Turkey’s pivotal moment: Presidential candidate İmamoğlu detained

In under 24 hours, Turkey witnessed a political earthquake as the opposition’s presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul Mayor, had his university diploma revoked and was detained along with more than 100 others.

On Tuesday afternoon, deep-rooted Istanbul University’s (IU) executive board issued a statement revoking the diploma of Ekrem İmamoğlu and dozens of others who transferred to IU from other universities.

Why does it matter? Turkey’s electoral law requires the president to have a valid university diploma. Erdoğan himself has faced questions over the validity of his university diploma, claims that he dismissed.

Legal scholars maintained that İmamoğlu’s transfer was lawful, and added that the university’s executive board did not have the authority to cancel the diploma, saying that only the faculty that issued the diploma has the right.

Regardless, as things stood on Thursday evening, İmamoğlu was effectively barred from standing against the candidate of AK Party, which has ruled for over 20 years under Erdoğan’s leadership.

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In the early hours of Wednesday morning, the police raided the homes of İmamoğlu and 100 others to detain them. These names included İmamoğlu’s close advisors, business associates, and other mayors working under Istanbul Municipality.

These simultaneous detentions were made under two separate investigations: In the first investigation, İmamoğlu was described as the “leader of a criminal organization” and accused of corruption along with 99 other people. In the second investigation, an arrest warrant was issued for İmamoğlu and 6 others on charges of “aiding a terrorist organization”.

Imamoğlu posted a video on Wednesday morning apparently reacting to the move, with the caption “A blow to the will of the nation”.

Looking ahead: If İmamoğlu is convicted under terror charges, the Interior Ministry will appoint a new trustee-mayor.

State of emergency

The governor’s office issued a statement at the same time as the arrests:

“All kinds of meetings, demonstrations and press statements have been banned for 4 days between March 19-23 in order to maintain public order throughout the province and to prevent any provocative actions that may occur.”

March 23 is especially important as this is the date that the main opposition party CHP was planning to hold its primary, formally announcing İmamoğlu as their candidate for the presidential election. Moreover, Turkey’s penal law allows for detentions to last up to 4 days. These mean that İmamoğlu could formally become the candidate while detained.

The ruling AK Party took additional steps to prevent the masses from protesting the decision. Namely, bandwidth restrictions were applied to digital platforms such as X, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, TikTok, Telegram, Signal. Access to WhatsApp is also restricted.

Markets react, Lira tumbles

Markets reacted quickly to the news of early morning arrests. Lira, already suffering from years of hyperinflation and economic crisis, saw historic lows against foreign currency and gold. At one point, the USD to TRY exchange rate reached above 41, a sudden jump from yesterday’s 36. Making a statement after the sudden exchange rate movements, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said, “Everything necessary for the healthy functioning of the markets is being done. The economic program we are implementing continues with determination.”

Bankers say at least $5 billion in foreign currency was sold by the central bank on Wednesday, but some calculate it may have already reached $10 billion for the day.

The stock exchange also dropped significantly, forcing the Istanbul Exchange to apply circuit breakers and halt trading at intervals. 

Reactions

From political scientists to opposition MPs, many are likening today’s developments to a coup. CHP leader Özgür Özel said the following:

“Deciding in place of the people, using force to replace or prevent the will of the people is a coup d'état. At the moment, a force is in place to prevent the nation from electing the next president. We are facing a coup attempt against our next president.”

Internationally, mayors from around the European Union are expressing support for Istanbul.

Many legal battles

İmamoğlu clenched the powerful office of Mayor of Istanbul, one that Erdoğan himself used to hold, from the ruling AK Party back in the local elections of 2019. Since that first election, he was Erdoğan's primary target. In a scandalous decision, the election board asked for the Istanbul election to be repeated, and Imamoğlu won the second election with a much wider margin.

He was elected as Mayor again in 2023 but his time in office is marked by a myriad of lawsuits directed against him, the municipality, and allies. In fact, he was put on trial for having insulted a public official. He was accused of calling the ones who canceled the Istanbul mayoral election of March 2019 "fools". The first hearing was in January 2022 and in December 2022 he was sentenced to 2 years, 7 months, and 15 days imprisonment and given a political ban in accordance with Article 53 of the Turkish Criminal Code. İmamoğlu has appealed the verdict, and his ban from politics does not apply as long as he is pending trial.

His legal troubles are not limited to this by any means. Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office launched an investigation against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in January, saying that the popular mayor's remarks criticizing Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor Akın Gürlek constituted a "threat."

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