beginning, have also led to new doubts about the nature of the regime in Turkey. As a matter of fact, upon the request of the Presidency of Religious Affairs (DİB), the prevention and seizure of the translation of the Qur'an written by a theologian on the grounds that it violates the basic principles of the religion of Islam is a heavy pressure on freedom of expression, as well as a constitutional violation of the Republic of Turkey. This move by the government also contradicts the principle of secularism. Moreover, it would not be surprising to encounter such prohibitions in the future as long as this legislation remains in force.We learned from this last incident that the AKP government, by making an addition to the founding Law of the DIB with a decree in 2018, granted this institution a monopolistic authority to determine the meaning and interpretation of the Qur'an. This situation, in one aspect, means that Islam has become almost the established religion, and in another aspect, the Presidency of Religious Affairs has been given a church-like status.While all of this is going on, the avalanche of problems caused by the AKP government that have deepened and led to a crisis of political legitimacy remains on the agenda.&nbsp;These include the economic crisis that is racing to the bottom, severe degradation of the law, justice, and fundamental freedoms, and the state’s - and the government - &nbsp;maintaining its security-oriented approach to the Kurdish problem. All these problems together with the DİB’s monopoly over the interpretation of Islam that is in clear violation of secularism and human rights, and those related to the reconstruction and urban transformation caused by the earthquake, await the new government and parliament that will be formed after the elections.Stay tuned, and see you in the next issue.

The Republic of Turkey, ruled by the AK Party-MHP coalition, is going through a period of chaos with the biggest economic, political, and social crises in its history. The only key out of this collapse process, in which inflation rates announced by the government exceed 80%, millions of irregular migrants pose a threat to social stability, rfar-right &nbsp;and racist movements are getting stronger. And citizens are unable to meet their basic needs like housing seems to be the general elections scheduled for 2023 (unless there is a snap election in the autumn). The AK Party, which has been in power since 2002, together with its ruling partner MHP, is waiting for the end of its political life and is unable to find solutions to the country's current crisis.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Opposition in the process of democracy alliance</h2>One of the most powerful strategies for changing the government and rebuilding the democratic regime in an electoral authoritarian system like Turkey, the opposition's ability to come together and form an alliance has been possible for some time now, due to the stable political agenda of the opposition alliance. Opposition allianc members are at different ends of the political spectrum, the CHP, the Democratic Party, the DEVA Party, the Future Party, the IYI Party, and the Felicity Party. But they are trying to build new politics around common values, ignoring their dissimilarities, at least for a while, with the cognition that this alliance is the only way to change the authoritarian regime and build a new regime that is firmly committed to the founding values of the democratic republic.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/6/5/1659099887790.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">BBC TurkishAlthough the opposition alliance claims to represent different ideologies and social components across the political spectrum, it has been doubtful since its inception to officially or unofficially include the Kurdish movement, one of the most powerful political movements in Turkey, and thus the HDP, in the alliance. The HDP has a remarkable place in Turkish politics with its 10-12% vote share and its power of representation among Kurdish voters. As Turkey is heading towards the most significant elections in its history, the 10-12% voting rate represented by the HDP is vital for the opposition alliance aiming to win the elections. In the 7 June 2015 elections, HDP passed the threshold and took away the AK Party's power to rule alone. The party maintains its critical place in Turkish politics for the 2023 elections.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Politics confined to the discourse of security and survival</h2>The AK Party-MHP coalition, which is either the creator or one of the causes of every crisis Turkey is currently experiencing, cannot solve any problem like every government that has completed its political life. But they conduct politics based on the management of perceptions to continue their existence. While creating a political atmosphere in which society has polarised around race, sect, and political views, every field of politics has securitized through the discourse of national security and survival, and the living spaces of different political views and opposing voices have narrowed systematically. The security discourse has been created through two terrorist organizations: FETÖ (Gülenist Terrorist Organization) and PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party).In general terms, all opposition voices raised against the government are engraved as FETÖ members and excluded from the legal framework, while the HDP is identified with the PKK and isolated from both society and the political arena. In almost all political debates, pro-government journalists, People's Alliance deputies, and senior politicians labeled citizens who complain about the economy and opposition deputies as FETÖ members or "provocateurs fed by foreign powers." &nbsp;It's creating a political atmosphere in which neither political nor economic problems can be discussed in the public sphere and which is confined within the security discourse.The fact that the opposition alliance keeps its relations with the HDP at a minimum level despite its vital importance for winning the 2023 elections, and its open statements that no official alliance will be entered into, also fragments the opposition bloc as a barbed wire created by the securitized political atmosphere.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">A new vision for the opposition</h2>Selahattin Demirtaş said, "AKP is a structure that makes politics based on perceptions rather than facts. It uses this method more frequently and recklessly, especially during election periods. Even if the opposition produces so strong and concrete projects and fact-based politics, it cannot reach large masses without breaking the perceptions created by the AKP." Demirtaş clearly defines the AKP's politics based on perceptions.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/6/5/1659099952131.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.60" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">T24"HDP is not an extension, spokesperson, or supporter of the PKK. It has no ties with the PKK. We must be able to explain this to the Turkish public. A party conducting democratic politics cannot have ties with an armed organization.What I am saying for HDP is that it should endeavor to make its line more visible. A significant part of society lives in division fear, weapons, violence, and terror. The government is constantly scratching these fears and directing anger toward HDP. Therefore, the HDP has turned into a scapegoat."<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Concern about creating space for "doves"</h2>As I have mentioned before, Demirtaş's clear distancing between the HDP and the PKK not only tries to create a new space by freeing politics from security and survival discourses but also tries to disable the political strategy of the government based on perception management and polarization. The strategy of purging the HDP's moderate politicians, especially Demirtaş, from the political arena and sending them to prisons, while leaving the more radical and PKK sympathizers outside, has long been one of the main tactics of the current government to isolate the HDP politically and prevent a possible alliance between the opposition parties. With this discourse, Demirtaş is also concerned about breaking the political influence of the hawks within the HDP and creating more space for the doves."We have to convincingly explain that we do not have an agenda of division.""To get out of this bind, it would be appropriate for the HDP to give more messages of unity and peace, and to make its policies in this direction concrete and visible. If necessary, we have to convey that we will bring internal peace to the country several times a day, convey our policies that will permanently end violence, convincingly explain that we do not have an agenda of division, and bring the whole society together around the feelings of peace and brotherhood.""We should never use the language of anger because the attacks against us are intense and ruthless, and we should not be caught up in feelings of political revenge. Instead of saying, "They did this to us, they said that to us, so we will get tougher," we should resolutely resist on the democratic grounds of legitimate struggle."His words aim to bring a new discourse and paradigm to both Kurdish politics and the HDP. Recognizing that politics based on victimization and revenge for the past does not bring any benefit to Turkey, the perception that all our problems can only be solved through the construction of a democratic regime brings both voters and opposition parties a concrete answer to the question of which foundations the new Turkey will be built.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Is it possible to form an inclusive alliance among the opposition parties?</h2>The opposition alliance, which have established with the aim of transition to a strengthened parliamentary system and the reconstruction of a democratic regime, stands as the only option to change the authoritarian regime created by the AK Party-MHP coalition. Although there is an ever-increasing success rate in the surveys and in determining the political agenda, two significant issues seem to regulate the fate of both the alliance and the elections: The joint candidate and the alliance with the HDP.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/6/5/1659099993256.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">T24Although there are various speculations about the joint candidate, there is still no certainty. The only fact we know is that "a person who will cover all segments of the society and who understands the economy" will be the candidate as described by CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. But how inclusive will this joint candidate be? For example, will he also represent the HDP? Demirtaş makes the following statement about the joint candidate:"Our Co-Chairs have repeatedly given the message that we are open to the idea of a joint candidate. It is the official policy of the party and we will insist on a joint candidate until the last moment. If not, HDP will enter the elections with its candidate. What else can we do?The opinions and suggestions of not only the HDP but also left parties outside the parliament, professional chambers, trade unions, women's organizations, bar associations, and environmental organizations should be taken into consideration so that the joint candidate can be the joint candidate of the society."Of course, for the opposition alliance and the HDP to field a joint presidential candidate, an alliance must first be formed. To prevent this scenario, which is its biggest fear, the People's Alliance is putting all its trump cards on the field. Both the fact that the conservative-right-leaning parties within the opposition alliance do not favor such an alliance because they think that it would cost them votes and the systematic criminalization of the HDP lead to the conclusion that such an alliance is not possible in the short term.Selahattin Demirtaş also said, "Under the current conditions, institutional cooperation between the table of six (opposition allinace) and the HDP-centred opposition does not seem likely. The main reason for it is the perceptions produced by the AKP and the failure of the opposition to respond to these perceptions with a bold move for change. Of course, the opposition alliance is not solely responsible for this. The HDP also has shortcomings and responsibilities. It does no one any good to stick the needle into everyone without first sticking the needle into ourselves," he blames the failure to establish the alliance on the AK Party, not the opposition, and creates an opportunity for HDP to self-criticize.In particular, the sympathies of radical figures within the HDP towards the PKK and their rejection of the party's Turkeyification (party's moving away from particular focus on Kurdish ethnic nationalism) strategy constitute a fundamental obstacle to the alliance between the opposition alliance and the HDP. Demirtaş's statement "let's stick the needle in ourselves first" is an open call to the party to liquidate the radical figures within the HDP or to withdraw politically. Such a restructuring process within the HDP will also prepare a powerful ground for the collapse of the AK Party's strategy of perceptions.HDP has to break down all legal or illegal ties with the terrorist organization, which has inflicted wounds on Turkish society that are very difficult to close and cost the lives of thousands of people. And the silencing of all voices within the party can be called PKK propaganda, the HDP needs to adopt a political approach that can embrace all segments of society and open up space for a possible alliance with opposition parties.<h2 fr-original-style="" style="margin: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-weight: 500; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The opposition has a more difficult task than winning the election</h2>"Wherever we expect respect for our sensitivities, we have to show the necessary respect for the sensitivities of others.If we expect a Kurdish opening from the other opposition, we, as HDP, need to make a Turkish opening. We need to embrace all of Turkey with self-confidence, without letting our victim identity lead us into a psychology of oppression or anger.If the opposition continues to surrender to perceptions despite our correct moves, we will have the right to stick them with the stick then."Demirtaş's discourse on Turkeyification offers a new road map for the opposition parties for the construction of a democratic and inclusive regime. Evaluating different segments of society, especially Kurdish voters, only based on vote rates may help to win the elections. But it will not contribute to the construction of a democratic and inclusive regime. Moving politics away from the discourses of survival and security, discussing all social and political issues in the public sphere, and building a political understanding in which society's all segments will be represented is a more difficult and significant task for the opposition than winning the elections. The opposition, which claims to undertake this historic task, needs to build a new politics by breaking stereotyped fears and prejudices. We are hoping for a new Turkey where doves will prevail over hawks in society and politics.

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