As in the previous Bulletin, the tense relations between the government and the opposition are at the forefront of the political agenda. At least until the elections, this situation is less likely to change. Before delving into this subject, we need to touch on a new development that concerns all of us as citizens of Turkey.The latest "Human Freedom Index", prepared by two think-tanks (Cato Institute and Fraser Institute) based in North America, was announced on January 27. Accordingly, Turkey has gradually declined from 7.06 points in 2010, when it achieved the highest score in terms of general freedom level, to 5.71 points by 2022 and has fallen to 130th place among 165 countries.Since Turkey's score in 2018 (reflecting the 2017 data) is almost the same (5.72), the current data of 5.71 means that the state of emergency still continues, even though it has been officially lifted. With this score, Turkey lags behind 26th in Armenia, 28th in [South] Cyprus, 43rd in Georgia, 87th in Kyrgyzstan, 107th in Kazakhstan, 113th in Tunisia and Kuwait, 119th place in Russia, and 129th in Qatar.In addition, according to these data, Turkey received the lowest grade for "freedom of expression and information" with a score of 3.0, which is also below its general average. Turkey's "rule of law" score is similarly on the ground with 3.8 points.Indeed, this embarrassingly poor record of our country on freedom and human rights is not surprising to us as citizens. The President of the Turkish Medical Association (TTB) and forensic expert, Prof. Dr. Şebnem Korur Fincancı, was the latest victim and an example of the government’s poor record in the human rights index. As we witnessed that Prof. Fincancı was sentenced to 2 years, 8 months, and 15 days in prison in the case where she was charged with "propagandizing for a terrorist organization" for saying that the allegations of using chemical weapons in the operations carried out by the Turkish army in Northern Iraq should be investigated by independent committees.On the other hand, "Law No. 7418 on Amendments to the Press Law and Certain Laws", which was adopted by the Parliament in October last year and stipulated that those who spread "false information" are punished with imprisonment from 1 to 3 years, brought a new set of restrictions on the freedom of expression and press. These and similar regulations and judicial decisions based on them show that the above-mentioned statistics by the international organizations regarding the poor performance of freedom of expression in Turkey is, unfortunately, correct. This Law also exposes non-governmental organizations to the risk of being tried for up to three years in prison due to the opinions expressed on their platforms.Behind other developments that spoiled Turkey's record, there lies the series of unconstitutional contradictions brought up by Tayyip Erdoğan's intention to run for the presidency for the third time and to decide on the re-election of the Turkish Grand National Assembly. If it takes place, this attempt will violate both the provision of the Constitution that a person can be a candidate for the presidency "at most twice" and the exceptional rule that the third time candidacy is possible only if the legislature decides to renew the elections while the president is in his second term in office.Since all constitutional powers are under the control or tutelage of the president in the current system, it seems that there is no constitutional body or office - including the judicial one - to prevent these constitutional violations. The opposition, on the other hand, seems to be unwilling to take any action to prevent the president despite expressing this contradiction, probably in the hope that they can defeat Tayyip Erdoğan in the elections - and with the thought that this is more appropriate politically.This is not the only obstacle that the main wing of the opposition, which came together at the "Table for Six", might face on the way to the general elections. The trap that the ruling bloc set for the opposition under the name of "liberating the headscarf" is about to be activated. As a matter of fact, the opposition's motion to make the ruling parties' proposal compatible with human rights was rejected by the representatives of the government in the Constitutional Commission. In this case, it seems that the AKP-MHP ruling bloc plans to put the opposition candidate in hot water in the presidential election by ensuring that their proposals are put to a referendum without any change and by making propaganda that the opposition is against the "freedom of the headscarf".Meanwhile, the lawsuit filed at the Constitutional Court for the closure of the Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP) apparently continues in line with the expectations of the ruling bloc. The Supreme Court unanimously rejected the request of the respondent party to leave the proceedings of the case until after the election. Meanwhile, considering that the defendant Party will make an oral defense on March 14, it seems highly likely that the case will be decided before the elections and will result in a decision of "deprivation of treasury aid".Speaking of the judiciary, it should be pointed out that the President of the Supreme Court Mehmet Akarca's criticisms that the Constitutional Court overstepped its authority by turning "individual applications" into a kind of appeal review and adopted a "judicial activist" attitude. It should be noted that this statement of the President of the Supreme Court is not pleasant not only in terms of its political meaning but also in terms of the President's own dignity. By doing so, the President wants to show that he stands by the political power against the Constitutional Court, which he sees as a rival. This outburst may also damage the President's own legal identity by making claims that have no legal basis. This, in turn, might give the impression that he does not have enough knowledge about the legal nature of the issue on which he makes such claims.In the meantime, while it has been a common belief for some time that the Turkish Statistical Institute has been one of the institutions most affected by the corruption caused by the oppressive and favoritism politics in recent years, especially due to the unreliable inflation rates it has announced, now the statements made on behalf of the Central Bank put this institution also in the same category. As a matter of fact, judging by the President's unconvincing statement on January 26, the Central Bank has completely abandoned its main task of ensuring price stability and has undertaken the task of supporting political power just on the eve of the general elections. Indeed, according to President Kavcıoğlu's statement, inflation will decrease to 22% at the end of 2023 and to around 9% at the end of 2024. On the other hand, Turkey's energy costs will decrease in 2023, as energy costs will decrease both due to the decrease in prices and as a result of the domestic natural gas resources being put into service in March, and thus, the budget will be able to give a current surplus!See you in the next Bulletin.

The Freedom Observer

Foreign policy in the AKP programThe AKP states in its program that Turkey's location is a magnet for many collaborations and that the use of this potential ‘depends on the wise use of geopolitics.’ Turkey needs to reorganise its relations with power centres in an ‘alternative, flexible, and multi-axis’ manner while claiming that ‘the quality of military alliances and blocs as the determining factor of international relations has significantly diminished’, even though the opposite is true today, especially after Russia invading Ukraine and the NATO’s role getting bigger.The governing party promises ‘a realistic foreign policy based on mutual interest relations.’ Instead of relying solely on the bureaucracy for foreign policy decision-making and implementation, the party also aims to involve parliament and society. Turkey, ‘an element of regional stability with its democracy, economy, and respect for human rights,’ will take more initiative to resolve crises and increase efforts to maintain good relations with its neighbours, based on dialogue.Good relations with European countries and the European Union will be established, ‘the conditions for EU membership will be met as soon as possible, and the agenda will be prevented from being occupied with artificial problems.’ It is stated that cooperation with the US will continue, with an emphasis on defense, and that there will be more cooperation in the fields of economy, investment, science, and technology, and that ‘friendly relations based on cooperation rather than competition’ will be established with Russia. ‘In addition to the traditional Atlantic and European dimensions of Turkish foreign policy, efforts to develop a Eurasian-oriented policy will continue.’ It is said that closer relations will be established with China and the dynamic economies of Asia.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670749479822.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.51" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">Daily SabahWith Greece, it is stated that ‘relations based on economic interests will continue to increase, and the environment of trust that these relations will create will prepare the ground for the solution of more complex political problems.’ It is argued that the solution in Cyprus should be based on a compromise between the two states.The AKP advocates the development of relations with the Central Asian Turkic Republics. It is said that ‘special importance’ will be given to relations with Islamic countries and that efforts will be made for the Organization of the Islamic Conference to gain a more reputable place in the international arena.It is stated that new areas of cooperation have emerged in the Black Sea and the Caucasus with the end of the Cold War. Some say that Turkey will try to contribute to the economic integration of the Caucasus, which has underground and aboveground resources, with the Middle East and the Balkans.Efforts will also be made to further protect the rights of Turkish citizens living abroad.Practical differences&nbsp;Although the AKP claimed to have a realist foreign policy vision, it pursued an anti-realist idealist foreign policy at the expense of not maximising Turkey's national interests, especially in the process that started with the Arab Spring. This ‘pan-Islamist’ idealism became unsustainable when the coup that overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt turned into a permanent government, and the Assad regime in Syria did not fall. Turkey has become an isolated country in its region due to the AKP's idealistic foreign policy that is detached from reality. It has become so hard to protect its rights and interests, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean.President Erdoğan's demand for a meeting with Bashar al-Assad, whom he criticised with harsh words years ago, and severed all diplomatic relations with, or with Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, with whom he recently shook hands, or his role as a mediator in the invasion of Ukraine by differentiating himself from Western countries and pursuing a policy that does not put his interests at risk, can be considered as the clearest indicators of the return from idealism to realism.&nbsp;<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670749512908.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">BBCTurkey has become the country with the highest inflation rate in Europe under the AKP rule. It ranked 147th out of 179 countries in the latest Democracy Report of the Gothenburg University Institute for Varieties of Democracy. In 2021, 22% of all applications to the European Court of Human Rights for human rights violations were related to Turkey. As a result, Turkey has moved far away from the AKP program's claim to be ‘an element of regional stability with its democracy, economy, and respect for human rights’ and to take the initiative in regional crises.While it is possible to say that the AKP's foreign policy towards Russia, the Caucasus, and Eurasia is consistent in practice, it is impossible to talk about an effort to complete the EU membership requirements. On the contrary, relations between the EU and Turkey are experiencing one of the coldest periods in history. Opposing the program, it is also difficult to talk about an effort to improve relations with the US and Greece. On the other hand, given the attitudes of the EU, the US, and Greece towards Turkey, it would be unfair to the ruling party to explain this situation solely by the AKP's policies.Foreign policy in the MHP program&nbsp;The MHP program also emphasises the importance of Turkey's geostrategic position. It advocates a ‘realistic, Turkey-centred, and multifaceted foreign policy based on a national strategy based on mutual interest.’Addressing the issue of foreign policy in more detail than the AKP in its program, the MHP defines the goal of its foreign policy as ‘protecting and developing Turkey's national security and national interests; creating a belt of peace, stability, and security around us; establishing relations based on mutual respect and mutual benefit with all countries, especially our neighbours; finding fair and lasting solutions to existing problems within the framework of international law by protecting Turkey's rights and interests.’While aiming for Turkey to be a strong, respected, trusted, listened to, and sought-after country, it is emphasised that ‘respect for national culture, territorial integrity, and unitary state structure’ is a red line. It underlines the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, and demands ‘a foreign policy with personality that takes into account not only commercial but also historical and cultural dimensions’.Like the AKP, the MHP advocates Turkey's leadership in increasing cooperation between the Caucasus, the Balkans, and the Middle East, while opposing ‘global projects that destabilise the region and bring blood and tears.’ What these projects are is not explained in the program.The party advocates a deterrent foreign policy within the framework of legitimacy ‘against countries that carry historical enmities against Turkey into the present and target Turkey's national interests.’ However, the party does not explain which countries are hostile to Turkey, nor what deterrent foreign policy means.The priority area of interest of the foreign policy is defined as the Turkic world, and it is aimed to develop and deepen economic, social, political, and cultural relations with Cyprus, the Caucasus, Central-Asian Turkic Republics, and Balkan countries.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670749552156.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.79" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">TürkgünUnlike the AKP, the MHP characterises Cyprus as Turkey's ‘most important national cause.’ It argues that the only realistic solution on the island is a two-nation, two-state structure and closes the door to the idea of federation.The party sees the need for a redefinition of relations with the EU but opposes the idea that the issue is a ‘question of identity and destiny’ for Turkey. It underlines that Turkey ‘does not need to be dragged into the EU orbit’. However, if the EU observes Turkey's sensitivities on national unity, terrorism, separatism, Cyprus, Greece, and Armenia; it would be reasonable to continue partnership negotiations.It is advocated that relations with the US should be ‘carried out based on equality and reciprocity in a way to serve the mutual interests of both sides in economic, political, and security dimensions,’ and that joint economic projects should be developed with Russia, Iran, Balkan, and Middle Eastern countries based on peace, stability, and regional cooperation and that a dynamic economic cooperation environment should be created with African, Far East, and South East Asian countries. The MHP calls this approach a ‘multilateral foreign policy.’Special emphasis is placed on the territorial integrity of Iraq, and the importance of ‘protecting the rights of the Turkmen presence in Iraq and preventing Iraqi territory from posing a security threat to Turkey’ are underlined. In the face of the terrorist threat to Turkey from Iraqi territory, it is stated that ‘Turkey will use its rights arising from international law to eliminate terrorist elements.’MHP's decisive influenceIt is evident from the programs of the two parties that the fact that the MHP, which has a comprehensive foreign policy program, has become a partner in the government has led to changes in Turkey's foreign policy. It can be said that the MHP, which emphasises a ‘realist’ foreign policy, has been instrumental in bringing the government back to a realist line.<img src="https://images.aposto.com/2022/11/0/1670749577085.jpeg" style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px; border-style: none; position: relative; cursor: pointer; padding: 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box;" ratio="1.88" width="550" fr-original-style="display: block; float: none; vertical-align: top; margin: 5px auto; text-align: center; width: 100%; max-width: 550px;" fr-original-class="fr-draggable">İHAMoreover, the MHP, whose sensitivity to the Cyprus issue is reflected in its program, can also be interpreted as having played a role in the AKP's insistence on a two-state solution, which had once supported the establishment of a federative structure in Cyprus with the Annan Plan. The MHP also played a role in the AKP's pursuit of a deterrent foreign policy in the Middle East through cross-border campaigns, its failure to advance EU accession negotiations, and its strong support for Azerbaijan in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.Finally, it is significant to note that neither party has included the Syria policy, which closely concerns Turkey's national security, nor the Libya policy, which concerns Turkey's interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, in its programs. &nbsp;

Spektrum

Bartu Özden

How do the AK Party and MHP view foreign policy?

Soli

        

"Being from Pera is as much about nostalgia, respect, and sadness for the past as it is about a great joy of living in the present and an incorrigible optimism for the future."

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-25/cyprus-gas-discoveries-boosted-by-eu-move-from-russia-supplies" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Cyprus’ Aphrodite gas field</a> is a potential source for export to Europe as the EU moves away from Russian natural gas, according to Cypriot energy minister Natasa Pilides. Chevron plans to drill a new well in the field off the island's southern coast in early 2023 and is expected to start gas production in 2027. Aphrodite is estimated to hold 125 billion cubic meters of untapped gas.

Aposto World

⚡️ Lightning Round<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-government-survive-no-confidence-vote/" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Sweden's Justice Minister</a> Morgan Johansson narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in parliament that could otherwise have led the country towards another crisis, as the PM had said the whole government would resign if Johansson lost parliament's support, just as it seeks to join NATO.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/07/cyprus-accuses-turkey-of-wanting-complete-control-of-separatist-north" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Cyprus accused Turkey</a> of seeking full control over the separatist north of the island, and will file a formal complaint to the UN, Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades said. He said that Turkey's new financial deal with Turkish Cypriots along with changes to air travel demonstrated their desire to have complete control of the Turkish Cypriots.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/07/ukraine-war-has-delayed-bosnian-serbs-breakaway-plans-says-dodik" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik</a> said Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its effect have delayed nationalists' plan to break away from Bosnia's national institutions.</li></ul>

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-politics-africa-4d0fbfe2b121a4d015be09407e883a95" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> said he is ready to support the smooth export of Ukrainian grain via the country's Black Sea ports in a meeting with the African Union, where Senegal’s President and chairman Macky Sall said the war and Western sanctions had worsened the food shortages in Africa.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">What happened: African countries imported 44% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine between 2018 and 2020, and wheat prices rose around 45% as a result of the supply disruption. President Sall added that a grain shortage could affect 1.4 billion people and trigger mass migration.</li><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">On a related note: The EU’s Mediterranean nations called for an end to the bloc's “voluntary” solidarity principle for migration with demands to install concrete measures instead. Interior Ministers from Italy, Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Spain <a fr-original-style="" href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/06/05/eu-interior-ministers-concrete-measures-needed-as-hunger-might-bring-more-migrants-from-af" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">concluded talks</a> in Venice amid fears that a grain shortage could lead to an increase in the numbers of refugees from Africa.</li></ul>

• <a fr-original-style="" href="https://amp.ft.com/content/b8d1cf4f-5160-4666-aae3-73f9d9ae7c0f" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color: rgb(9, 9, 9); text-decoration: none; background-color: transparent; outline: none; cursor: pointer; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; touch-action: manipulation; user-select: auto; box-sizing: border-box;" target="_blank">The ECB</a> uncharacteristically appointed a temporary administrator to RCB, a subsidiary of Russian VTB Bank, as the Cyprus bank carries out the gradual ending of its banking operations.<ul fr-original-style="padding-inline-start: 20px;" style="padding-inline-start: 20px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 1em; list-style-position: inside; box-sizing: border-box;"><li fr-original-style="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Furthermore: The ECB also cleared RCB's sale of part of its loan portfolio to Hellenic Bank, and implemented new restrictions to the bank's operations, such as suspending it from granting new loans, making new investments and accepting new deposits.</li></ul>

Cyprus ile ilgili hikayeler