The Journey of Mehmet Şimşek and Hafize Gaye Erkan

As you know, these bulletins are written to address issues related to institutional capacity. While contemplating the clearest indicator of an institutional or general collapse of capacity, I felt the need to revisit previous issues of the bulletin you are currently reading. We have published approximately 40 bulletins since 2020. Starting with the bulletin I wrote on October 7, 2020, I highlighted Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Berat Albayrak, Lütfü Elvan, Naci Ağbal, Şahap Kavcıoğlu, Nurettin Nebati, and Murat Uysal in descending order of significance. These individuals have all surpassed the capacities of their respective institutions. If only these names had been recognized as leaders and pioneers while they were still aligned with their institutions. Unfortunately, the situation is quite the opposite. Except for Elvan and Ağbal to some extent, almost all of these individuals have focused on increasing Erdoğan's personal management capacity and influence, rather than preserving the institutional capacity they were entrusted with. The way these individuals are referred to, separate from the functioning and human resources of the institutions, serves as a strong indication of the institutional collapse that we have been reporting on in our bulletins.

Adding to the list of names mentioned above, we now have a new "DUO": Mehmet Şimşek and Hafize Gaye Erkan. As you may have observed in last week's newsletter, Erdoğan conducted an election campaign that relied less on promises and more on securitization politics. Although I thought it was unlikely for the Şimşek move to occur after the election, Erdogan surprised me by making this move. Şimşek, a former minister well-known for his achievements, has returned to a ministerial position. However, this time he faces a much more formidable task: Erdogan's persistent interest rate policy. In fact, during a plane journey on June 14, Erdoğan made the following statement to journalists close to him, "Of course, some friends should not be under the misapprehension that 'the President is making a serious change in interest rate policies'. I am of the same opinion here. However, considering the current perspective of our Minister of Treasury and Finance, we have accepted that he should swiftly and easily take the necessary steps in collaboration with the Central Bank. We wished him 'good luck' and thus expressed our determination to reduce inflation to single digits."

The keyword here is "accepted." Erdoğan does not say "we accepted"; he conveys that he reluctantly, hesitantly, and grudgingly permitted Şimşek to implement his policies. He emphasizes the limited time available and the need for swift implementation of any measures. Frankly speaking, I found it peculiar that Erdoğan made the move involving Şimşek, but I presumed that if he did, Şimşek would be in a very strong position. However, Erdoğan's statements indicate that Şimşek's influence is actually quite weak. Perhaps Şimşek's tenure as a minister will be shorter than initially anticipated.